Thursday, February 24, 2022
Energy Shock: Ukraine Crisis to Push Inflation Higher / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
As Russia initiates military action in Ukraine, pain at the pump is about to get even worse.
Fuel costs have already been soaring due to oil and gas supply constraints coupled with broader inflationary pressures. The national average for a gallon of regular unleaded is $3.55 – up 75 cents from a year ago. Some parts of the country are paying closer to $5.00 per gallon.
Now the threat of full-scale war in Ukraine is sending risk premiums in futures markets even higher. Crude oil futures jumped to over $100 per barrel ahead of the U.S. market open on Thursday morning.
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Thursday, February 24, 2022
UK Inflation at 30-year high / Economics / Inflation
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
The rate of inflation in the UK is at its highest point for 30 years, according to recent government figures. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that the consumer price index (CPI) used to measure inflation had risen to 5.5% for January 2022. Not since March 1992 (7.1%) have levels been this high and economists predict it could even eclipse that benchmark by April.
All of which is concerning news for the average consumer, but what exactly is inflation, how is it measured and what is causing it? Can the living wage keep up? And what are the potential consequences of such an increase? Read on to find out more.
Thursday, February 24, 2022
How to invest your money long-term / Personal_Finance / Learning to Invest
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Are you planning to invest long-term? Before jumping right in, it is always recommended to have a good knowledge on the matter, because otherwise you would be risking your money. Making the right choices is the key for a good investment and for having safer returns. It is never late to start a long-term investment, either for after your retirement or for eventual future needs. There are different options available to be considered. This way you will understand what is right for you and what is your investor’s profile. A piece of advice: always have some funds in an emergency fund for any urgency you may have to face in the future. Aside that, it is advisable to find accounts that let you to have access to your money at all time. While making your research and reading through some materials, most likely you are going to find these two options, so let’s see the difference between SIPP and ISA.
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Tuesday, February 22, 2022
Stock Trade-of-the-Week: Golden Ocean Group Ltd. (GOGL) / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Donald_W_Dony
Company profile: Golden Ocean Group Limited, a shipping company, owns and operates a fleet of dry bulk vessels comprising Newcastlemax, Capesize, Panamax, and Ultramax vessels worldwide. It owns and operates dry bulk vessels in the spot and time charter markets. The company transports bulk commodities, such as ores, coal, grains, and fertilizers. As of March 18, 2021, it owned a fleet of 67 dry bulk vessels. Golden Ocean Group Limited is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.
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Tuesday, February 22, 2022
Global Economic Recovery challenges amid new data on lingering pandemics / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
There is a common denominator between the Chinese holiday season and the COVID fight. That’s the effort to recover the pre-pandemic demand even amid new global waves of variants. There are lessons, too.Around the world retailers aspire to reinforce sales during major holidays, which have a “multiplier effect” on revenue generation. Such efforts have greater impact when authorities implement additional policy measures to foster consumption.
With the new COVID-19 flare-ups in several cities, including Omicron infections in several Chinese cities, the country’s top economic planner, the NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission) took measures to increase holiday spending and boost the economy during the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, along with the Valentine’s Day.
What was the outcome?
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Tuesday, February 22, 2022
What Should You Consider When Taking a Payday Loan? / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans
By: Submissions
Online loans are booming in the United States. Financial companies can easily issue loans without requiring documents on the financial condition of the borrower. They compensate for this generosity with high rates on loans and harsh penalties for late repayment.
The ease of obtaining online credit makes this financial service accessible to all segments of the population. Services are provided without documents confirming the financial condition of the borrower. Often the borrower cannot realize the consequences that await him after signing a loan agreement.
The so-called payday loans are in great demand among borrowers. These are loans for up to one month and no more than one minimum wage. Online loans, as small as 200 dollar loans before paycheck are attracted by the ease of obtaining them. But it should be borne in mind that the cost of one day of use will be more than the market average. Also, such agreements usually suggest colossal fines and penalties for late online paycheck loans.
Monday, February 21, 2022
Dow Max Drawdown Bear Stock Market 2022 - Accumulating Deviations from the Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Did you get a good heads up warning of the BEAR MARKETS current down phase BEFORE it began?
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Monday, February 21, 2022
US stagflation overshadows China’s Economic recovery and global prospects / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Recently, the IMF downgraded global growth prospects, due to projected slowdowns in the US and China. Negative prospects could be overcome with right policies, such as trade cooperation.Recently, the International Monetary Fund projected that global growth rate will slow to 4.4% in 2022. In the dire international landscape, global recovery has remained elusive dream since 2017, when US trade wars derailed the impending expansion. Today, unwarranted geopolitics escalate tensions.
Worse, the failure to roll out vaccines could knock another $1.5 trillion from incomes across the South, according to UNCTAD report last fall.
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Monday, February 21, 2022
Is It Worth Adding Gold to Your Portfolio in 2022? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold prices declined in 2021 and the prospects for 2022 are not impressive as well. However, the yellow metal’s strategic relevance remains high.Last month, the World Gold Council published two interesting reports about gold. The first one is the latest edition of Gold Demand Trends, which summarizes the entire last year. Gold supply decreased 1%, while gold demand rose 10% in 2021. Despite these trends, the price of gold declined by around 4%, which – for me – undermines the validity of the data presented by the WGC.
I mean here that the relevance of some categories of gold demand (jewelry demand, technological demand, the central bank’s purchases) for the price formation is somewhat limited. The most important driver for gold prices is investment demand. Unsurprisingly, this category plunged 43% in 2021, driven by large ETF outlfows.
