Monday, September 06, 2021
Surging US Home Prices and Gold – What’s the Link? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
US home prices are surging, increasingly raising worries about inflation. Could gold follow houses? If so, why?Home price growth in the US has accelerated even further, reaching a new record. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose from 255.3 in May to 260.9 in June, boosting the annual percentage gain from 16.8% to 18.1%, as the chart below shows. That’s the largest jump since 1988 when the series began.
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Sunday, September 05, 2021
S&P 500 Rallies To New All-Time Highs – Are The Markets About To Break Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The S&P 500 rallied to new highs early in September after the US Federal Reserve statements indicating continued support of the US economy and easy money policies. It appears the markets have fallen back into bullish trending mode which may continue throughout September and into the end of 2021 through the Christmas Rally phase.
Q3:2021 Earnings & The 2021 Christmas Rally Are Pending
Although we can see a new, more moderate, price trend taking place on this S&P 500 (ES) Weekly Chart, below, we are starting to see a new rally phase setting up as traders push prices higher to close out Q3:2021 in expectation of continued strong earnings.
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Sunday, September 05, 2021
Bond Conundrum - Boom or Bust for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation has risen, but bond yields have declined. Such a divergence is strange — beware gold bulls!Would you like to see something mysterious? If yes, please look at the chart below. It shows the yields on 10-year US Treasuries (red line) and CPI annual inflation rates (blue line) in recent years. As you can see, a huge divergence emerged this year: while inflation surged above 5%, nominal bond yields declined from 1.6% to 1.3%.
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Sunday, September 05, 2021
How the sale of a Sting CD sparked an Entire Online Industry / Companies / Internet
By: Stephen_McBride
On an August afternoon in 1994, 21-year-old Dan Kohn made history.Kohn had just sold a CD to a man in Philadelphia through his clunky website.
The man paid $12.48 plus shipping for a copy of "Ten Summoner’s Tales" by the rock star Sting.
Why was this such a big deal?
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Sunday, September 05, 2021
Three Years of Fresh Thinking With Scott Dylan and Dave Antrobus / Companies / SME
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Since launching in 2018, the Mancunian capital investment agency Fresh Thinking Group has helped numerous businesses achieve their desired growth.
There are over 500,000 distressed companies in the UK. That’s just one of the reasons why private equity and distressed M&A investor Scott Dylan teamed up with award-winning technology specialist Dave Antrobus to launch Fresh Thinking in 2018. The forward-thinking capital investment group offers the personalised support and funding these distressed companies need to flourish in their markets.
Since kickstarting the group’s plans to help companies in digital and logistics markets transform their business models, the two entrepreneurs have achieved a huge level of success in raising Fresh Thinking’s profile. Here’s how they’ve helped companies across the UK launch, recover, and grow over the past three years.
Saturday, September 04, 2021
Bitcoin Bear Market Trend Forecast 2021 and Model Crypto Portfolio Buying Levels / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Today is your lucky day for you gain FULL access to my original full spectrum analysis of the crypto markets that was first made available to Patrons who support my work, of what I expect to happen into the end of 2021 in terms of a Bitcoin price trend forecast, and the strategy I am deploying to capitalise on as well as 5 potential black swans that could collapse the crypto markets such as USDT stable coin. Furthermore you get an update of where Bitcoin price stands in terms of my trend forecast and thus what is likely to happen next.
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Saturday, September 04, 2021
The Most Actively Traded Companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange / Companies / Canada
By: Submissions
The Toronto Stock Exchange is a Canadian stock exchange based in Toronto. Based on market capitalization, it's the eighth-largest exchange in the world and the third-largest in North America. A wide range of businesses from Canada and all over the world are listed on the exchange, and along with conventional securities, traders can also access exchange-traded funds, split share corporations and investment funds.
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Friday, September 03, 2021
Stock Market Rallying on FOMO Fumes / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is continuing to rally on FOMO fumes with the Dow up 1.5% for August as the market enters the seasonally worst month of the year for stocks, followed by October, and we all know what October's tend to herald, especially for markets that have run well beyond every expectation and value metric that one can think of which is true for a wide spectrum of stocks from our AI tech giants right through to the junk that populates the likes of Cathy Woods ARK Funds, metrics as I covered in recent analysis such as the Reverse REPO market RED FLAG, then we have margin debt soaring to well beyond all previous market highs which actually would be expected in nominal terms given inflation, however Margin debt has also soared to new highs as a percentage of GDP 3.9% vs 3% in 2000. Here's another flashing RED LIGHT that of the market cap of negative earning stocks exceeding that of the dot com bubble, so folks enjoy your FOMO whilst it lasts, I personally have battened down the hatches for the hurricane that's coming our way that will likely blow novice investors out of the water, especially those who are investing on margin!
