Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, March 14, 2011
Japanese Stock Market Trend Forecast Post EarthQuake / Stock-Markets / Japanese Stock Market
The Japanese people are suffering after a massive earthquake, our best wishes go out to them. Many financial market analyst are posting what happened to Japanese stocks (N225) post the 1995 Kobe earthquake. What can we expect this time, we fear much of the same.
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Monday, March 14, 2011
Stock Market Correction May Be Ending / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Very Long-term trend - The continuing strength in the indices is causing me to question whether we are in a secular bear market or two consecutive cyclical bull/bear cycles. In any case, the very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014-15.
Long-term trend - In March 2009, the SPX began an upward move in the form of a bull market. Cycles point to a continuation of this trend for several more months.
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Sunday, March 13, 2011
Do or Die Week for Stocks and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
The past couple weeks have been choppy in the equities market. While the strong intraday moves are great for day traders, it is extremely difficult for swing/position traders who normally hold positions for 3-60 days in length, which is my focus with this newsletter. That being said, we are reaching a do or die point for the equities market and next week there should be a strong move out of this trading range.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Stock Market Correction Confirmed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The week started with the market remaining in its SPX 1303 to 1332 trading range. During the latter part of the week the lower end of the trading range broke down, confirming an OEW downtrend, and the market traded down to SPX 1292 on friday before recovering during the day. Economic reports remained mostly good with positives beating out negatives 7 : 4. On the positive side, consumer credit continued to expand while wholesale/business inventories, retail sales, excess reserves, the monetary base and the WLEI all improved. On the negative side, the trade/budget deficits expanded, weekly jobless claims increased and consumer sentiment declined.
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Saturday, March 12, 2011
What the VIX is Saying for the Stock Market... / Stock-Markets / Volatility
The VIX is regarded as the Fear Index by many, so you would expect it to be screaming "Fear" after yesterday's market drop, the Libyan and Saudi troubles, and the huge earthquake in Japan.
It isn't ... instead it is showing that the market is acting like it is relatively undaunted by all the above concerns.
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Saturday, March 12, 2011
Stock Market Trends Impacted by Social Moods / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
We can now add the recent uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East to the category of life imitating art -- specifically, music lyrics. Those who lived through the 1980s might be forgiven for hearing an unbidden snatch of music run through their heads as they watched first Hosni Mubarak and now Moammar Gadhafi try to hold onto power -- "Should I Stay or Should I Go" by The Clash. In Libya, where Gadhafi has used air strikes and ground forces against the rebels, The Clash's other huge hit from 1981, "Rock the Casbah," describes the current situation so well it's almost eerie:
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Saturday, March 12, 2011
SPX has a Classic Reversal Pattern / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Hundreds killed in tsunami after 8.9 Japan quake(AP) A ferocious tsunami spawned by one of the largest earthquakes ever recorded slammed Japan's eastern coast Friday, killing hundreds of people as it swept away boats, cars and homes while widespread fires burned out of control.
Hours later, the tsunami hit Hawaii and warnings blanketed the Pacific, as far away as South America, Canada, Alaska and the entire U.S. West Coast.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Markets Rocked By Japan Megaquake, Gold Mixed as Yen Surges / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
The massive earthquake and tsunami that has rocked Japan is being digested by markets and the economic ramifications and uncertainty is leading to risk aversion.
The massive earthquake measured 8.9 on the Richter scale and is the largest earthquake since 1896 and the 6th largest earthquake ever measured. It has triggered alarm that tsunamis may hit coastlines throughout the Pacific including on the U.S. western seaboard. A state of emergency has been declared at one of Japan’s nuclear stations due to a fire and the process for cooling the nuclear reactor is 'not going as planned'.
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Friday, March 11, 2011
Stock Market Correction Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
In my analysis of March 2nd I suggested the stock market correction should last around 4 weeks (based on cycles and previous corrections) and sufficiently reset overbought or extreme indicators in order for the cyclical bull to continue. Today the correction is 3 weeks old, and we have seen just over 50 points wiped off the S&P500. So is it shortly a buy again?
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Friday, March 11, 2011
Back to the Well? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
There is a rather popular cliché that those who don’t know their history are doomed to repeat it. I tend to like the variation, that the only thing we have learned from history is that we have learned nothing from it. Sounds like a clever oxymoron, but given the state of affairs in the world today, it is more than apropos. It would seem that once again, we are defying logic and trying to go back to 2005 when it was all roses, honey, easy mortgages, and big trade deficits. Have we really not learned a thing?
