Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, May 11, 2013
Wage Inflation - A Bond Bull Turns Bearish / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
"The large shortfall of employment relative to its maximum level has imposed huge burdens on all too many American households and represents a substantial social cost. In addition, prolonged economic weakness could harm the economy's productive potential for years to come. The long-term unemployed can see their skills erode, making these workers less attractive to employers. If these jobless workers were to become less employable, the natural rate of unemployment might rise or, to the extent that they leave the labor force, we could see a persistently lower rate of labor force participation." - Janet L. Yellen, Vice-Chair, US Federal Reserve, March 4, 2013
Friday, May 10, 2013
Symptoms Don't Lie, The Economic Patient is Getting Sicker / Economics / Inflation
By: Peter_Schiff
A good doctor will not simply make a diagnosis based on measurements. The symptoms and complaints expressed by the patient are at least as important in making a determination as the data provided by diagnostic tools. When the data says one thing and the symptoms continuously say another, it makes sense to question the reliability of the instruments. This would be particularly true if the instruments are furnished by a party with a stake in a favorable diagnosis, say an insurance company on the hook for treatment costs. The same holds true for the U.S. economy. Although our government-supplied data suggests we are experiencing low inflation and modest economic growth, the economy shows symptoms of low growth, rising prices, and diminishing purchasing power.
Thursday, May 09, 2013
Is Abenomics Going to Put Japan Economy Back on the Growth Map? / Economics / Japan Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In a special Outside the Box today, Keith Fitz-Gerald, Chief Investment Strategist for Money Morning, dissects "Abenomics," the radical, not to say outlandish, fiscal moves that the newly installed government of Japan is making. And Keith has a ringside seat: he spends much of each year in Japan.
In an attempt to cut the Japanese a little slack, Keith comes up with four things that will have to happen for Abenomics to work – but when all is said and done, he says, Abenomics is a recipe for disaster. That does not mean, however, that there is not plenty of opportunity here for short-term profit, and Keith offers a play that is a potential money maker in this volatile Japanese environment.
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Wednesday, May 08, 2013
Is This the End of Cheap Chinese Labor? / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Greg Madison writes: It's been the lament of everyone for years now: Cheap Chinese labor is killing the job market.
With lower wages and lax regulation, the giant sucking sound we heard was manufacturing jobs headed from Sheboygan to Shenzhen.
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Tuesday, May 07, 2013
What Chained CPI Inflation Really Means To You / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
Jason Jenkins writes: When U.S. President Obama released his 2014 budget proposal last month, many Americans who paid attention to the details needed a measurement he used - "chained CPI" - explained.
That's because President Obama used chained CPI (consumer price index) to help shave off more than $1 trillion from spending on government programs.
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Monday, May 06, 2013
The Case Against Economic Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Regular readers will know I am in the inflation, possibly hyperinflation camp; but there are those that think the future is more likely to be deflationary. In the main this is the view of neoclassical economists, Keynesians and monetarists, who generally foresee a 1930s-style slump unless the economy is stimulated out of it.
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Monday, May 06, 2013
April U.S. Jobs Report Begins to Show the Signs of the "Obamacare Effect" / Economics / Employment
By: Money_Morning
Diane Alter writes: Economists breathed a sigh of relief when the Labor Department reported a better than expected April employment report on Friday, but the details show cracks still remain.
Many of the job gains proved to be in lower paying fields and the average number of hours worked dipped.
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Monday, May 06, 2013
QE Has Been and Will Be a Complete and Utter Failure / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed is now blaming Congress for the failures of its QE policies.
This is to be expected, given that no one in the power elite ever accepts responsibility for their own failures. Congressional members blames each other (depending on which party they’re in), the Fed blames Congress, the White House blames the GOP, and on and on.
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Monday, May 06, 2013
Keynes - Two Sides of the Same Debased Coin / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Hunter Lewis writes: In the beginning of The General Theory, John Maynard Keynes says that his ideas will no doubt be rejected because they are so novel and revolutionary. Toward the end of the same book, he seems to have forgotten this because now he says he is reviving the same centuries-old ideas that he had once dismissed as the most absurd fallacies. At least he acknowledges that he is changing his position, although he does not explain how his ideas can be new, revolutionary, and also centuries old.
Sunday, May 05, 2013
The Next Great Economic Depression Has Already Started In Europe / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Submissions
Michael Snyder writes: The next Great Depression is already happening - it just hasn't reached the United States yet. Things in Europe just continue to get worse and worse, and yet most people in the United States still don't get it. All the time I have people ask me when the "economic collapse" is going to happen. Well, for ages I have been warning that the next major wave of the ongoing economic collapse would begin in Europe, and that is exactly what is happening. In fact, both Greece and Spain already have levels of unemployment that are greater than anything the U.S. experienced during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Sunday, May 05, 2013
Spain and France Facing Huge Unemployment / Economics / Unemployment
By: Submissions
Brett Chatz writes: No end is in sight regarding the current rise in unemployment in Spain and France. Neither does there appear to be any economic panacea to reverse the European recession. As in spread betting and contract for difference, the end product of the austerity program is determined by the accuracy of the European wager on diminishing national deficits rather than on addressing the unemployment problem. CFD trading is making an impact on share trading decisions, just as the economic outlook of the ECB impacts monetary decisions within individual countries.
