Friday, June 09, 2017
UK Financial Markets Calm in Election Storm, is the BBC Exit Poll Wrong? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Within minutes of Britain's 50,000 polling stations closing at 10pm tonight, the BBC / ITV / Sky joint Exit Poll has been released for the UK General Election 2017 that forecasts a shock election result - Conservatives on 314, Labour on 266, Lib Dems on 14 and the SNP on 34 which implied a shock hung parliament election result that was expected to trigger market panic as happened following the EU Referendum.
Thursday, June 08, 2017
Nick Clegg Forecast to Win Sheffield Hallam - 75% Probability / ElectionOracle / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
Whilst the BBC's shock hung parliament exit poll currently forecasts that Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat is too close to call meaning that Labour could take it. This is backed up by BBC reporting of worried voices out of Lib Dems at the count. However according to the betting markets as illustrated by Betfair have following the close of polls marginally shifted in Nick Clegg's favour currently pricing Nick Clegg on 1.14 against Labour on 1.44 which converts into an implied probability of about 70% to 75% for Nick Clegg winning Sheffield Hallam (when taking into account Labour trading at 1.44).
Thursday, June 08, 2017
BBC Exit Poll Forecasts Shock Hung Parliament - Conservative 314, Labour 266, SNP 34 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Within minutes of Britain's 50,000 polling stations closing at 10pm tonight, the BBC / ITV / Sky joint Exit Poll has been released for the UK General Election 2017 that forecasts a shock election result - Conservatives on 314, Labour on 266, Lib Dems on 14 and the SNP on 34 which implies a shock hung parliament election result! - MARKETS PANIC!
Thursday, June 08, 2017
UK General Election BBC Exit Polls Forecast Accuracy / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Over 50,000 polling stations are open today across the UK to cope with the expected demand from an estimated 32 million voters out of a total of approx 47 million eligible to vote. With all eyes turned to the next big event of election night, the BBC EXIT POLL to follow within minutes of the polls closing at 10pm. Which unlike the multitudes of daily opinion polls that have been all over the place for the past month, the exit poll should provide an accurate gauge of what is the probable outcome of the general election some 6 hours before enough seats have been counted to make the actual result clear.
Thursday, June 08, 2017
Hidden Costs You Need To Be Careful With When Taking Out A Business Loan / Companies / SME
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
There are various situations in which a business loan is necessary. This is a very important decision, no matter why the money is needed. The problem with various business loans is that the borrower does not fully read the contract. Automatic signing is much more common than it should be. There are so many possible hidden costs that could appear and that have to be identified. It is easy to learn how to apply for a debt consolidation loan online or any other loan but it is more difficult to avoid those hidden costs. In order to help, here are those that appear more often than others. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 08, 2017
FTSE Stocks, Bonds and Sterling Calm Ahead of UK Election Result Storm? / ElectionOracle / Financial Markets 2017
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK stocks, bonds and sterling were calm ahead of the result of the UK general election, where effectively the financial markets are discounting a Conservative election victory on an INCREASED majority in Theresa May's BrExit election, where the higher the number of seats gained by the Tories then the more positive the market response is likely to be. However should the markets also get it wrong this time as they had for the EU Referendum then all hell could once more break lose. But for the time being the markets are calm.
Thursday, June 08, 2017
This Is The Most Profound Shift The US Economy Has Ever Seen / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
By Stephen McBride : This year, the first Baby Boomers turned 70, and that spells trouble for the economy and financial markets.
Speaking at Mauldin Economics’ Strategic Investment Conference, chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff, David Rosenberg, dissected the wide-ranging implications of the wave of Baby Boomers now retiring.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 08, 2017
People Will Live Past Age 100, Yet Most Of Them Won’t Afford It / Personal_Finance / Longevity
By: John_Mauldin
I have good news and bad news.
The good news is that you and your children will probably have much longer lives than you imagine. The bad news is that you’ll have to pay the bill for it.
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Thursday, June 08, 2017
Stocks Trade At Record Highs, Will Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Paul_Rejczak
Our intraday outlook is now bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Thursday, June 08, 2017
This is the Energy Company the Market Wants to Buy Now / Companies / Energy Resources
By: WallStreetNation
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Thursday, June 08, 2017
GBPUSD Remains in Uptrend from 1.2109 / Currencies / British Pound
By: Franco_Shao
GBPUSD moved sideways in a trading range between 1.2756 and 1.3047. As long as the pair is above 1.2756 support, the sideways movement could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from the March 14 low of 1.2109, and further rise could be expected after the consolidation. Near term resistance is at 1.3047, a break of this level could signal resumption of the uptrend.