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Friday, March 11, 2011
Gold, Stocks and Commodites: Save, Invest, Speculate, Trade or Gamble? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Doug Casey, The Casey Report writes: For some time I've been saying that the economy is in the “eye of the storm” and that when it emerged, the weather would be far rougher than in 2008. The trillions of currency units created since the Greater Depression began in 2007 have papered over the situation, but only temporarily.
In some ways, the immediate and direct effects of this money creation appear beneficial. For instance, by averting a sharp and complete collapse of financial markets and the banking system – or by allowing a return to some approximation of normalcy in the daily lives of most people.
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Friday, March 11, 2011
S&P 500 Remains Overly Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The recent sell-off of the S&P 500 has brought many investors to question the sustainability of the bull market. Spiking oil prices and the outlook for even high energy costs as demand increases, has resurfaced concerns of another major market decline. However, this outlook is very unlikely given the underlying strength of the index.
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Thursday, March 10, 2011
The SPX Stocks Index Dances Between Danger and Excitement / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Many readers might remember that exactly two years ago the S&P 500 tagged the infamous 666 price level before putting on a monster 2 year rally that saw it surge over 100% to the February 2011 highs. Investors today are staring at a rising wall of risk while corporate credit spreads remain bullish, corporations have been able to expand margins and produce increasing profits, and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has declared that there are no inflationary concerns. Quite frankly I am going to leave Ben Bernanke alone simply because so many other people will do a better job of declaring him incompetent and the creator of massive bubbles in risk assets, but I digress.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Stock Market Flash Crash Risk Assets, Bears Are Gaining Traction / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Traders, money managers, and individual investors have numerous concerns relative to the ‘risk-on’ or inflation trade:
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Thursday, March 10, 2011
Industrial Stocks Will Drive the Stock Market Higher, Regardless of High Oil Prices / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Jon D. Markman writes: Some investors are worried that high oil prices will drag down the U.S. recovery - and the stock market rally it's spawned.
But even though some stocks look to be topping out, the major industrial stocks behind this bull market are plowing ahead.
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Wednesday, March 09, 2011
Quarterly Stock and Commodity Markets Brief / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Short term traders love volatility and I reckon they are going to get it over the next few months. The catalysts will be oil price instability, rising interest rates worldwide, dollar gyrations and higher inflation. Accordingly note that the VXX is intimating a significant breakout.
The current market correction, which was nicely anticipated, is providing smart traders with ample opportunities. Sectors to watch are oil (ETF: USO), Silver (Ultra ETF: AGQ) Financials (Direxion Bear ETF: FAZ) Mid Caps (Direxion Bear: TZA) and Technology (Ultra Bull ETF: QLD).
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Wednesday, March 09, 2011
Dow Jones Stocks Index in Silver / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has had tremendous nominal growth since bottoming in March of 2009. Although the Dow has risen to over 12,000 it is important for investors to keep in perspective that nominal point gains of the Dow don't necessarily mean stock investors have increased their overall wealth and purchasing power versus other asset classes.
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Tuesday, March 08, 2011
Manpower Survey Bullish, But Stock Market Correction Threat Remains / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
We have some good news on the hiring front this morning, which aligns with our longer-term bullish outlook. However, we remain concerned short-term, and will be patient in terms of redeploying the cash we have raised in recent weeks. According to Bloomberg:
More U.S. employers said they plan to boost payrolls in the second quarter, and fewer expect to reduce headcounts, a private survey found. Manpower Inc. (MAN), the world’s second-largest provider of temporary workers, said today that 16 percent plan to add workers in the April-June period, up from 14 percent in the first quarter. The share of those projecting workforce reductions fell to 6 percent from 10 percent.
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Tuesday, March 08, 2011
Who’s Going to Regulate the Regulators? / Stock-Markets / Market Regulation
The single most dominant theme among political commentators is the belief that government should do something – anything – to fix the financial system. Regardless of party affiliation, there is a near universal agreement that government should be charged with the task of regulating the financial realm in order to prevent another catastrophe.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
Crude Oil Spike Hits Stock Market.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
It was only a matter of time before oil hit this market with the price of oil over $100 for this long. It has been trading well above $100 dollars per barrel for several days now with a spike near $107 per barrel pre-market today. The market finally gave it up to some degree on this spike, although not as much as one might think based on the breakout technically in place.
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