Stock Market Nervous...Everyone Is.... Falling Off the Fiscal Cliff?

By: Jack_Steiman

How can you blame people for feeling anxious about falling off the fiscal cliff? There are so many bad things that come from such an event should it play out. Taxes will rise. Corporate America will stop even the thought of hiring. Jobs will be lost. People will feel insecure, even if they still have a job. Spending by the public will decrease, probably quite dramatically. The economy would be dealing with an instant and devastating shock to the system. Recession would be upon us immediately. It goes on and on.

Bottom line is it equates to a lot of grief for the innocent who don't deserve it. What's standing in our way is a lot of frightening egos who would rather see people suffer than do the right thing if it means giving in to what seems like any degree. You have to wonder how it can come down to the last minute with so much at stake. Scary when you think about it. We should have had a solution in place long ago. Again, it's about power and egos and that's always first with our Government leaders.

That seemingly will never change. We've grown accustomed to it to some degree, because most of their ineptitude doesn't hit us on a daily basis. This particular issue, however, hits us all right between the eyes. It makes their inadequacies more recognizable. It shouldn't be this way, but there's no end in sight to the nonsense. Now we have to wait over the weekend to see if the egos can give in just enough to get an appropriate bill passed. Not something that doesn't work in the long run but a real program that stimulates. I had faith things would get done, but even I have to say I have grave doubts about our leaders doing what it takes. It may be asking more from them emotionally than they're capable of giving. I hope that's not the case, but they have done nothing to show the outcome will be anything but poor. We can hope. Hope may be all we have. Their actions certainly don't make us feel good, so we can hope that the light goes on for the most important of the group. We shall see. So far, not a good start. No shock but it should never have come down to this.

The market started the day down decently. It tried several times during the day to rebound as it was anticipating something good to happen out of Washington. A meeting was scheduled by President Obama to meet with Boehner, McConnell and Reid. It was scheduled for 3 PM eastern time, one hour before the market would close. The market was weak in to that last hour, but far from terrible, far from falling apart.

It was announced roughly thirty minutes later that there would be no plan agreed upon from their meeting. Market sold off in to the end of the day, but again, nothing too horrific. It will get horrific if it's not solved, but the bottom line is the market refused to accept no deal heading into the weekend. It closed on the lows, but the real action was after hours with the S&P 500 down as much as a 12 handle. Hopefully, that will improve, but that's a scary plunge for the after-hours session. You basically never see that type of drop unless there's a real crisis such as tarp was. Not good folks.

1350 S&P 500 is the long-term up trend line that needs to hold. It really is the separation between bull and bear market for the bigger picture. If it breaches by a bit, that isn't bad at all. If it falls through with force and doesn't come back quickly, it's lights out for this market. Bear market in place, but that's a ways off. Just something to watch over time. Hopefully, we won't have to watch that closely. Apple Inc. (AAPL) is testing once again the 510 down to 501 area. It's been pushing on this level quite a bit. It's getting heavy. If it loses 501 it can see 470 very quickly. We need to watch this level with an eagles eye. AAPL is the leader. It needs to hold at 501. With the futures down huge after hours, it looks bad, but you never know what may happen over the weekend, so we shall see what things look like Monday morning. Let's hope it looks better than it does after hours.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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