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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

InvestorEducation

Monday, September 19, 2022

STOCKS BEAR MAKRETS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE PAINFUL! / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The bottom line is that bear markets are supposed to be PAINFUL! And I can tell many investors feel that PAIN from the comments as they post the latest price of say Intel or AMD or TSMC or any other stock trading lower as if I have a magic button to press to make the stock go higher. So if you are feeling PAIN then go read my earlier recent articles on the psychology of investing in bear markets because bear markets are PAINFUL where the degree of pain experienced depends on what time frame on is focused upon.

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Currencies

Monday, September 19, 2022

How Much Longer Can the US Dollar Trade Last? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Richard_Mills

This year has seen a correction in the gold price, commensurate with rising interest rates, and the spectre of more to come. The precious metal has also been hammered by a strong US dollar, which is negatively correlated to the gold price.

Spot gold has fallen from about $1,800 an ounce at the start of the year, to $1,675 currently, a drop of 7.4%. On Thursday, Sept. 15, gold plunged to its lower level since April, 2020, on expectations of a 0.75% interest rate increase next week by the Federal Reserve.

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Commodities

Monday, September 19, 2022

Gold Bleeding, Seasonal Pattern / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has sure been a four-letter word lately, suffering one of its worst bull summers.  The primary culprit was heavy gold-futures selling on a parabolic US-dollar surge fueled by extreme Fed hawkishness.  But the resulting gold technical damage really disheartened investors, spawning additional relentless selling from them.  This investment bleeding has certainly exacerbated gold’s downside, but its days are numbered.

With inflation raging in its biggest super-spike since the 1970s, gold should be soaring today.  Instead it has been bludgeoned 14.3% lower between mid-April to late July, defying long precedent.  And at the mid-week data cutoff for this essay, gold had again been pummeled right back to those deep summer lows.  Technically gold looks pretty broken, which has whipped up bearish sentiment to suffocating extremes.

Gold was trading near $1,977 in mid-April just before the US Dollar Index started rocketing vertically.  In the past five months starting then, US headline CPI inflation has run red-hot blasting up 8.3%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 8.5%, and 8.3% year-over-year!  That high-water June print was the worst witnessed since way back in November 1981, a 40.6-year high!  It’s hard to imagine a more-irrational backdrop for a major gold selloff.

Gold skyrocketed during the last similar inflation super-spikes in the 1970s.  In the first the CPI blasted from +2.7% YoY to +12.3% over 30 months into December 1974.  Gold’s monthly-average prices from trough to peak CPI months launched 196.6% higher!  During the second the CPI exploded from +4.9% YoY to +14.8% in 40 months climaxing in March 1980.  Gold’s monthly-average prices were a moonshot, up 322.4%!

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Politics

Sunday, September 18, 2022

Jumping the Queue to See the Queen Lying in State at Westminister Like at Alton Towers / Politics / Social Issues

By: N_Walayat

The Queen is lying in state, and her subjects have been queuing for as long as 24 hours to give their final respects to Britians longest reigning monarch.

Britian is said to be a nation of quers. Whilst that may be true for most, the younger iphone generation tend to be a nation of queue jumpers, as the Queens queue brings back memeories of the euques at Alton Tower at the height of the pandemic during 20201, when the vaccines were still yet to be jabbed into most peoples arms.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 16, 2022

Dow Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Despite being skeptical of Elliott wave theory and not abiding by any of it's tenants, i.e. I number the counts as I see them regardless of following the 'rules'. Nevertheless Elliott wave proved a useful tool during 2021 in the count down to the end of the Stocks bull market and the start of this bear market as the charts illustrate that there are times when EW BS actually works!

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Commodities

Friday, September 16, 2022

Inflation Is Hotter Than Expected, Gold Price Colder Than Hoped / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The annual CPI decelerated in August but came in higher than expected. Bets on a more hawkish Fed increased, while in the case of gold, they decreased.

Inflation stayed hot in August. Unbelievable! At least for the majority of pundits who expected softer inflation. However, I’m not surprised, as I’ve repeated many times that “inflation is likely to stay elevated for some time.” But let’s stop bragging – and start digging into the recent CPI report.

The CPI increased 0.1% in August after being flat in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It doesn’t seem to be a huge increase, but let’s note that it occurred despite a 10.6-percent decline in the gasoline index. Without plunging gas prices, inflation would be much higher because of the broad-based monthly item increase.
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InvestorEducation

Friday, September 16, 2022

Learn Elliott Wave Theory - FREE 1 Hour Course / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory

By: EWI

Hi,

Our friends at Elliott Wave International are offering a complimentary course on how to 1) spot an Elliott wave pattern on a price chart, and 2) develop a solid trading plan to take advantage of it.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 15, 2022

Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Trend Forecast Sept to Dec 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Despite being skeptical of Elliott wave theory and not abiding by any of it's tenants, i.e. I number the counts as I see them regardless of following the 'rules'. Nevertheless Elliott wave proved a useful tool during 2021 in the count down to the end of the Stocks bull market and the start of this bear market as the charts illustrate that there are times when EW BS actually works!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, September 15, 2022

Bearish Signals Remain for Brent and WTI Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

After the bearish progress, oil prices slipped slightly as worries about the global growth outlook overtook fears about the supply shortage.