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Monday, February 21, 2022
Why the "60 / 40 Balance" May Be Hazardous to Your Stocks Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
Notice the similar pattern between these two bond charts
Financial advisors have long advocated a mix of 60% stocks / 40% bonds to cushion portfolios from downturns in the stock market.
The thinking is that stocks go up in the long-term, hence, that's where investors should allocate the most. At the same time, advisors acknowledge that stock prices can sometimes go down so "less risky" bonds will provide at least some protection.
The problem with this investment strategy is that bonds can go into bear markets too. Moreover, they can do so at the same time as stocks.
Let's review what happened during the Great Depression of the early 1930s. Here's a chart and commentary from Robert Prechter's 2021 Last Chance to Conquer the Crash:
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Saturday, February 19, 2022
Dow Stock Market Expected Max Drawdown 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My timely analysis (HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond) that laid the ground work for how to invest during the anticipated waves of deep deviations from the highs in each of the stocks one by one that concluded in the following table of how low I expected each of the stocks to trade down to as a guide to where to target he bulk of ones planned buying in favour of those stocks that presented the greatest low to high potential price move.
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Friday, February 18, 2022
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My timely analysis (HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond) that laid the ground work for how to invest during the anticipated waves of deep deviations from the highs in each of the stocks one by one that concluded in the following table of how low I expected each of the stocks to trade down to as a guide to where to target he bulk of ones planned buying in favour of those stocks that presented the greatest low to high potential price move.
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Friday, February 18, 2022
Crypto Will Devour the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency
By: Stephen_McBride
Longtime RiskHedge readers know crypto is one of the best moneymaking opportunities in the world. Cryptos like Ethereum (ETH) have outperformed even the hottest stocks by 10X in the past few years.
And we’re still only in the first inning of this opportunity. For example, did you know Apple (AAPL) is larger than the entire crypto market?
This fact alone makes my big call sound totally absurd…
Crypto will devour the stock market.
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Friday, February 18, 2022
Useful Budgeting Tips for a Home Renovation / Housing-Market / Home Improvements
By: Steve_Barker
Are you in the process of planning a home renovation? If so, you're probably trying to figure out how to fit the project into your budget. It can be tricky to stay on track when working with a limited amount of money. But don't worry, you’re in the right place! This article will guide you through some tips to consider while budgeting for your home renovation.
Look at Cost vs. Value
When planning your budget, consider both the cost and the value of each renovation project. Some projects, like a new roof or windows, offer good value for the money. Other projects, like a kitchen remodel or home addition, may be more expensive, but can also increase the value of your home. It’s crucial to weigh up the cost and benefits of each project before deciding which ones to include in your budget. Knowing the average kitchen renovation cost worldwide will help you plan your kitchen renovation project budget.
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Friday, February 18, 2022
Storm Eunice Heading for Sheffeld - Risk of Trees Blowing Over - Extreme Weather / Local / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
Storm Eunice Heading for Sheffeld - Risk of Trees Blowing Over - Extreme Weather
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Friday, February 18, 2022
2 Ways To Play The Commodity Boom In 2022 / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: OilPrice_Com
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Thursday, February 17, 2022
Gold: Break-Out or Fake-Out? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: The_Gold_Report
Michael Ballanger looks at the recent rise in the gold price in light of what is happening in the broader markets and geopolitical activity.
Before I expand upon the events of the past week that caught my increasingly illusory attention span, I wish to impart upon my readers one of the many chasms that separate the generational narratives these days. When I first entered the Hallowed Halls of Bay Street in 1977, I was trained by men and women that can only be described as “warriors” in the sense that they carried a code of conduct into battle each and every day. Notwithstanding the blue blazers and grey-flannel slacks accompanying the perfunctory buttoned-down dress shirt, there was never a day nor occasion, no matter how casual, that did not demand a jacket and tie.
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Thursday, February 17, 2022
Stock Market Stumbling Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 rebound goes on reflexively, but stormy clouds are gathering – I‘m looking for the bears to reassert themselves over the next couple of days latest. The credit markets posture is far from raging risk-on even though select commodities are recovering (what else to expect in a secular commodities bull) and precious metals suffered a modest setback (not a reversal though). Crypto recovery is nodding towards the risk-on upturn that is though likely to get checked soon.
It‘s great that tech was the driver of yesterday‘s S&P 500 upswing, but for how long would it keep leadership now that attention is shifting back towards inflation. Yesterday I wrote that:
(...) rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.
So far the stock market advance hasn‘t met a brick wall, but value upswing has been sold into (unlike tech‘s). Energy stocks lost, but are likely to come back – and the next microrotation might not be powerful enough to carry S&P 500 higher. Anyway without a HYG upswing, stock bulls are facing stiff headwinds.
Thursday, February 17, 2022
This Rare Gas Is Now Worth 100X More Than Natural Gas / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: OilPrice_Com
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Wednesday, February 16, 2022
Stock Market Mean Reversion / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 refused further downside yesterday, and while credit markets didn‘t move much, rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.
For now, the war drums took the limelight away, but don‘t count on gold, silver or oil correcting significantly and lastingly. Cryptos are supporting the return of risk-on as the touted war just isn‘t happening either today or tomorrow, and market participants are dialing back the panicky bets. That‘s why Treasuries and tech movements are so key these days – copper trading shows that we‘re in for paring back of the fire sales. I can‘t call it a full fledged stock market reversal, not yet.