Friday, June 21, 2019
Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Super Mario delivered a surprisingly dovish speech. But he was shortly outshined by Super Jerome. Both key central banks have sent new signals to the markets for interpretation. Let’s read the tea leaves and make sense of the initial reaction in the gold market.
Draghi Repeats ‘Whatever it Takes’ In a Mini Version
As we covered one week ago in the Gold News Monitor, the ECB became more dovish on the June monetary policy meeting. The central bank postponed the possible beginning of the interest rate hiking from the end of 2019 to the mid-2020.
Our assessment was that “the European central bankers are getting more worried about the state of the Eurozone economy and may adopt an even more dovish stance in the near future.” It turned out we were right. We did not have to wait too long for a more forceful signal from the ECB. On Tuesday, Mario Draghi delivered a mini ‘whatever it takes’ speech at the annual conference in Sintra, Portugal. He said:
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Friday, June 21, 2019
Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold has finally broken out to the upside.
In Asia trading on Thursday, Gold exploded through the $1360 to $1370 resistance zone and was able to hold the gains throughout the day, closing above $1395/oz.
As we pen this article, Gold has to chance to break $1400/oz by the weekend. The close of the month (and quarter) next week will provide an additional clue as to the sustainability of this strength.
The gold stocks meanwhile have been on an absolute tear. GDX is up 16 of the past 17 trading days and has gained 23% over that period. GDXJ is up 13 of the past 17 sessions and has also gained 23% during that period.
GDX closed right at resistance at $25. It could blow through it and reach a multi-year high at $27 or it could first correct and consolidate around $25.
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Friday, June 21, 2019
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the final article in this Gold analysis series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price into Late September 2019 :
- Current State
- Trend Analysis, MACD, Trend Channels Support / Resistance
- Seasonal Analysis
- US Dollar / Gold
- Gold Price Trend Forecast Conclusion
- Gold Stocks
Friday, June 21, 2019
Gold Bus has left the Station / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: SurfCity
Surf City has several seats on the Bus. Do you?
Summary: Gold closed at $1348 today according to Stockcharts but is now much higher at $1365 as I write this update. My two longer-term weekly charts on GLD show the potential for a massive upside breakout where price could really run hard & fast. My first chart is a 6 Year weekly showing a massive inverse Head & shoulders pattern that is ready to bust out to the upside of the inverse neckline. Remember that the bigger the pattern in Time, the more powerful the Breakout potential. My second chart is a 2 year weekly showing a large “Cup & Handle” pattern, which is another bullish structure where price could really run.
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Friday, June 21, 2019
The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
In March 1980, the University of Washington installed a seismograph system designed to monitor earthquake activity in the Cascades, with a focus on increased seismic activity around Mount St. Helens.
Starting just a few days later, a series of earthquakes, small eruptions, and steam releases took place. Near the end of the month, the peak of the mountain started to open up.
But this was only the beginning. For the next six weeks, small eruptions alternated with intermittent quiet periods. But beneath the surface, liquid magma was forcing its way upward, creating intense pressure.
Friday, June 21, 2019
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We believe the US stock market is nearing upper resistance. We still believe the US stock market will eventually attempt to move about the psychological levels of 3000 for the S&P, 30,000 for the Dow and 340 SPY. This move to new all-time highs will likely result in a ”scouting party” type of price pattern where price attempts to identify new resistance, slightly above the psychological levels, then reverses back below these levels to retest support.
Our continued belief that a large pennant/flag formation is unfolding has not changed. As technical analysts, we need to wait for the new price peak form before we can identify where the upper channel of the pennant/flag formation is trending. We would urge traders to be conscious that any outside move in the stock markets as a very limited upside potential from current levels. The SPY is trading at 293 and we believe upper resistance will be found slightly above 300. Thus, we really have about a $7 or $8 move to the upside from current levels – only about 3% to 4% more room to the upside.
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Thursday, June 20, 2019
US Dollar vs Gold Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is my fourth video in this series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold Price into September 2019.
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Thursday, June 20, 2019
Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The medium-term chart shows early signs of Silver changing trend by attempting to end it's multi-year downtrend by making a higher high of $16.20 and higher low of $14,27. A break above $16.20 would lift Silver into a new trading range of $18 and $16.20. Which if it happens will mean we won't revisit the $14.00 area for some time. So with Silver currently trading at $14.74 then time may be running out to accumulate Silver at a sub $15 price.
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Thursday, June 20, 2019
Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
It’s not a chart of nominal HUI with upside technical targets. We’ll do that in NFTRH this weekend, along with the usual individual miners. Rather, it’s a companion to other charts we’ve been reviewing over the last several months showing the under valuation of the gold stock sector relative to gold’s performance vs. cyclical assets/markets. For example, gold has risen strongly vs. the CRB index and that is a sector fundamental under valuation.
Thursday, June 20, 2019
A Key Gold Bull Market Signal / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Hubert_Moolman
The gold market is looking a lot like it did early in the millennium, at the start of the bull market. It is setting up for a gold bull market that is likely to be way more intense than the previous one, due to the structural weaknesses incurred by the monetary system since then.
Debt levels, for example, have grown significantly since the early 2000s. US Goverment debts (Federal debt) as a percentage of GDP has grown from 55% in 2000 to 105% today.
There will soon be significant market movements to compensate for the unsustainable debt levels. If your debt levels are becoming too high, at some point your credit rating will be affected to the extent that lenders will require higher interest rates and/or they will refuse to provide you any credit. This is true whether you are an individual or a nation state.
