Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, January 30, 2022
Gold Price in 2022 Between Inflationary Rock and Hard Fed Hard Place / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold’s fate in 2021 will be determined mainly by inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it.In the epic struggle between chaos and order, chaos has an easier task, as there is usually only one proper method to do a job – the job that you can screw up in many ways. Thus, although economists see a strong economic expansion with cooling prices and normalization in monetary policies in 2022, many things could go wrong. The Omicron strain of coronavirus or its new variants could become more contagious and deadly, pushing the world into the Great Lockdown again. The real estate crisis in China could lead the country into recession, with serious economic consequences for the global economy. Oh, by the way, we could see an escalation between China and Taiwan, or between China and the US, especially after the recent test of hypersonic missiles by the former country.
Having said that, I believe that the major forces affecting the gold market in 2022 will be – similarly to last year’s – inflation and the Fed’s response to it. Considering things in isolation, high inflation should be supportive of gold prices. The problem here is that gold prefers high and rising inflation. Although the inflation rate should continue its upward move for a while, it’s likely to peak this year.
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Sunday, January 30, 2022
Gold Plunged but Didn’t Knuckle Under to the Hawkish Fed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The FOMC set the stage for a March interest rate hike, which was an aggressive signal. Gold got it and fell – but hasn't capitulated yet.The Battlecruiser Hawk is moving full steam ahead! The FOMC issued yesterday (January 26, 2022) its newest statement on monetary policy in which it strengthened its hawkish stance. First of all, the Fed admitted that it would start hiking interest rates “soon”:
With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.
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Tuesday, January 25, 2022
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
You don't have to be a fortune teller to predict some of the precious metals’ behavior in the market. Any incoming signs take the shape of a bear.
What a signal-rich week that was! At least if you’re interested in forecasting gold and predicting silver prices.
The USD Index rallied, but that was the least interesting of the important developments, as it had already reversed during the preceding week. So, the fact that the USD Index continued its medium-term uptrend last week is not that noteworthy.
Tuesday, January 25, 2022
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
My outlook for the gold market in 2022 suffers from manic depression: I see first a period of despair and an elevated mood later.So, 2021 is over! 2022 will be better, right? Yeah, for sure! Just relax, what bad could happen?
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Tuesday, January 25, 2022
Gold; a stellar picture / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
Gold’s ‘real’ price indicates a fine ‘risk vs. reward’
[edit] Since this article will be distributed to a wider viewership than nftrh.com, where regular readers know I take pains not to hype this most precious ‘value’ asset, take note that a positive risk vs. reward does not mean run out and go whole hog gold stock bull right this minute. Risk vs. reward is a condition, but not a timer. The miners, as of now, are on a seasonal bounce/rally. But with patience, the sector is setting up to distinguish itself as unique and quite bullish in 2022.
As today’s (Thursday’s) market activity shows, the bubble is still in force as US stock markets/sectors generally remain intact (for the most part, with some notable exceptions outside of the headliners, as certain table legs get kicked out). But gold is in a beautiful Cup & Handle structure, as I’ve shown repeatedly (ref. 2022: The Golden Year) since NFTRH began projecting the handle-making in the summer of 2020.
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Saturday, January 22, 2022
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The precious metals still do pirouettes on the trading floor, but they can stumble in their choreography. The bears are just waiting for it.
With the GDX ETF soaring on significant volume on Jan. 19, the senior miners had a renewed pep in their step. With gold, silver, and mining stocks all dancing to the same beat, the precious metals garnered all of the bullish attention. However, with the trio known to cut their performances short as soon as investors arrive, will the mood music remain so sanguine?
Well, for one, the GDX ETF has a history of peaking when the crowd enters the party. For example, I marked with the blue vertical dashed lines and blue arrows below how large daily spikes in volume often coincide with short-term peaks. Moreover, with another ominous event unfolding on Jan. 19, historical data implies that we’re much closer to the top than the bottom.
Thursday, January 20, 2022
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Crude oil prices closed yesterday near their 7-year highs. What do you think are the main price drivers prevailing for this surge on crude oil prices?
Geopolitical Situation
Crude oil prices closed yesterday near their 7-year highs, as an attack on an oil site in Abu Dhabi further strained an already tense market. The concern about the deterioration of the situation between Ukraine and Russia, which has been occurring for several days, has been overtaken by the attack on the infrastructures of the United Arab Emirates. On Monday, an attack probably committed by drones blew up three tank trucks near the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)’s reservoirs.
Wednesday, January 19, 2022
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
While the USD show is gaining applause, silver has decided to present its repertoire too. Was its rally just a magic trick or a good omen for gold?
Bond yields soared once again, just as I’ve been expecting them to for many months now. The reaction in some markets was as expected (the USD Index soared), but in some, it was perplexing. Gold moved lower a little, miners declined a bit more, and silver… rallied. Who’s faking it?