Macroeconomics

On the macroeconomic view, the greenback found support on its 50-Day Moving Average (DMA) at the beginning of the week before resuming its rally upward and approaching its monthly highs of $110-110.50. Will the quarterly R3 pivot ($115) be reached anytime soon, or will the $110.50 level be left as its two-decade high?

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Politics

Thursday, September 15, 2022

New Wolrd Order and CRISIS / Politics / New World Order

By: Raymond_Matison

It was back in 2006 that the foreign ministries of Brazil, Russia, India, and China first met to consider improved economic ties.  Their dissatisfaction with the inability to gain increased representation at the IMF, reflecting their increasing economic contribution to the world economy, their concern - even at that time - for a stable new reserve currency, and inability to otherwise reform the IMF, led them to form what became known as the BRIC organization.  With the invitation to South America to join their alliance, they became known as the BRICS nations.

In 2015, this author posted an article entitled BRICS? No, CRISIS
http://www/marketoracle.co.uk/Article53009.html  which reflected on the likelihood that many other nations within South America, given an opportunity to join an alternative alliance, would revolt from their northern neighbor-controlled environment and join BRICS.  Also, at the same time Iran’s news agency had announced that the country would seek to become a participant in the BRICS New Development Bank.  This event, and some forward projection inspired the renaming of this alliance to CRISIS, by reordering the nations in this alliance by size and import as China, Russia, South America, Iran, and South Africa, thus creating a new acronym, CRISIS.  The article cited above is still timely today, and describes the goals and hopes of a far larger global alliance, which escapes the dollar hegemony and its consequences for countries other than the old colonial powers of England, America, and Europe.      

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Currencies

Thursday, September 15, 2022

Is it too late to play Ethereum’s upcoming Merge? / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Stephen_McBride

Ethereum’s big merge is happening on September 14…

RiskHedge Chief Analyst Stephen McBride says it’s the most important crypto event since Ethereum’s debut seven years ago.

The Merge is set to forever transform Ethereum, the second-biggest crypto.

It’ll make it more energy efficient and attractive for big-money investors to own.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 09, 2022

Stocks Bear Market Rally End Game / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Mega earnings week saw the stock market soar on reporting euphoria where apparently the worse the earnings the stronger the rally in stocks such as Amazon due to the twin forces of investors piling into breakouts AND the market running short stops, which surely implies that the bear market could be OVER! After all the stock market discounts the future and so is looking beyond current BAD earnings and economic data to the blue sky's of future quarters, that coupled with US bonds rallying as the market tempered future interest rate expectations down from a peak of 4% for Mid 2023 to currently 3.25% all contributing towards the S&P closing higher at 4130.

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Commodities

Friday, September 09, 2022

Futures Still Dogging Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold continues to languish near major lows after a rough summer, deeply out of favor with traders.  Oddly this leading alternative investment seems oblivious to the first inflation super-spike since the 1970s.  That should be driving big gold demand, fueling a major upleg.  But that classic inflationary response has been temporarily delayed by heavy-to-extreme gold-futures selling.  When that reverses to buying, gold will soar.

As everyone running a household or business knows, inflation is raging out of control.  Not even lowballed government statistics can hide it.  The monthly US Consumer Price Index has averaged blistering 8.3% year-over-year gains so far in 2022!  That’s 4.6x 2019’s +1.8%-YoY monthly average, the last normal year before the pandemic-lockdown stock panic and its extensive aftermath.  This June, the CPI soared 9.1% YoY.

That proved its hottest print since way back in November 1981, a staggering 40.6-year high!  That’s despite today’s CPI being way watered-down compared to the 1970s one, extensively understating real inflation.  Americans sure wish prices were only climbing 9%ish annually, but the grim reality out there is at least double to triple that.  With such extreme inflation, gold should be soaring on huge investment demand.

Gold skyrocketed during the last similar inflation super-spikes in the 1970s.  In the first the CPI blasted from +2.7% YoY to +12.3% over 30 months into December 1974.  Gold’s monthly-average prices from trough to peak CPI months launched 196.6% higher!  During the second the CPI exploded from +4.9% YoY to +14.8% in 40 months climaxing in March 1980.  Gold’s monthly-average prices were a moonshot, up 322.4%!