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Friday, September 03, 2021
Don’t Investing Tomahawk Yourself Just to Own a Home / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Jared_Dillian
A house is a terrible investment. But for a lot of people, it’s the best investment.
Let's unpack that…
Unless you buy a new house, you will probably spend up to 1% of the value of the house on maintenance every year.
Stuff breaks. Pipes burst, roofs leak, and occasionally the whole thing burns down. I live by the ocean, so the maintenance is relentless—constant leaks, not to mention the hurricanes. Plus, you have to pay to insure it, you have to pay the property taxes, and you have to pay for all the other stuff. And that's on top of the mortgage.
Friday, September 03, 2021
Bitcoin BTC Elliott Wave, Price Patterns and Trend Analysis Forecasts / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is my latest video based on my extensive full spectrum analysis of the crypto markets, of what I expect to happen over the next 6 months in terms of a Bitcoin price trend forecast, and the strategy I am deploying to capitalise on as well as 5 potential black swans that could collapse the crypto markets where Stable Coins such as USDT are what could be imminent catalysts for.
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Friday, September 03, 2021
Prepare Now for Brutal Economic Austerity -- Here's Why / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: EWI
Here's what's holding together a "global house of cards"
When financial times get tough, you hear the phrases "tightening our belts," "cutting back" or "making do with less."
Those are common phrases to describe the word "austerity."
If spending and borrowing had been done with moderation when times were good, then the tough times would not be as tough -- or austere.
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Friday, September 03, 2021
Will Crude Oil Prices Skyrocket in the Aftermath of Hurricane Ida? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
"Supply and demand" does not always determine the price trend of crude oil
As you probably know, Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana on August 29, the exact date that Hurricane Katrina made a Louisiana landfall sixteen years earlier.
On August 30, the Wall Street Journal said:
Oil Industry Surveys Damage After Hurricane Ida Slams Louisiana
The storm disrupted fuel supplies, and the speed of the recovery will depend on how long it takes for refineries to come online amid flooding and power outages
Did oil prices skyrocket due to the disruption in oil production? Well, Bloomberg reported (August 30) that prices initially fell 1.6% [as Ida made landfall] before they "edged" higher.
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Thursday, September 02, 2021
China’s theme park economy thriving, despite pandemic times / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Against odds, theme parks are expanding in China, thanks to rising disposable income, investor confidence, and long-term opportunities.On September 1, Universal Beijing Resort, the largest of its kind in the world, will start its trial run. It is the most recent international chain in China’s thriving theme park industry.
Over 2008 to 2017, total theme park attendance increased at 13 percent annually. Today there are more than 200 theme parks in the Chinese mainland and their numbers continue to increase.
In an era of misguided global divisions, the impressive rise of theme parks in China shows the brighter promise of foreign investment and Sino-American cooperation.
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Thursday, September 02, 2021
Fed Statements Drive New Rally Momentum In The Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last week, the US Federal Reserve reiterated statements in support of continued easy money policies and support for a recovering US economy. Additionally, Jerome Powell made a statement suggesting tightening too early could be much more damaging than waiting until sufficient headwinds are behind us. I interpret this as stating the current inflationary concerns are less important than the current global market expectations. We can likely weather moderate inflationary concerns if the economy continues to strengthen – whereas tightening right now may not reduce inflationary concerns and may prompt a broad market slowdown within the US and globally.
Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!
In short, traders and investors perceived these comments as “Here we go – off to the races again” and the US markets rallied sharply on Friday and in early trading on Monday, August 30, 2021.
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Thursday, September 02, 2021
When Will It Be Time to Sell Precious Metals? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Clients often ask when they should sell precious metals. We usually suggest one basic rule around the timing. After that, the decision to sell will depend upon whether your reasons for holding gold and silver have changed.
The basic rule is to avoid selling based on impulse. Humans are emotional creatures and studies show most of us make poor choices when it comes to timing. If you are making a snap decision to sell (or buy) based upon a surge of either fear or greed, odds are you will regret it.
The trick to avoiding an emotional decision about when to sell is to understand why you bought precious metals in the first place and stick to your guns.
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Thursday, September 02, 2021
Bittersweet Truth for Gold Stocks: What You Need to Know / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
When the Fed entices grown up kids with sweet words, they hit the candy store and stock up on gold, silver, and stocks. A sugar hangover follows.
Beware of the candyman!
With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell performing his usual dovish dance on Aug. 27, gold, silver, and mining stocks were like kids in a candy store. However, with the short-term sugar highs often leaving investors with nasty stomach aches, the sweet-and-sour nature of the precious metals’ performances may lead to pre-Halloween hangovers.