Well, perhaps nobody is. Let’s look at the yields’ movement first.
Monday, January 17, 2022
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
PREDICTIONS FOR GOLD
There seems to be an almost fanatical obsession with ‘fortune telling’ when it comes to the financial markets. Gold is no exception.
It is worth taking a look back at some earlier predictions to help put things in perspective…
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Friday, January 14, 2022
Gold Price Lagging Inflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold is lagging the raging inflation unleashed by the Fed’s epic money printing. Despite leading inflation benchmarks skyrocketing to multi-decade highs, gold prices have barely budged. Serious inflation initially fuels record-high stock markets, which stunt gold investment demand. But festering inflation increasingly erodes corporate earnings, hitting stock prices. As stock markets roll over, gold will start reflecting this inflation.
Runaway inflation is increasingly plaguing the United States, as evident in this week’s major economic releases. The December Consumer Price Index headline number came in up 7.0% year-over-year, its hottest print since June 1982! That’s a 39.5-year high, despite the CPI being intentionally lowballed by the government to mask inflation. Fast-rising general prices slash standards of living, angering American voters.
This latest CPI report claimed food and shelter costs only climbed 6.3% and 4.1% over this past year. Is that your experience? The actual increases in grocery bills, housing, and rent costs have likely soared at triple-to-quadruple those pretend trajectories. Leading into this latest CPI release, new research from Bank of America reported food, housing, and rent prices have blasted about 27%, 18%, and 12% higher YoY!
Shelter accounts for about a third of the CPI, which is held artificially-low through a fiction called owners’ equivalent rent. That is just a survey asking homeowners to guess how much they’d expect to pay to rent a house of similar quality! Most Americans who aren’t real-estate professionals wouldn’t have a clue on that. The CPI is full of similar statistical trickery instead of using honest hard free-market data on prices.
The December Producer Price Index showing wholesale price trends looked even worse, soaring 9.7% YoY! That was a record high in this current PPI iteration. Far more inflation is baked into the pipeline, as an intermediate-demand PPI subindex rocketed up 24.4% YoY! These soaring input costs are cutting into corporate earnings, and will ultimately be passed along to customers driving more price increases.
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Sunday, January 09, 2022
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Gary_Tanashian
A stroll through recent and not so recent inflationary history
[edit] Some wording and a couple typos cleaned up from original post, no changes to themes…
A Cynical Fed is a Dangerous Fed
On ‘Fed minutes Wednesday’ the media amplified the noise, the machines are doing what the machines do and running with it, and it’s all eyes on the great and powerful Fed (of Oz).
The Fed created the cyclical inflation (in NFTRH we detailed and managed the process successfully in real time) and thus the Fed created the cycle. In 2021 the Fed was exposed to the public as the agent of inflation it actually is, and when the inflation threatened to get out of hand they went into damage control mode. Now the Fed is trying to cool the inflation, which means cooling the cycle itself. You can’t have your inflated cake and eat it too. Not when the racket is exposed to the public.
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Friday, January 07, 2022
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
The higher price for gold over time reflects the loss in purchasing power of the US dollar. The loss in the dollar’s purchasing power is an effect of inflation.
Over the past century, the US dollar has lost approximately ninety-nine percent of its purchasing power. The loss in purchasing power is reflected in a gold price that has increased one-hundred fold ($20.67 oz. x 100 = $2067 oz).
The effect of deflation on the gold price is different. To be more accurate, the effect of deflation on gold’s price is opposite to the effect resulting from inflation.
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Friday, January 07, 2022
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Submissions
Happy new year, everyone! We hope that 2022 will be a prosperous one for all our readers. However, will it be successful for oil?
Energy Market Updates
Yesterday, crude oil prices ended higher, after a volatile session as US inventories fell by 6.4 million barrels – more than twice the previous week – which is another positive sign for demand.
Thursday, January 06, 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Submissions
Silver is one of the few precious metals that have been popular among investors for quite some time. It’s an inflation hedge that can potentially protect one's wealth against uncertain times and market turmoil, which is probably why the silver market is seen as one of the most reliable investment options in recent years. Some investors have also been impressed by how silver has outperformed other assets such as stocks and how it has demonstrated its value appreciation over time.If you're planning to add silver to your investment portfolio, you should be aware that there are several methods for investing in this precious metal. This article will show you how to invest in silver in 2022.
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Wednesday, January 05, 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold, silver, and mining stocks started 2022 with a bang. However, this wasn’t the kind of fireworks investors were hoping for.
While gold, silver, and mining stocks partied hard into year-end, the trio woke up to massive hangovers on Jan. 3. Although I’ve been warning for some time that mining stocks would stumble in 2021, the New Year is still filled with old problems.
For example, the GDX ETF has been making lower lows and lower highs for months, and when its RSI (Relative Strength Index) approaches 70, the senior miners often run out of gas. For context, I highlighted the events with the blue vertical dashed lines below.