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Thursday, June 20, 2019
The Longer the US Sino-Tariff Wars Go On, the Harder It Will Be to Undo the Damage / Economics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
Compared to pre-2008 crisis levels, world economic growth has plummeted by half and is at risk of a long-term, hard-to-reverse stagnation. Returning to global integration and multilateral reconciliation could dramatically change the scenarioSince spring 2017, the US-led tariff wars have effectively undermined the global recovery. In the past years, global economy has navigated across several scenarios. Now it is approaching the edge.
I have been following four generic scenarios on the prospects of global economic growth since the U.S. 2016 election. The first two scenarios represent variants of “recoupling." In these cases, global integration prevails, despite tensions. In the next two scenarios, global integration will fail, either in part and regionally or fully and globally.
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Thursday, June 20, 2019
Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun / Personal_Finance / Gardening
By: Anika_Walayat
Here 3 year old Eliza shows how kids can have lots of money saving summer fun by planting sunflower seeds and then watch as they germinate and grow as the rate of growth of giant sunflowers is truly spectacular! Something that the kids will enjoy!
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Thursday, June 20, 2019
Investing in APPLE (AAPL) to Profit From AI Machine Learning Stocks / Companies / Apple
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Where to invest to profit from the exponential machine intelligence mega-trend. I have ranked these stocks in in terms of risk vs reward and volatility. Do remember that when investing in the stock market that your capital is at risk. There are NO SURE BETS!
If you've not already done so then watch my following video from November 2016 which illustrates why everything will start to change exponentially by 2021.
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Thursday, June 20, 2019
Small Cap Stocks May Lead A Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We believe a unique Pennant/Flag formation is setting up in the US stock markets. We believe the Small Cap sector may provide a better technical reference to the price breakout we are expecting in late August or early September than the mid or large-cap sectors. The charts tell a very interesting story when comparing the different sectors to the SPY.
As most of you are well aware, the very deep selloff between October and December 2018 prompted a low price pivot point that most technical analysts are using as a reference to support. What we find interesting is that these Small Caps have really failed to mount any type of price recovery. We believe this is because of the continued capital shift where foreign investors and institutional investors are piling into mid-cap and large-cap equities chasing dividends and safety. The small-cap index chart may provide the best technical reference for the pennant formation and eventual breakout move.
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Thursday, June 20, 2019
Interest Rates Square Minus Zero / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Raul_I_Meijer
I intentionally start writing this mere minutes away from Fed chair Jay Powell’s latest comments. Intentionally, because the importance ascribed to those comments only means we have gotten so far removed from what capitalism and free markets are supposed to be about, that it’s pathetic. The comments mean something for rich socialists, but nothing for the man in the street. Or, rather, they mean that the man in the street will get screwed worse for longer.
And it’s not just the Fed, all central banks have it and do it. They play around with rates and definitions and semantics until the cows can never come home again. And they have such levels of control over their respective societies and economies that the mere use of the word “markets” should result in loud and unending ridicule. There are no markets, because there is no price discovery, the Fed and ECB and BOJ got it all covered. Any downside risks, that is.
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Thursday, June 20, 2019
Advice for Financing a Luxury Vehicle / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans
By: Kavinesh_A
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Thursday, June 20, 2019
Stock Market Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Well, that’s that.
The markets surged on the Fed announcement of NO rate cuts because the market now believes the Fed is GUARANTEED to make a MASSIVE cut in July.
The S&P 500 (blue line in the chart below) hit our upside target for this rally, catching up the breadth (black line in the chart below). We might finish the week around here, but going forward anyone going long is effectively “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.”
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Wednesday, June 19, 2019
US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US dollar rallied nearly half a percent off recent support near $96.50. This upside price move confirms the capital shift we have been talking about. Foreign capital is pouring into US markets and US dollar as strength in the US economy continues to dominate.
This new upside move in the US dollar has established a new lower price channel that should continue to act as price support going forward. Fibonacci price structure dictates that a higher low and a higher high price rotation may follow. We would expect some resistance just below the $98 level and if the Fed lowers the rate the dollar will likely pullback and consolidate for a few weeks to digest the news, but investors will still see the USD as the strong currency and keep buying it longer term.
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Wednesday, June 19, 2019
Most Income Investors Are Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: Jared_Dillian
Income investing is hard.
Let’s say you buy 20 bonds. Each of them yields 5%. Nineteen out of 20 mature at par and you get your money back, with interest.
One of them defaults. You are back where you started!
It is said that income investing is a negative art. Your goal isn’t to pick the winners—it’s to avoid the losers. You want to pick winners, invest in stocks. Have you seen a chart of Beyond Meat? Bonds generally don’t do that.
It is also said that income investing is like picking up nickels in front of a steamroller. You’re earning a 4–5% coupon, and you could get whacked pretty much any day, just like what happened at Toys “R” Us. It is a bit like selling puts.
Wednesday, June 19, 2019
We’re All Socialists Now / Politics / US Politics
By: Antonius_Aquinas
Despite being probably robbed of the Democratic Party’s nomination by the Clinton political machine, the success of the Bernie Sanders’ 2016 campaign with his advocacy of “democratic socialism” was an ominous sign of things to come and, in some sense, more telling of the political climate than Donald Trump’s improbable victory in November, 2016. The millions of votes garnered by Sanders in the Democratic primaries has emboldened other socialists to seek political office while socialist ideas are openly spoken of with little fear of political recriminations.
Sanders has doubled down on his advocacy of democratic socialism in a recent speech at George Washington University, calling for the completion of Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s New Deal of the 1930s:
Today I am proposing we complete the unfinished work of Franklin Roosevelt and the Democratic Party by putting forth a 21st century economic bill of rights.*
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