Monday, October 21, 2019
More Stock Market Congestion (Distribution) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely building intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com
Monday, October 21, 2019
Revisiting “Black Monday Stock Market Crash October 19 1987 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Back in the day, for those of you that are old enough to remember and have experienced one of the most incredible trader psychology driven stock market decline in recent history.
The difference between “Black Monday” and most of the other recent stock market declines is that October 19, 1987, was driven by a true psychological panic, what we consider true price exploration, after an incredible price rally.
It is different than the DOT COM (2001) decline and vastly different than the Credit Market Crisis (2008-09) because both of those events were related to true fundamental and technical evaluations. In both of those instances, prices have been rising for quite some time, but the underlying fundamentals of the economics of the markets collapsed and the markets collapsed with future expectations. Before we get too deep, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.
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Monday, October 21, 2019
Land Rover Discovery Sports Out of Warranty Top Money Saving Tips / ConsumerWatch / Land Rover
By: HGR
As soon as my Discovery Sports 3 year manufacturer warranty is up, up popped the dreaded yellow engine management warning light prompting a visit to the local land rover dealer for a diagnosis. Apparently the EGR Valve is failing that typically are supposed to last 10 years or 100,000 miles and the job to replace the gasket is billed at £1000!
So here are my top money saving tips for when your Land Rover Discovery Sport goes out of Warranty.
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Sunday, October 20, 2019
Investing lessons from the 1987 Stock Market Crash From Who Beat it / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's that time of the year again when the stock market doom merchants are at their most vocal as they focus on the historic apex of the darkest day of the darkest month for stocks of the year, October 19th, the 32nd anniversary of the 1987 Black Monday that saw the stock market crash by an unprecedented 22% in one day that few saw coming but ever since many prophesies the repeat of each October, regardless of what the stock market has actually done thus far each year as the perma bear crowd can always be seen literally jumping up and down like demented rabbits proclaiming that a crash is once more imminent, pointing to a myriad of harbingers of the imminent stock market apocalypse. Against which the historic record paints a picture of a coin toss having proved infinitely more accurate than the perma crash is coming calls awaiting their broken clock moment to proclaim their success.....
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Sunday, October 20, 2019
Trade Wars: Facts And Fallacies / Economics / Protectionism
By: Steve_H_Hanke
U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside many others, has a straightforward view on international trade, particularly the U.S. external balance. They believe an external deficit is a malady caused by foreigners who manipulate exchange rates, impose tariff and non-tariff barriers, steal intellectual property, and engage in unfair trade practices. The president and his followers feel the U.S. is victimized by foreigners, as reflected in the country’s negative external balance.
This mercantilist view of international trade and external accounts is wrongheaded. The negative external balance in the U.S. is not a “problem,” nor is it caused by foreigners engaging in nefarious activities. The U.S.’s negative external balance, which the country has registered every year since 1975, is “made in the USA”—a result of its savings deficiency.
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Saturday, October 19, 2019
The Gold Stocks Correction and What Lays Ahead / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
What’s In Play Now
It has been about 2 months since the gold stock sector, as represented by the HUI index, topped out. The ensuing correction has been a whipsaw affair of ups and downs, but smoothing that volatility out we find an ongoing correction in time and price that has not been too difficult to manage.
The pattern that some would call a “complex H&S” (TA-speak for a freakish pattern with too many shoulders) held a key lower high on the recent bounce to the daily chart’s SMA 50 (blue line). The neckline has been tested (and held) twice since it was created in September and the negative RSI divergence that began last summer has been guiding Huey downward.
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Saturday, October 19, 2019
Gold during Global Monetary Ease / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Another round of global monetary easing has just begun! More than 30 central banks around the world have cut interest rates this year so far. The Fed and the ECB are certainly among them. Should gold investors look forward to these policies playing out? Let’s find out how gold tends to behave during such an extraordinary period!
Ladies and Gentlemen! Another round of global monetary easing has just begun! More than 30 central banks around the world have cut interest rates this year amid trade wars and slowing economic growth and subdued inflation. The Fed cut the federal funds rate twice this year, each time by 25 basis point. In September, the ECB cut its deposit rate from minus 0.4 percent to minus 0.5 percent and reintroduced its quantitative easing, while the People’s Bank of China cut the reserve ratio by 50 basis point to 13 percent for large banks, the third time this year, releasing about $126 billion in liquidity to support the slowing economy. In August, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised investors with 50-basis point interest rate cut. The central banks of Hong Kong, Thailand, Mexico, Turkey and Russia also have cut rates recently, while the Bank of Japan may join the club soon.
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Friday, October 18, 2019
US Treasury Bonds Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team believes the US Treasuries and the US Dollar will continue to strengthen over the next 2 to 6+ weeks as foreign market and emerging market credit and debt concerns outweigh any concerns originating from the US economy or political theater. Overall, the major global economies will likely continue to see strength related to their currencies and debt instruments simply because the foreign market and emerging markets are dramatically more fragile than the more mature major global economies.
We believe the US Treasuries may surprise investors by rallying from current levels, near price resistance, to levels above $151 on the TLT chart.
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Friday, October 18, 2019
Federal Reserve’s New QE Transfers Wealth to Its Owner Banks / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: MoneyMetals
Metals investors are positioning themselves for rapidly developing political and geopolitical events, as well as a rapidly expanding Federal Reserve balance sheet.
What started out as a limited intervention to provide temporary liquidity to overnight lending markets has morphed into a massive $60-billion-per-month Treasury-buying campaign. By some measures, it’s even bigger than the last Quantitative Easing program.
The Fed has yet to fully explain why this is all necessary given the lack of an immediate crisis in the real economy. Last week, Fed chair Jerome Powell took great pains to insist that their expanded repo market operations are “not QE” – only to announce a massive new Treasury bill buying program on Friday.