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Thursday, June 08, 2017
General Election Latest Opinion Polls and Betting Market Forecasts / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The 2017 General Election has proved to be one of the most volatile elections in terms of the polls for decades, which has seen the opinion polls based forecasters literally playing pin the tail on the donkey since Theresa May called the BrExit election. Virtually all of the pollsters started the campaign by forecasting a Tory landslide Conservative election victory of over 400 seats that mostly persisted until barely to 2 weeks ago as the following table illustrates:
Thursday, June 08, 2017
YouGov Final Election Bullshit Forecast - Tories Increased Majority But on 302 Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
YouGov are turning themselves into first class headline grabbing bullshit artists. Having gained mainstream media attention with their first of a series of headline grabbing seat forecasts just over a week ago that stated they were forecasting that the Conservatives would actually LOSE seats by falling to 310 with Labour rising to 247 i.e. a hung parliament. And with their latest Conservative seats forecast of 302, with Labour rising to 269. Now barely hours before the polls open YouGov are running with an headline that implies the EXACT OPPOSITE RESULT! "Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority". So could someone explain to me how is one expected to capitalise / utilise / interpret YouGov's two alternative outcome forecasts?
Thursday, June 08, 2017
The Subprime 2.0 Debt Bubble is About to Burst / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017
By: Graham_Summers
As we’ve been outlining for weeks now, Subprime 2.0 is the subprime auto-loan industry. And just as the collapse in the subprime mortgage lending was what signaled the beginning of the housing crisis… trouble in the subprime auto-loan industry will be what signals that the next Debt Crisis is here.
Thursday, June 08, 2017
Constructive Stock Market Consolidation or Potential Topping Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market had a volatile session, gapping up at the opening, coming down sharply in a 5-wave decline, and reaching the lows by midday. After taking out support they rallied sharply, taking the Nasdaq 100 from 5846 all the way up to 5883. The S&P 500 bounced from 2424 to 2435. A last 10-minute pullback pared back the profits, but they did finish in the positive column, but not with the best technicals.
Net on the day, the Dow was up 37.46 at 21,173.69. The S&P 500 was up 3.81 at 2433.14. The Nasdaq 100 was up 20.82 at 5877.59.
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Thursday, June 08, 2017
Geopolitical Risks in Retreat. Will Gold Drown? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In the previous edition of the Market Overview we wrote that “geopolitical risks clearly won with a hawkish Fed in a tug of war in the gold market” at the turn of March and April, as the yellow metal gained about 7 percent from mid-March to mid-April. However, the price of gold declined about 4.8 percent until May 9 when it started its rebound. As the chart below shows, at the beginning of July, the price of gold came close to the level of mid-April.
Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Sheffiled City Council / Amey Trees Rampage Costs Labour Sheffield Hallam Election Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: N_Walayat
The Labour party smells blood in Sheffield Hallam having come within just 4% of winning the former Liberal Democrat Leader, Nick Clegg's seat in2015. And now with little signs of Liberal Democrat recovery in the polls, Labour are going all out to take the Sheffield Hallam seat in tomorrows vote.
Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Spread Betting Market Arbitrage and BetFair Trading UK General Election 2017 / ElectionOracle / Spread Betting
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So Theresa May's snap general election campaign is nearly over and where my forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win with 358 seats on a majority of 66. With Labour losing 20 seats falling to 212. So following my my forecast conclusion my search has been on to identify spread and Betfair exchange betting market opportunities for these last few days and then hours ahead of the election result as I cover in this video analysis.
Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Election 2017 Seats Analysis YG / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
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Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Will Amey Trees Rampage Cost Paul Blomfield Sheffield Central Labour Seat, Green Win? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: N_Walayat
The Green Party are fielding their party leader Natalie Bennett in the Sheffield Central constituency hoping to unseat Paul Blomfield from what has been a rock solid Labour seat since 1945, to whom the Labour baton was passed in 2010 from Richard Caborn. The Green party are eager to capitalise on local issues such as the felling of thousands of Sheffied's big and beautiful trees by the Spanish Ferrovial Family owned Amey as part of a £2 billion PFI outsourcing contract by Labour Sheffield City Council that has angered and outraged many tens of thousands of Sheffielders, prompting dozens of campaign groups to spring up that will likely play a major role in the oucome of the next 2018 local elections.