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Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, September 23, 2013

Madoff’s Ponzi Scheme Looks Like a Joke Compared to U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: The “Bernie” Madoff name became famous while the stock market was falling during the credit and financial crisis. He was responsible for running one of the biggest Ponzi schemes in U.S. history—if I recall correctly, it was a $65.0-billion scheme. But as the scam got bigger, Madoff couldn’t go on. He was caught, prosecuted, and sentenced to more than 100 years in jail.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, September 22, 2013

The Fed Is Already In the End Game / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Graham_Summers

The Fed failed to announce a Taper yesterday of any kind.

It is positively outrageous, but it does inform us of many things.

First and foremost, the Fed has made it clear that it cannot be hawkish is any way. We had just two months of hinting at tapering QE from the Fed (Bernanke was back talking up how accommodating he’d be by July).

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Debt is Still Cheap, and Getting Looser / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Douglas_French

Suddenly, borrowing and lending is all the rage again.

The financial crash was five years ago this fall, and nobody is letting us forget it. According to ex-FDIC Chair Sheila Bair, financial soundness isn't much improved. She says, "I think our system is still somewhat fragile, a lot more needs to be done."

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 21, 2013

No Taper E-Alchemy with the US Fed / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Adrian_Ash

Imagine the US Fed had a technology called the 'printing press'...

SO LIKE ME, the world and its stockbroker thought the US Fed would start trimming QE money-printing this Wednesday.

US Treasury bonds were down, stocks were soft, and gold and silver were long set for a cut to the money-creation scheme, too.

The Fed seemed determined. Ben Bernanke said as much in June. But no.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Fed Small QE Tapering in Ocotber is Possible / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Bloomberg

Bloomberg Television's Sara Eisen and Tom Keene sat down with Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President/CEO, James Bullard to discuss the Fed's decision not to taper and said that a 'small taper' in October is possible, that he doesn't want to see brinkmanship on debt, and insisted that the Fed still absolutely targets dual mandate.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Faber: On Bernanke Failure to Taper QE / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Bloomberg

Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, stopped by Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart" today and told Trish Regan, Adam Johnson and Matt Miller that Janet Yellen would "make Mr. Bernanke look like a hawk."

Faber also said, "When I look at the market action today, I would like to see the next few days, because it may be a one-day event. The markets are overbought. The Feds have already lost control of the bond market. The question is when will it lose control of the stock market."

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 19, 2013

The QE Taper That Wasn't / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Peter_Schiff

The Fed's failure today to announce some sort of tapering of its QE program, despite the consensus of an overwhelming percentage of economists who expected action, once again reveals the degree to which mainstream analysts have overestimated the strength of our current economy. The Fed understands, as the market seems not to, that the current "recovery" could not survive without continuation of massive monetary stimulus. Mainstream economists have mistaken the symptoms of the Fed's monetary expansion, most notably rising stock and real estate prices, as signs of real and sustainable growth. But the current asset price bubbles have nothing to do with the real economy. To the contrary, they are setting up for a painful correction that will likely be worse than the one we experienced five years ago.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

US Treasury Bonds Corrective Rally Could Forecast / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gregor_Horvat

I hate to say this again, but major pairs on the FX market place still have a very unclear price action and no direction at all on the intra-day basis. It’s probably “calm before the storm” ahead of highly anticipated FOMC press conference of the last few years, when Bernanke could announce tapering.  Statement will be out at 18:00GMT and press conference will be scheduled 30 minutes later. So until then we may not see a lot of price action today.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 13, 2013

Which Way Will the US Federal Reserve Jump? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Submissions

Adam Green writes: The next 2-day monthly conference meeting of the US Federal Reserve is scheduled to begin on Tuesday, 17th September. Speculation has now been rampant for months about when the Fed will commence tapering its influential stimulus policies and what impact such actions would have on the financial markets. This article sets out to define the most likely possibilities. Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Bond Markets Are No Longer Safe Havens From Stock Market Risks / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Bond yields spike to a 2-year high

Two months ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he was puzzled by the upward surge in Treasury yields. And bond yields are even higher now, reaching a two-year high on August 15.

But the rise in bond yields - and the concomitant drop in bond prices since they move inversely to yields - is no surprise to EWI analysts. EWI's June 2012 Special Report on bonds noted: "If rates do begin to rise as we expect, most observers will probably be fooled. Bulls on the economy may take the new trend as a sign of economic expansion."