If today’s CPI still used its far-more-honest 1970s methodology, headline inflation would be about double reported levels.  Gold’s stunning disconnect from today’s raging inflation is troubling, leaving the great majority of traders forgetting about that 1970s precedent.  After suffering one of its worst summers in modern bull-market years, gold has largely been left-for-dead.  Instead of flocking back, investors are fleeing.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 09, 2022

Here's a Potential Signal for What May Be Next for U.S. Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI

This action by investors resulted in "the highest total since 2014, and probably ever"

Frost & Prechter's Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, first published nearly 45 years ago and said:

"Eight years of a raging bear market have taught today's investor to be cautious, conservative and cynical. Defensiveness is not in evidence at tops."

Considering this description of investors' mindset in the late '70s and early '80s, many market observers were not contemplating the start of a big bull market.

Yet, Elliott Wave Principle did forecast a major uptrend and that's what happened.

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Personal_Finance

Friday, September 09, 2022

How to Wash Your Car Hosepipe Ban with a Bucket and Sponge, Rinse and Polish, Save Water / Personal_Finance / Motoring

By: HGR

A hosepipe ban has kicked in across many regions of the UK, Here's how to wash your car with a just a bucket and sponge, including rinsing and polish, no fancy water butt attachments, just using a simple bucket and sponge! So get saving water, some excercise and have a clean sparking car on your driveway! And if you are good enough maybe you can earn some extra money by washing your neighbours cars as well!

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 09, 2022

Answering Questions About Private Equity with Mark Hauser / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022

By: Sumeet_Manhas

According to McKinsey’s Private Markets Annual Review released in March of this year, private equity is continuing to experience growth. The report found that private market assets under management (AUM) has grown 170 percent over the past ten years, increasing by $4 trillion and today has reached an all-time high of $6.3 trillion. There are twice as many private equity firms out there than there were a decade ago, and the pooled investment rate of return (IRR) of 27 percent in 2021 saw private equity continue to be the highest-performing private markets asset class.

Mark Hauser, co-managing partner of Hauser Private Equity, highlights below what you need to know about private equity. Since its inception in 2008, Hauser Private Equity’s five funds have invested over $350 million in capital in privately-owned businesses nationally. With over three decades of investing and operating company experience, Hauser has facilitated the completion of over 500 investments and successfully realized over 150 of them.

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Politics

Friday, September 09, 2022

The Day Queen Elizabeth II DIED at Balmoral Castle, Scotland - LIve BBC / Politics / UK Politics

By: N_Walayat

It's the 8th of September and since just after mid-day non stop BBC coverage was of that the doctors had been making the Queen comfortable, this was not just start stop coverage but continuous broadcast which implied that the Queen was on or death bed and probably had already died and the announcement was pending everyone getting to Balmoral with the last person to arrive being estranged Prince Harry. Here is the BBC coverage live in the leadup to the announcement of the death of the Queen of the United Kingdom at Balmoral Castle, Scotland.

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InvestorEducation

Thursday, September 08, 2022

What Is Options Trading And How To Know If It Is Good For You / InvestorEducation / Options & Warrants

By: Steve_Barker

Options trading is the buying and selling of assets that give the buyer the right to specify both the price and the time of purchase of a particular security. With options trading, you have complete control over your financial market decisions.

After purchasing an option, you are free to sell it at any time or day of your choosing. However, there is no penalty for not selling an option you have purchased. The two main categories of options are call and put options.

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Politics

Thursday, September 08, 2022

Russia Declares Energy WAR on Europe! GazProm Threatens to Cut Gas Supplies! / Politics / Energy Crisis

By: N_Walayat

Straight out of a Bond Movie, the evil dictator threatens to FREEZE europe into submission, only that this is not a movie it is reality in 2022. Gazprom threatens to cut supply of Gas to Europe as part of the defacto energy war on europe. This is for the horses mouth - Gazprom!

The energy crisis is only beginning! We are in the calm before the REAL storm!

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Stock-Markets

Monday, September 05, 2022

Stock Market Reality Check / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Mega earnings week saw the stock market soar on reporting euphoria where apparently the worse the earnings the stronger the rally in stocks such as Amazon due to the twin forces of investors piling into breakouts AND the market running short stops, which surely implies that the bear market could be OVER! After all the stock market discounts the future and so is looking beyond current BAD earnings and economic data to the blue sky's of future quarters, that coupled with US bonds rallying as the market tempered future interest rate expectations down from a peak of 4% for Mid 2023 to currently 3.25% all contributing towards the S&P closing higher at 4130.

Whilst the market was in the grips of BAD earnings mania I took the opportunity to trim my holdings which is another word for light selling, where my selling only went deep for Amazon which took my percent of portfolio down from 1.6% to 1.3% though after taking account of the price jump it's back up to 1.5% of portfolio which means I will probably sell more Amazon next week/ Whilst percent exposure is irrelevant right now as I am seeking to further reduce my max exposure limit. So more selling in the pipeline for Amazon and to a lesser extent others as the stock market so far has not done anything I have not been expecting it to do with the S&P having fulfilled my minimum target of 4080 and now has entered the TREACLE resistance zone of 4080 to 4180 as my forecast graph of some months illustrates.

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