Wednesday, June 05, 2019

US Inflation and House Prices Trend Forecast / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Official US CPI inflation remains marginally below the Fed's 2% target at 1.9%. Generally where house prices are concerned the higher the inflation rate the better as long as the economy is growing. Nothing much screams out from this chart other than at 2% inflation on balance is supportive of house prices.

Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Gold Monetary Base Ratio Show Closer To A Significant Monetary Event / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

Previously, I have shown how we could be close to major financial/monetary crisis. The following chart that shows the ratio of gold to the monetary base was used:

Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Recession Probabilities Continue to Increase: What’s Next for Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market rallied above its 200 day moving average today along with Fed-related news. Today’s headlines:

1. The New York Fed’s Recession Probability Model continues to increase
2. Today’s spike saw relatively low volume
3. Stocks spiked, but VIX didn’t fall significantly today
4. 30 year – 2 year Treasury yield is steepening
5. PMI and the S&P are both falling
6. Zahorchak Method isn’t falling

Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Bond Market Shows Us The Power Of The Dark Side / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

First, I want to begin this article by thanking all those who read my articles for the amazing outpouring of support and prayers for my wife who is recovering from a freak accident. So, with her sleeping right now, I thought I would pen another article to at least keep myself somewhat busy.

Over the years, I have published many price trend change expectations which have hit quite well. Some examples include the top to gold in 2011 at 1915 (with gold topping at 1921), the bottom in the dollar in 2011 (with an expectation of a multi-year rally to within pennies of our target struck six years later), many major turning points in the S&P500, and many other calls throughout the last 8 years I have been publishing my market calls.

Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Enjoy The Stock Market Bounce… In Two Weeks Things Get Nasty / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Stocks bounced yesterday because:

1)    They were oversold.

2)    The markets were at critical support and were due for a bounce (blue line).

3)    Fed officials offered to cut rates if needed to “sustain the expansion.”

4)    Funds were forced to cover their shorts as stocks caught a bid.

Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Warning… Sub-Prime 2.0 Is About to Blow Up / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2019

By: Graham_Summers

For those how pay attention, the Fed has already broadcast what the next crisis will be…

Corporate bonds…

When the Fed cut interest rates to zero in 2008… and held them there for even years straight… it gave the “green light” to corporations to go on massive borrowing spree.

After all… if you’re the CEO of a company… and taking on debt suddenly costs NOTHING… why wouldn’t you start borrowing?

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

US Yield Curve Inverted Again. Will Gold Shine Now? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The U.S. yield curve has inverted again, and it has done so to the widest level since 2007. How much of a reason to worry is that actually? A sky-is-falling moment lurking ahead? If so, what chance of saving us does gold have?

Another Yield Curve Inversion Occurs

It’s really getting more serious. Another yield curve inversion… And a much deeper one – that’s frightening!

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Stock Market Second Half of 2019 – Expect The Unexpected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We believe the current price rotation is just the beginning of something much bigger.  Over the past 16+ months, we’ve been calling these tops and bottoms many months in advance.  In February/March 2018, we called the bottom and initiated a call that the US stock market would rally to establish new all-time highs.  Very few believed us at that time, but the markets did exactly what we predicted.  In September 2018, we called for the markets to experience weakness, pause after a quick downturn, then establish an “ultimate bottom” near November 2018 before rallying back to near all-time highs again.  At that time, everyone was betting the new market crash had taken over Wall Street and we were really the only ones suggesting the US stock market would rally back from the December 2018 lows.  Guess what happened?  The markets did exactly what we predicted and went on to hit new highs months later.

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Gap Between Average two and five-year Fixed Rate Mortgages at 7 year low / Housing-Market / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

Latest analysis by Moneyfacts.co.uk shows that the difference between the average two-year and five-year fixed mortgage rate has narrowed by 0.06% from 0.42% to 0.36% since the beginning of the year, seeing it stand at the lowest difference recorded in seven years as a result. The average two-year fixed rate has fallen by 0.03% from 2.52% in January 2019 to 2.49% this month, while the average five-year fixed rate decreased by 0.09% from 2.94% to 2.85% over the same period.

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Fibonacci Support May Signal Bounce in Oil & Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We want to take a moment to point out that a Fibonacci 100% price move setup may prompt an upside price swing over the next few days and weeks.  Many traders fail to identify this setup and get caught up in the current price trend.  This happens because we lose focus on the fact that price always moves in segments or legs – from one peak or trough to another peak or trough.  The process of creating these segments or legs is usually structured in these types of Fibonacci price increment, and Fib targets I have personally found to be the most accurate for spotting profit taking and turning points.

We provide two very clear examples of this type of setup and how it has worked in the past.  We urge all traders to understand there are many examples of larger Fibonacci price expansion legs throughout history.  These examples of the 100% Fibonacci price leg are unique instances of price movement and, after confirmation of a base/reversal, can become very valid trading signals.

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Recession Is a Psychological Thing: It Will Happen When We Say It Happens / Economics / Recession 2020

By: Jared_Dillian

We haven’t had a recession in a while in the United States.

The last one was pretty bad, so it stands to reason we might want to avoid a repeat of that experience.

President Trump is working very hard to ensure that we do not have a recession (at least until the 2020 election). The Fed no longer seems to believe that inflation is the greater risk. We are basically running the economy at full speed all the time.

