Thursday, June 08, 2017
YouGov Final Election Bullshit Forecast - Tories Increased Majority But on 302 Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
YouGov are turning themselves into first class headline grabbing bullshit artists. Having gained mainstream media attention with their first of a series of headline grabbing seat forecasts just over a week ago that stated they were forecasting that the Conservatives would actually LOSE seats by falling to 310 with Labour rising to 247 i.e. a hung parliament. And with their latest Conservative seats forecast of 302, with Labour rising to 269. Now barely hours before the polls open YouGov are running with an headline that implies the EXACT OPPOSITE RESULT! "Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority". So could someone explain to me how is one expected to capitalise / utilise / interpret YouGov's two alternative outcome forecasts?
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Thursday, June 08, 2017
The Subprime 2.0 Debt Bubble is About to Burst / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017
As we’ve been outlining for weeks now, Subprime 2.0 is the subprime auto-loan industry. And just as the collapse in the subprime mortgage lending was what signaled the beginning of the housing crisis… trouble in the subprime auto-loan industry will be what signals that the next Debt Crisis is here.
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Thursday, June 08, 2017
Constructive Stock Market Consolidation or Potential Topping Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
The stock market had a volatile session, gapping up at the opening, coming down sharply in a 5-wave decline, and reaching the lows by midday. After taking out support they rallied sharply, taking the Nasdaq 100 from 5846 all the way up to 5883. The S&P 500 bounced from 2424 to 2435. A last 10-minute pullback pared back the profits, but they did finish in the positive column, but not with the best technicals.
Net on the day, the Dow was up 37.46 at 21,173.69. The S&P 500 was up 3.81 at 2433.14. The Nasdaq 100 was up 20.82 at 5877.59.
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Thursday, June 08, 2017
Geopolitical Risks in Retreat. Will Gold Drown? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
In the previous edition of the Market Overview we wrote that “geopolitical risks clearly won with a hawkish Fed in a tug of war in the gold market” at the turn of March and April, as the yellow metal gained about 7 percent from mid-March to mid-April. However, the price of gold declined about 4.8 percent until May 9 when it started its rebound. As the chart below shows, at the beginning of July, the price of gold came close to the level of mid-April.
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Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Sheffiled City Council / Amey Trees Rampage Costs Labour Sheffield Hallam Election Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
The Labour party smells blood in Sheffield Hallam having come within just 4% of winning the former Liberal Democrat Leader, Nick Clegg's seat in2015. And now with little signs of Liberal Democrat recovery in the polls, Labour are going all out to take the Sheffield Hallam seat in tomorrows vote.
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Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Spread Betting Market Arbitrage and BetFair Trading UK General Election 2017 / ElectionOracle / Spread Betting
So Theresa May's snap general election campaign is nearly over and where my forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win with 358 seats on a majority of 66. With Labour losing 20 seats falling to 212. So following my my forecast conclusion my search has been on to identify spread and Betfair exchange betting market opportunities for these last few days and then hours ahead of the election result as I cover in this video analysis.
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Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Election 2017 Seats Analysis YG / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
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Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Will Amey Trees Rampage Cost Paul Blomfield Sheffield Central Labour Seat, Green Win? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
The Green Party are fielding their party leader Natalie Bennett in the Sheffield Central constituency hoping to unseat Paul Blomfield from what has been a rock solid Labour seat since 1945, to whom the Labour baton was passed in 2010 from Richard Caborn. The Green party are eager to capitalise on local issues such as the felling of thousands of Sheffied's big and beautiful trees by the Spanish Ferrovial Family owned Amey as part of a £2 billion PFI outsourcing contract by Labour Sheffield City Council that has angered and outraged many tens of thousands of Sheffielders, prompting dozens of campaign groups to spring up that will likely play a major role in the oucome of the next 2018 local elections.
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Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Gold Price Breakout? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Gold actually broke its bear market trend line last year. There was never any doubt that a new bull market had begun.
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Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Gold Price Is Facing 1295.44 Resistance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
After touching the ascending trend line from the January 27 low of 1180.51 to the March 10 low of 1194.94 on its daily chart, XAUUSD rebounded strongly from 1214.17 and the pair is now facing 1295.44 resistance.
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Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Bitcoin Hits New All Time High Near $3,000 As Cryptos Surpass $100 Billion Market Cap / Currencies / Bitcoin
Are we witnessing the biggest wealth transfer in human history? A case can certainly be made for it.
One year ago, cryptocurrencies as a sector had a market capitalization of only $11 billion. Looking back even further, four years ago, the entire sector including bitcoin had a market capitalization of less than $1 billion.