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Friday, October 18, 2019
The Biggest Housing Boom in US History Has Just Begun / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
Bill Brame edited Star Trek films before he took up “house flipping.”
During the housing boom, Bill was often “turning around” 14 houses at once with three crews of renovators working full time.
In 2004, he paid $400,000 for a house in Hollywood, California. A year later he flipped it for $1.2 million.
Back then, flipping houses was the most profitable side-job in America. Buy a house, fit it with a new kitchen, sell it for a big mark-up, repeat.
In 2006, one in every 10 homes was bought to flip!
Friday, October 18, 2019
British Pound Brexit Chaos GBP Trend Forecast / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Pound fell sharply following the announcement that Parliament would be suspended so as to enable a hard Brexit. However subsequent chaos of the Governments loss of control of Parliament with Remainer's taking control of business of the house has seen a sharp bounce in sterling which is contrary to what one would expect given extreme chaos and uncertainty.
Taking a look at the British Pound since Theresa May took office July 2016 against key Brexit events paints a different picture of what is driving the British Pound where the Brexit factor is concerned.
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Thursday, October 17, 2019
Stocks Are Preparing For a Blow Off Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Stocks broke the all-important level of 3,000 on the S&P 500 yesterday. The market is now forming a triangle formation.
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Thursday, October 17, 2019
Stocks Don’t Care About Trump Impeachment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Robert_Ross
“Would Trump’s impeachment crash the market?”
A reader asked me after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a formal impeachment inquiry into President Trump’s dealings with Ukraine.
A lot of people have a vague sense that impeaching Trump is bad for stocks. Political chaos means stocks go down, right?
Well, no—not necessarily. If history is any guide, fundamentals and not politics drive the stock market.
Thursday, October 17, 2019
Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recent rotation in multiple foreign currencies hints at the fact that a new stage of the “Capital Shift” process is taking place and that skilled technical investors need to pay very close attention to how these currencies continue to react over the next 3 to 6+ months. In the recent past, most of the world’s foreign currencies were declining in value while the US Dollar continued to strengthen. In fact, we authored many research articles about these trends and how weakness in foreign currencies will drive new foreign investment into the US stock markets for two simple reasons; strength and security.
Now that a few of the world’s most mature economies, and some that may surprise you, are starting to change directions, we may be beginning a new stage of the “capital shift” process that may open up multiple new opportunities for skilled technical traders. As the old saying goes, “follow the money”. At this point, if our research team is correct about these price trend changes, following the money may mean opening our eyes to new investment opportunities across the Pacific and Atlantic – as well as very near to the US.
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Thursday, October 17, 2019
Stock Market Future Projected Cycles / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I mentioned this already so just ignore if you are not interested, but just a reminder that you registered to get my weekly free analysis, you have likely read my articles or watched the analysis videos which we have been nailing nearly every market move this year, but for some reason, you stopped?
Why did you stop? This is IT! This is the ONE THING…that SINGLE trading and investment newsletter that’s going to turn into the greatest decision you’ve ever made.
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Thursday, October 17, 2019
Signs Still Point To Lower Levels In Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
Originally published on Sat Oct 12 for our ElliottWaveTrader members: While we have been tracking the metals market for the next rally set-up, we have seen some signs that the market may attempt to begin that rally sooner rather than later. However, I have to be honest in noting that I am seeing more signs that lower levels may still be struck before we are ready for that rally.
So, as I have been saying for the last few weeks, I am going to still treat the market as likely needing more of a corrective downside structure before we begin the next rally phase – until the market is able to prove otherwise.
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Thursday, October 17, 2019
Weekly SPX & Gold Price Cycle Report / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Today I want to talk to you about the SP500 because it’s on the verge of making a very significant move. We could experience a 15% rally or a 15% decline and it could be just around the corner.
Let me recap on both the short-term top this month, and then a look at the bigger picture of what happened last October through December and if we are going to see that happen again. There is the possibility we get a massive rally if the market breaks to new highs. The market is loaded and ready for action. Whichever way it breaks will have a strong impact on precious metals and bonds. Make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.
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Thursday, October 17, 2019
What Makes United Markets Capital Different From Other Online Brokers? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Travis_Bard
In recent times, there seems to be a strategic shift from the small shady market environment to a more controlled and fully developed ecosystem. One company that is doing so well, especially with the continuous growth in the independent broker market generally is United Markets Capital. United Markets Capital is a fast-growing online broker that has been under the radar for some time now. People seem to want to find out what makes the company different from other online brokers out there. David Goldberg, the co-CEO of the company, answers this question in details in a recent interview he granted.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Long-term Trend Analysis
The past 2 years have seen repeated failures to decisively breakout to new highs resolving in significant corrections. Last year's failure resolved in a major downtrend from 27k to 21.7k. Are we in for a similar fate this year?
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Wednesday, October 16, 2019
This Is Not a Money Printing Press / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Peter_Schiff
Rene Magritte's 1929 painting "The Treachery of Images," depicts a tobacco pipe with a caption that reads "Ceci n'est pas une pipe," (French for "This is not a pipe"). Everyone who has taken a course in modern art knows that Magritte's exercise in contradiction was meant to draw a distinction between a real thing and a representation of that thing. Perhaps we should send Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell a beret and an easel as he is attempting a similarly surrealistic take on monetary policy.
Early last week, the Chairman announced a new, as yet unnamed, Fed program through which the bank will now buy regular amounts of short-term U.S. government debt. Seeking to counter the rumblings that a new form of quantitative easing would be seen as an admission that the economy may be in trouble, Chairman Powell asserted during the annual meeting of NABE on October 8, "This is not QE. In no sense is this QE". In other words, "Ceci n'est pas QE."
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