It is hard to have a recession when monetary and fiscal policy have buried the needle.

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Is Trump Reversing Course On Iran? / Politics / Iran

By: OilPrice_Com

The Trump administration is attempting to dial down the tension with Iran, lowering the risk of military conflict and pushing for diplomatic negotiations.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the U.S. was ready to negotiate with Iran with “no preconditions,” a shift in strategy after laying out a list of 12 hardline demands last year, a list that seemed to be a set of preconditions. Meanwhile, last week, President Trump stated that he was not seeking regime change in Iran, contradicting his national security adviser, John Bolton, who has repeatedly advocated for toppling the regime in Tehran.

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Democrats Double Down on Trump Show Trial / Politics / US Politics

By: BATR

A majority of the public by now is sick of the witch hunt. Just imagine the fatigue and revolting sentiments that ordinary Americans have for the elitists and brainwashed libtards that want to impeach President Trump. Interminable Congressional hearings with no reasonable chance for Senate removal from office are in itself an abuse of legislative provocative. The William Jefferson Clinton impeachment demonstrated that a Republican Senate had a prearranged agreement to acquit before the trial began. If two-thirds of Senators could be mustered to convict, the RINO Republicans would need to demonstrate they are closet NeoCons.  

The show trial that the establishment 'Never Trumpers' would more likely be one of continued trashing by committees and endless media presstitute reporting. The Show Trials in the USSR had the purpose of protecting Stalin. The Marxist Democrats are the Amerika version of Bolshevism. Their aim is to maintain the Deep State in power. Maintaining the totalitarian culture of collectivism by systematically destroying our Constitutional Republic has reached a point of no return.

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Could the Trade War Help Ignite the Coming Recession? / Economics / Recession 2020

By: Robert_Ross

Dear Reader,

Another of the many moving parts in the economy right now is the escalating trade war between America and China.

The costs are starting to be felt. In fact, the latest tariffs should cost the average American household $831 this year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

New U.S. Sanctions Spark Blowback Against Federal Reserve Note Dollar System / Currencies / US Dollar

By: MoneyMetals

U.S. leaders are demanding the rest of the world recognize economic sanctions and stop buying Iranian oil. The U.K., Germany, France, Russia, China, and India are among the nations who don’t fully support the sanctions and would rather not pay higher prices for oil elsewhere.

American officials more and more often resort to delivering ultimatums, both to adversaries and allies alike. Nations that do not follow orders stand to lose access to the U.S. financial system and could face trade sanctions of their own. That is a serious threat.

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

US Unemployment and Housing Market Trend Forecast / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A stable strong economy can further be seen in the unemployment statistic of just 3.8% marginal above the low of 3.7% and off of a recent high of 4%. As long as unemployment stays stable at around 4% then this should be supportive of house prices going forward.

Monday, June 03, 2019

NVIDIA (NVDA) - The GPU King - High Risk High Reward AI Stock Investing (9) / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Are you ready for the exponential machine intelligence mega-trend?

In this series of videos I present my Top 10 AI stocks to invest in to profit from the exponential machine intelligence mega-trend. Firstly for a primer do check out my earlier two videos with the first illustrating why everything will start to change exponentially by 2022. And the second video explaining how to invest in machine intellgence stocks in terms of accumulating positions and limiting risk.

My Top 10 AI stocks are ranked in terms of risk vs reward and volatility. So I consider my Top 5 stocks as primary, then the next 3 as secondary and the last 2 as far more risky tertiary stocks. And remember that when investing in the stock market that your capital is at risk. There are NO SURE BETS!

Monday, June 03, 2019

How Foolish We All Are About China And Life / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

While I will let the “real” analysts debate about how we should handle our trade deal regarding China, I am only here to discuss the sentiment around the China deal.

This past week, I have seen many posts like this one:

“We wouldn't be down at these relatively low levels had China settled with Trump. Guaranteed.”

The posters’ logic works like this: The market has been dropping ever since the China deal fell apart. So, it is clear that the cause of the drop is the China deal debacle. And I am quite certain that almost all of you think in this exact same way. I mean it so logical, right?

Monday, June 03, 2019

How China Wins Trade War / Economics / Protectionism

By: Richard_Mills

The trade feud between the US and China has deteriorated into trench warfare, with tariffs used as bayonets to bludgeon the other’s economy into submission. China’s Huawei has been blacklisted and US firms ordered to stop doing business with the telecom giant, further souring the bilateral relationship. For Part 1 of this series read:

US is winning trade war with China...for now

Recent decisions made by the Trump and Xi administrations to either pile on more tariffs or increase the rate on existing ones, mean there is virtually no more tariff leverage either side can exert on the other, to extract the concessions needed for a deal.

The United States earlier this month raised tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%, effective June 1; China retaliated with $60 billion worth of 25% tariffs on American products. The Trump administration is reportedly “very strongly” considering tariffs on the remaining $325 billion of Chinese imports.

Monday, June 03, 2019

Big Developments in America’s 5G Rollout Stock Investors Need to be Aware of / Companies / Mobile Technology

By: Stephen_McBride

My longtime readers know 5G is the most disruptive force of the decade.

In short, 5G will supercharge America’s wireless networks. It will give us internet speeds 1,000x faster than today’s.

This will open up a whole new world of disruption.