As of today, it has surpassed $100 billion.
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Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Gold Price Rallies / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Gold futures have risen to 1298.65 thus far today. I have redrawn the chart to show a probable Broadening Wedge that may allow gold to rally to the Cycle Top at 1335.49. However, I would approach this projection with care, since today Wave 5 has reached equality with Wave 1 and the Cycles Model shows peak strength today, as well. The Broadening Wedge does not require the final rally to touch the upper trendline. Despite all this, should there be a flash crash in equities, gold may still rally higher.
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Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Bitcoin Price Appreciates Again / Currencies / Bitcoin
Bitcoin is creeping into the mainstream press. Last week, the digital currency was in the center of an article in the Economist. In the article, we read:
Markets frequently froth and bubble, but the boom in bitcoin, a digital currency, is extraordinary. Although its price is down from an all-time high of $2,420 on May 24th, it has more than doubled in just two months. Anyone clever or lucky enough to have bought $1,000 of bitcoins in July 2010, when the price stood at $0.05, would now have a stash worth $46m. Other cryptocurrencies have soared, too, giving them a collective market value of about $80bn.
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Wednesday, June 07, 2017
UK General Election 2017 Forecast: Conservative 358, Labour 212 Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
My recent video analysis concluded in seats per political parties forecast conclusion for Theresa May's snap BrExit general election, based up on the sum of 6 weeks analysis that is set against the opinion pollsters who are literally all over the place with YouGov even today forecasting 304 seats for the Tories whilst others range to as high as 385 seats.
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Wednesday, June 07, 2017
UK Thin Blue Police Line - Those Were the May Days / Politics / UK Politics
Is it sheer hubris, or is it just incompetence? It’s a question often asked when it comes to politics. And regularly, the answer is both. Still, what the ruling British political class has put on display recently seems to exist in a category all its own. Less than a year go, then-PM David Cameron lost the Brexit referendum that he called himself and was dead sure he would win by a landslide.
His successor Theresa May, Cameron’s Home Secretary and a staunch Remain advocate, lost the Brexit vote as much as her PM did, but stayed on, was promoted, and acted for 11 months like Downing Street 10 was hers by Divine Decree. Then she did the exact same thing Cameron did: she looked at polling numbers and decided to go for the jugular: more power through a snap vote.
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Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Why Airlines Are The Next Big Trade / Companies / Sector Analysis
BY JARED DILLIAN : I’m a longtime airline bull, going all the way back to 2012–2013—long before it was trendy.
I liked airlines because everyone hated them. Especially Warren Buffett, who once said that someone should have shot Orville and Wilbur out of the sky. He now owns the stocks.
A pilot wrote a great article in The New York Times saying that the conventional wisdom about airlines (which is that they suck) is all wrong.
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Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Here’s A Closer Look At North Korea’s Artillery Capabilities / Politics / North Korea
By Geopolitical Futures : As Pyongyang, Washington, and other regional players prepare for the prospect of war, North Korea’s nuclear program and ballistic missile capabilities have received undue amounts of attention. Important though they may be, they have less bearing on how the war will be fought than does North Korea’s conventional military.
Eliminating Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities would be the first objective in a war, and indeed the justification for an attack. The second objective would be to protect South Korea from North Korean retaliation.
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Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Nick Clegg's Desperate Election 2017 Message to Sheffield Hallam Voters / ElectionOracle / Sheffield
Nick Clegg attempting to cling on to to his Sheffield Hallam seat has sent a desperate personal message to many Sheffield Hallam voters, highlighting all of the campaigning he has done in the area in respect of local schools and Sheffield Trees being chopped down. Though given what has subsequent come to pass then the campaigning has proved to be mostly ineffectual. Anyway here is Nick Clegg's message to the voters of Sheffield Hallam, a tight election race which Nick Clegg barely leads Labour by 4%.
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Tuesday, June 06, 2017
UK General Election 2017 Spread Betting Arbitrage to Lock in Risk Less Profits! / ElectionOracle / Spread Betting
With the opinion polls all over the as illustrated by the pollster based Conservative Party seats forecasts wide range from 304 (YouGov) to 380 . The spread betting markets are throwing up a disparate range of possibilities to arbitrage between the different quotes across a range of spread bet market makers.
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Tuesday, June 06, 2017
Tips for Choosing the Best Credit Card / Personal_Finance / Credit Cards & Scoring
When the time comes to get a credit card, you’ll have to take a moment to research your available options. Having a card certainly has its privileges. You’ll never need to worry about walking around with lots of cash in your pocket again. Plus, you get to experience an added sense of security by having access to cash and credit at a moment’s notice.
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