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Wednesday, May 01, 2013
Falling World Population And The New Economic Prosperity / Economics / Demographics
By: Andrew_McKillop
TWO PARADIGMS
The so-called Trente Glorieuse years (1948-1975) of fast economic growth, low annual budget deficits, almost zero unemployment, cheap oil, small or zero national trade deficits, innovation and liberty in the Western countries - was also a period of population growth. Ever since, political thinking confused this result - population growth - with its causes which included fast economic growth. Still today, nearly all western countries have "natalist" policies trying to grow the national population, despite the reality of slow or no economic growth, sky high unemployment, and all the diseconomies of high population.
Wednesday, May 01, 2013
Has Sequestration Saved the U.S. Economy? / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: There's a Jamaican saying, "the higher the monkey climbs up the tree, the more his butt is exposed."
The point being that the more we rise, the more vulnerable we become.
That has truly come to pass for a pair of superstars of the dismal science. And it could have a big impact on how successfully (or unsuccessfully) we can get the U.S. economy back on the rails.
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Wednesday, May 01, 2013
Why Eurozone Recession Is Important for America / Economics / Global Economy
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Soros knows a thing or two about making money from big bets. In 1992, Soros made a $10.00 short wager on the British pound and walked away with a billion dollars in profits.
Soros is now convinced Germany needs to rethink its strategy toward the sustainability of the eurozone and, in a draconian manner, believes the country should leave the euro.
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Wednesday, May 01, 2013
Debt, Economic Growth, and the Austerity Debate / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2013
By: John_Mauldin
Two weeks ago I wrote about the current debate over the 2010 paper by Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart (hereinafter referred to as RR) on the correlation between debt and GDP growth. I said that the most important part of their work, which is the construction of an enormous database on debt and financial crises over the last few hundred years, was to be found in their book This Time Is Different and elsewhere. And their fundamental conclusion: debt is not a problem until it becomes one. And then it reaches a critical mass and you have what they called the Bang! moment.
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
GDP Economic Growth Statistics Bag of Tricks / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Michael_Pento
If you're not happy with the stumbling U.S. economy all you have to do is just wait a few more months. It seems the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will perform a little hocus pocus on the GDP numbers starting in July 2013. According to the Financial Times, U.S. GDP would become 3% bigger due to the new change in its growth calculations.
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Tuesday, April 30, 2013
America's Shadow Black Economy Doubles to $2 Trillion / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes: Doing what they can to survive in a dour job market, millions of Americans exist in an underground economy that has ballooned to $2 trillion annually.
By "underground economy," we're talking about all the business activity that is not reported to the government, which includes a growing number of people getting paid for their labor in cash.
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Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Paul Krugman - The Most Dangerous Man in the World / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: When it comes to spending or saving, it's always a contentious debate.
But the risks are rarely as high as they are now for the U.S. and most major industrial nations. Such fundamental economic decisions will move a country forward (or backward) for decades, not months, and can't be undone quickly.
So let's choose the "winner" and "loser" of this debate carefully.
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Monday, April 29, 2013
Goodbye to Economic Austerity / Economics / Global Economy
By: Alasdair_Macleod
There is a new campaign to end austerity. First, the IMF lets it be known it has second thoughts about it; then we are told the threshold of 90% government debt to GDP which must not be crossed, set by Professors Reinhart & Rogoff, is based on an excel spread-sheet error. Lastly, Bill Gross of PIMCO, the largest bond fund in the world, tells us austerity is not working.
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Saturday, April 27, 2013
The Underground Economic Recovery, a Cashless Society? / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
But Mousie, thou art [not alone], In proving foresight may be vain: The best-laid schemes o' mice an' men Gang aft agley, An' lea'e us nought but grief an' pain, For promis'd joy! Robert Burns, To a Mouse, on Turning Her Up in Her Nest with the Plough
It is a common trope in science fiction novels. Economic transactions are handled seamlessly with a wave of a card or a physically imbedded chip, and whatever the author imagines money to be is transferred, far removed from the archaic confines of ancient physical monies. If you Google "cashless society" you get about 600,000 references in under a second, and 20 pages into the references there are still articles on a future world where physical cash is no longer needed. Some see it as a sign of the "end times," some as a capitalist plot, some as a frightening vision of socialists and ever-bigger governments, and some as a logical step in the evolution of a technologically driven international commerce.
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