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

No Bond Market Vigilantes Or Vultures Need Apply / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Raul_I_Meijer

With media and technology becoming faster and more pervasive at a rapid clip, it shouldn't perhaps be a big surprise to see the ease with which war-mongering news flashes come to dominate the story of the day. But maybe this should be received with an increasing dose of skepticism, maybe we should today, even more than before, try to figure out who benefits from one story dominating all major headlines, as if all other things going on are only of secondary importance, especially since new technologies allow those headlines to become so much more pervasive, coming in at an ever faster rhythm, that they are today's true bombardments.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Why the Fed Needs to Taper Now in Spite of Weak Jobs Report / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: The Federal Reserve will need to make a big decision soon, prior to its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in mid-September, regarding the continuation of its monetary policy. Before Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, the decision was somewhat easy to make on the heels of positive economic data and a good second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) reading. The initial claims for the most recent week were the lowest since before the recession.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

How This Week’s Fed Meeting Could Impact Your Portfolio / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: All eyes are on this week’s important Federal Reserve meeting, in which many analysts expect that the Federal Reserve will decide to begin to lower its $85.0-billion-per-month asset purchase program.

But things might not be that easy, since the report on job creation released last Friday is showing signs of deceleration.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, September 08, 2013

David Stockman on his Book and the Bailouts / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: MISES

Mises Institute: In the book, you oppose Bernanke’s view of the Great Depression, which you point out relies heavily on the views of Milton Friedman.

David Stockman: Bernanke has cultivated this idea that he is a brilliant scholar of The Great Depression, but that’s not true at all. What Bernanke did was basically copy Milton Friedman’s misguided and very damaging theory that the Federal Reserve didn’t expand its balance sheet fast enough by massive open market purchases of government debt during the Great Depression. Bernanke therefore claimed that monetary stringency deepened and lengthened the depression, but in fact interest rates plummeted during the crucial 1930-1933 period: credit contracted due to genuine and widespread insolvencies in the agricultural districts and industrial boom towns, causing bank deposits to shrink as a passive consequence. So Bernanke had cause and effect upside down — a historical error that he replicated with reckless abandon in response to the bursting of the housing and credit bubble in 2008.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, September 08, 2013

The Fed Has Wasted Trillions and the US Will Default / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Graham_Summers

The facts are now becoming abundantly clear, that the forecast we’ve maintained for well over two years has been validated: the US is in a DE-pression and both Washington and the Federal Reserve have wasted trillions of Dollars.

The reality is that what’s happening in the US today is not a cyclical recession, but a one in 100 year, secular economic shift.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 07, 2013

PIMCO's Gross: Fed Will Still Taper After Jobs Report / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Bloomberg

PIMCO's Bill Gross appeared on "Bloomberg Surveillance" today, telling host Tom Keene: "I think Bernanke and company are committed to a taper...It will be taper lite as opposed to a strong tapering." Transcript below.

Gross on today's jobs report being the new normal:

"Yes, it sure was. And I guess the revision of last month was the biggest shocker. And the fall, of course, as you mentioned in terms of the participation rate from 63.4 to 63.2. You know, the unemployment rate is down, for those that focus on the unemployment rate, it is 7.3 percent. They would simply suggest we are closer to tapering and closer to a fed funds increase at some point. But I would suggest otherwise, that it is really a weaker economy as evidenced by today's report."

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 03, 2013

Bond Markets Offer No Protection From Stock Market Risk / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Bond yields spike to a 2-year high

Two months ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he was puzzled by the upward surge in Treasury yields. And bond yields are even higher now, reaching a two-year high on August 15.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Higher Interest Rates - Bond Vigilantes Hold Upper Hand Over Central Banks / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Gary_Dorsch

Whenever former Fed chief Alan Greenspan was praised for delivering a clear message on US- monetary policy, he used to reply, "I guess I should warn you. If I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said." On June 7th, Greenspan set off the alarm bells on Wall Street by telling viewers of CNBC that the time had arrived for the Fed to begin tapering its $85-billion a month bond buying binge, even if the US-economy isn't ready for it. "The sooner we come to grips with this excessive level of assets on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, - that everybody agrees is excessive, - the better," he said in a "Squawk Box" interview. "There is a general presumption that we can wait indefinitely and make judgments on when we're going to move. I'm not sure the market will allow us to do that."

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

The Global QE Exit Crisis, Guidance Schmidance / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: John_Mauldin

In last week's Outside the Box, which included a paper from the San Francisco Federal Reserve on the effectiveness of quantitative easing, I wrote, "What [authors] Cúrdia and Ferrero are really saying is that the latest round of QE, massive as it has been, has not had all that much effect on the economy, and that other factors should be taken into account. I'm sure this thesis is somewhat controversial, and I look forward to seeing what QE proponents like David Zervos over at Jefferies have to say about it."

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 26, 2013

Will the Last Person to Exit the Treasury Market Please Turn Out the Lights / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

Wall Street and Washington love to spread fables that facilitate feelings of bliss among the investing public. For example, recall in 2005 when they inculcated to consumers the notion that home prices have never, and will never, fall on a national basis. We all know how that story turned out. Along with their belief that real estate prices couldn't fall, is one of their favorite conciliatory mantras that still exists today. Namely, that foreign investors have no choice but to perpetually support the U.S. debt market at any price and at any yield.

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