Tuesday, January 04, 2022
Will Gold & Silver Be Investment Outcasts in 2022 Again? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
For precious metals investors, 2021 will rank as a disappointing year – at least in terms of price performance. Gold and silver lagged behind the stock market as well as broad commodity indexes.
Gold showed signs of gathering upside momentum in the spring, but prices settled back down into a wide trading range for the rest of the year. The monetary metal is down about 3% for the year but will finish well off its lows.
Turning to silver, the white metal finished down over 9% for 2021.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2022
Complete paradigm shift will make Gold the generational trade / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Michael_J_Kosares
Wall Street billionaire and financier Thomas Kaplan (who once said, “I’m no insect; gold is a great way to make a lot of money.”) is among the group of analysts who believes gold is in the early stages of a new up leg in its long-term secular bull market. Though Kaplan made his fortune in the mining business, he is also an Oxford-trained historian (with a Ph.D.) capable of putting gold’s current price trend in the context of a longer-term cycle – one he believes has not yet reached full maturity. (Please see chart below.)
“Let’s put it this way,” he says in a memorable interview with Stansberry Research’s Daniela Cambone, “gold still remains on Wall Street and in the west probably the most under-owned, least crowded trade in the global financial markets. … The era in which gold was the asset which people loved to hate and hated to love is starting to come to an end. We’re still in the very early innings. It’s still a smart money trade as opposed to a big passive money trade but that’s about to happen.” The next leg up, he believes, will be driven by what he calls “bold-faced” names now involved in the gold business. Kaplan, in that regard, mentions Warren Buffett (who at the time of the interview had just purchased stock in mining giant Barrick Gold), Mohamed El Erian, Mark Mobius, Ray Dalio, Paul Tudor Jones, Jeffrey Gundlach, and Kenneth Rogoff. (Long-time readers of this newsletter will recognize that list of notables as abbreviated.)
“The difference is this,” he concludes. “The market is now ready for the next leg of the gold bull market. The first leg was the one that took us up 12 consecutive years in a row regardless of whether there were inflation fears, deflation fears, whether there was a glut of oil or a shortage of oil, political stability or political instability, dollar weakness, dollar strength. It didn’t matter. Every year for 12 years gold went up. The next move is going to be a third wave, a long wave that lasts for a decade or fifteen years, maybe more … I think that you really are looking at a complete paradigm shift that will make gold the generational trade.” From there, Kaplan goes on to say that gold will reach $3000 to $5000 in the years to come.
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Sunday, January 02, 2022
Excuse Me Mr Gold. What Year Is It? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Although your calendar may say otherwise, gold is in the 1960s. The question is whether we will move into the 1970s or speed-run to the mid-2010s.Did you go overboard with your time travel and lose track of time? Probably not, but just in case, I assure you that the current year is 2021. To be 100% sure, I fact-checked it on a dedicated webpage for time-travelers. However, the authority of science is being questioned, and there are people who say that, from a macroeconomic point of view, we are approaching the 1970s, or at least the 1960s. There are also voices saying that the gold market is replaying 2012-2013. Although appearances point to 2021, let’s investigate what year we really live in.
The similarities with the 1970s are obvious. Just like then, we have high inflation, large fiscal deficits (see the chart below), and easy, erroneous monetary policy. Fifty years ago, the Fed blamed inflation on exogenous shocks and considered inflation to be transitory too. The new monetary regime adopted by the US central bank in 2020 also takes us back to the 70s and the mistaken belief that the economy cannot overheat, so the Fed can let inflation run above the target for a while in order to boost employment.
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Friday, December 31, 2021
Gold Price Forecast 2022 - The Golden Year / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
The NFTRH big picture view for gold has been bullish since calling a top in mid-2020
Pardon the promotional sound of the title. I realize it, and I’m putting it up there anyway. There is a time for temperance and there is a time for promotion. Too many in the gold sphere forget about that first thing when risk is high, and in August, 2020 it was at nosebleed levels.
As you can see, the ‘real’ commodity adjusted price of gold was already in a long-term bull market from 2008 and it had actually turned up in 2019 before getting put all out of whack during 2020’s deflationary fear fest. The relief shown in this indicator has been in play for as long as the public has been aware of the inflation created by the Fed and the ‘inflation trades’ associated with it.
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Friday, December 31, 2021
Will 2022 Be Better for Gold Than 2021? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
2021 was bad for gold. Unfortunately, 2022 doesn’t look any better, especially at the beginning. The end, however, gives the yellow metal some hope…
Bye, bye 2021! It definitely wasn’t a year of gold. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal lost 5% of its value over the last twelve months, declining from $1,887.60 on December 30, 2020, to $1,794.25 on December 29, 2021. Thus, the gold bulls won’t miss 2021, I guess.