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Stock Market Rally Priced in Gold Not Dollars

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009 Nov 13, 2009 - 12:41 PM GMT

By: Adrian_Ash

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNon-US investors haven't enjoyed the same stock rally as Wall Street. Whereas in gold...

"THE DOLLAR is still driving gold," agree the analysts, pundits and chart-watchers now scratching their heads about where gold is headed next.


That's kind of true, but not entirely. Yes, the Dollar's fall against gold since the start of this decade has been greater than the drop suffered to date by the rest of the world's currencies.

But the last 20% move in Dollar gold prices, for instance – starting from the mid-July low – has been outpaced by gold adjusted for the greenback's fluctuating currency value, as measured by the US Dollar Index.

Priced in these "Not Dollars", gold has risen 26% since midsummer, as this chart (gold for the Dollar price, blue for the adjusted value, and both starting from Jan. 2000 values) shows.

The reverse is true of the US stock market's big surge, however, because it started when the Dollar was stronger and set to weaken – rather than the tepid rally it's put in so far this fall.

Priced in Not Dollars, the S&P has risen by a lower percentage from the March bottom – up 39% – than its USD value.

In fact, almost one-quarter of the S&P's bounce to date could, if you so wished, be attributed to the weaker Dollar. Non-US investors have failed to enjoy the same rally as Wall Street. Whereas in gold, since it turned sharply higher, they've outperformed – on average – to date.

By Adrian Ash
BullionVault.com

Gold price chart, no delay | Free Report: 5 Myths of the Gold Market
City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and a regular contributor to MoneyWeek magazine, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News and head of research at www.BullionVault.com , giving you direct access to investment gold, vaulted in Zurich , on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2009

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

Adrian Ash Archive

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