HUI Index: Harbinger of Things to Come
To explain, while the HUI Index invalidated the breakdown below its previous lows, the bullish reversal may seem quite sanguine. However, an identical development occurred in 2013 right before the index continued its sharp decline. Moreover, I warned previously that the HUI Index could record a corrective upswing of 4% to 8% (that’s what happened after the breakdown in 2013) and that it would not change the medium-term implications. And after the index rallied by more than 6% last week, the bounce is nothing to write home about.
Thursday, September 02, 2021
Facing down our investment fears, Courage comes from a strategy you can genuinely believe in / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“Gold shone with the placid certainty of received tradition. Honored through the ages, the standard of wealth, the original money, the safe haven. The value of gold was axiomatic. This view depends on a concept of gold as unchanging and unchanged—nature’s hard asset.” – Matthew Hart, Vanity Fair magazine
Facing down our investment fears
Courage comes from a strategy you can genuinely believe in
“As markets shake off their summer slumbers,” writes London-based analyst Bill Blain, “what should we be worrying about? Lots..! From real vs transitory inflation arguments, the long-term economic consequences of Covid, the future for Central Banking unable to unravel its Gordian knot of monetary experimentation, and the prospects for rising political instability in the US and Europe.”
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Tuesday, August 31, 2021
The Great Deflation of 2022 / Economics / Deflation
By: Michael_Pento
It is not very surprising to me that nearly every talking head on Wall Street is convinced inflation has now become a permanent feature in the U.S. economy. This is because most mainstream economists have no clue what is the progenitor of inflation. They have been inculcated to believe inflation is the result of a wage-price spiral caused by a low rate of unemployment.
In truth, inflation is all about the destruction of confidence in a fiat currency’s purchasing power. And there is no better way to do that than for the government to massively increase the supply of money and place it directly into the hands of its citizenry. That is exactly what occurred in the wake of the global COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. government handed out the equivalent of $50,000 to every American family in various forms of loans, grants, stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment, tax rebates, and debt forbearance measures. In other words, helicopter money and Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) were deployed—and in a big way. The result was the largest increase of inflation in 40 years.
Tuesday, August 31, 2021
Inflation Properly Defined / Economics / Inflation
By: Antonius_Aquinas
The use or rather misuse of language has always been an effective tool of politicians to enact their agendas. George Orwell’s “Politics and the English Language” brilliantly showed, in his day, how language was being manipulated for all sorts of totalitarian measures:
Read full article... Read full article...Political language — and with variations this is true of all political parties, from Conservatives to Anarchists — is designed to make lies sound truthful
and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind. One cannot change this all in a moment, but one can at least change one’s own habits, and from time to time one can even, if one jeers loudly enough, send some worn-out and useless phrase — some jackboot, Achilles’ heel, hotbed, melting pot, acid test, veritable inferno, or other lump of verbal refuse — into the dustbin, where it belongs.*
Tuesday, August 31, 2021
Gold GDX Stocks, A Proxy for the Precious Metals Complex / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Rambus_Chartology
I’ve been suggesting for some time now that the PM complex is trading at a critical inflection point where they can have a big move in either direction. It may sound like a copout but that is what an inflection point is. Many times at a critical inflection point, in the case of the PM stock indexes, support can hold beautifully or there can be a false breakout of the the S&R line which can be called a bear trap if the price action trades back above that important trendline.
Tonight I’m going to use the GDX as a proxy for the rest of the PM stock indexes which is showing us a great example of the current critical inflection point. The most basic concept in Chartology is how an important trendline can reverse its role to what had been resistance to support once broken to the upside and vise versa. The psychology behind an important trendline, using the top rail of the 2016 flat top expanding triangle on this weekly chart for the GDX below, is that when the top rail of the flat top expanding triangle was broken to the upside everyone that bought below the top rail is above water. As long as there isn’t a big breach of the top rail most will feel comfortable and not sell.
Every trendline you put on a chart is a support and resistance line, above is bullish and below is bearish. This is why we are always looking for a backtest when we see a breakout of a chart pattern. It doesn’t happen all the time but it does happen enough to always be on guard.
Lets focus on the top rail of the 2016 flat top expanding triangle that starts at the 2016 high and runs horizontally to the right side of the chart. Not many caught the double top that formed just below the 2016 trendline which led to the March 2020 crash low. As you can see there were 3 important touches from below. After the 2020 crash low was put in you can see the vertical rally that ensued but this time the top rail gave way. After several more weeks of moving higher the GDX completed its first backtest which could have been the backtest which would lead to the next important move higher but that wasn’t the case.
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