Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
4 Insurance Policies You Should Consider Buying - 6th May 21
Fed Taper Smoke and Mirrors - 5th May 21
Global Economic Recovery 2021 and the Dark Legacies of Smoot-Hawley - 5th May 21
Utility Stocks Continue To Rally – Sending A Warning Signal Yet? - 5th May 21
ROIMAX Trading Platform Review - 5th May 21
Gas and Electricity Price Trends so far in 2021 for the United Kingdom - 5th May 21
Crypto Bubble Mania Free Money GPU Mining With NiceHash Continues... - 4th May 21
Stock Market SPX Short-term Correction - 4th May 21
Gold & Silver Wait Their Turn to Ride the Inflationary Wave - 4th May 21
Gold Can’t Wait to Fall – Even Without USDX’s Help - 4th May 21
Stock Market Investor Psychology: Here are 2 Rare Traits Now on Display - 4th May 21
Sheffield Peoples Referendum May 6th Local Elections 2021 - Vote for Committee Decision's or Dictatorship - 4th May 21
AlphaLive Brings Out Latest Trading App for Android - 4th May 21
India Covid-19 Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan & Bangladesh, Covid in Italy August 2019! - 3rd May 21
Why Ryzen PBO Overclock is Better than ALL Core Under Volting - 5950x, 5900x, 5800x, 5600x Despite Benchmarks - 3rd May 21
MMT: Medieval Monetary Theory - 3rd May 21
Magical Flowering Budgies Bird of Paradise Indoor Grape Vine Flying Fun in VR 3D 180 UK - 3rd May 21
Last Chance to GET FREE Money Crypto Mining with Your Desktop PC - 2nd May 21
Will Powell Lull Gold Bulls to Sweet Sleep? - 2nd May 21
Stock Market Enough Consolidation Already! - 2nd May 21
Inflation or Deflation? (Not a silly question…) - 2nd May 21
What Are The Requirements For Applying For A Payday Loan Online? - 2nd May 21
How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part1 - 1st May 21
INDIA COVID APOCALYPSE - 1st May 21
Are Technicals Pointing to New Gold Price Rally? - 1st May 21
US Dollar Index: Subtle Changes, Remarkable Outcomes - 1st May 21
Stock Market Correction Time Window - 30th Apr 21
Stock Market "Fastest Jump Since 2007": How Leveraged Investors are Courting "Doom" - 30th Apr 21
Three Reasons Why Waiting for "Cheaper Silver" Doesn't Make Cents - 30th Apr 21
Want To Invest In US Real Estate Market But Don’t Have The Down Payment? - 30th Apr 21
King Zuckerberg Tech Companies to Set up their own Governments! - 29th Apr 21
Silver Price Enters Acceleration Phase - 29th Apr 21
Financial Stocks Sector Appears Ready To Run Higher - 29th Apr 21
Stock Market Leverage Reaches New All-Time Highs As The Excess Phase Rally Continues - 29th Apr 21
Get Ready for the Fourth U.S. Central Bank - 29th Apr 21
Gold Mining Stock: Were Upswings Just an Exhausting Sprint? - 29th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Lead the Bull Market Charge - 28th Apr 21
AMD Ryzen Overclocking Guide - 5900x, 5950x, 5600x PPT, TDC, EDC, How to Best Settings Beyond PBO - 28th Apr 21
Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator - 28th Apr 21
No Upsetting the Apple Cart in Stocks or Gold - 28th Apr 21
Is The Covaids Insanity Actually Getting Worse? - 28th Apr 21
Dogecoin to the Moon! The Signs are Everywhere, but few will Heed them - 28th Apr 21
SPX Indicators Flashing Stock Market Caution - 28th Apr 21
Gold Prices – Don’t Get Too Excited - 28th Apr 21
6 Challenges Contract Managers Face When Handling Contractual Agreements - 28th Apr 21
Corsair H150i Pro iCUE Firmware Update Says Bye Bye - H100i, H115i, Bricked Jet Engine Fans Fix - 27th Apr 21
Bude Cliff Walk and Secluded Pebble Beach Tour in VR 360 - Cornwall UK Holidays 2021 - 27th Apr 21
The Top 3 CBD Oils with Anti-Inflammatory Properties for Stopping Pain - 27th Apr 21 -
Biden’s Green New Deal - 27th Apr 21
Gold Stocks Upleg Accelerates - 27th Apr 21
The Tax Plan to Slay the Stocks Bull Market? - 26th Apr 21
See What’s Next for European Markets - 26th Apr 21
Gold's Perfect Storm - 26th Apr 21
Biden’s ‘Green Reset’ Could Be Great for Silver - 26th Apr 21
SPX Stock Market Short Squeeze – Here Or Not? - 25th Apr 21
Fiscal Guilt: What a Shift in Monetary Policy Portends for Investors - 25th Apr 21
Gold Price Reversal? Have No Fear! - 24th Apr 21
No Fear Of Inflation; Threat Of Deflation - 24th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Afghanistan Is America's New Vietnam Unwinnable War

Politics / Afghanistan May 08, 2017 - 05:18 PM GMT

By: John_Mauldin

Politics

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND KAMRAN BOKHARI : There is a paradox when it comes to views about Afghanistan. No one would disagree that after 15 years, the Afghan state built by the West remains ineffective. Yet, no one is willing to accept that if present trends continue, the clear outcome will be regime collapse.

The Afghan government is unable to thwart a growing jihadist insurgency dominated by the Taliban. Nor is it able to prevent the Islamic State (IS) from expanding its footprint in the country. Worse is that increased factional infighting is gutting the Afghan political system from the inside.


US President Trump and his team are engaged in a bottom-up review of US military commitments… not just in the Afghan state but across the globe.

Afghanistan Is The Longest War In American History

The Afghan state is a special case. It is the longest running war in American history. The US currently has almost 10,000 troops there. They operate in a supportive role to Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF).

The ANSF have primary responsibility for combat operations. But, they have shown that they are not able to deal with the Taliban insurgency. In the past three years, the ANSF have also faced a growing IS presence in the country.

The Taliban remain the dominant jihadist force and they have spread across the country. They now reach even into the north. They couldn’t previously penetrate there. Not even during the regime’s pre-9/11 heyday.

This is a war that cannot be won. And the US cannot continue to lose troops there. Washington still might stay in the hope that its deployment would give enough time for the Afghan forces to come up to speed. But that outcome is more and more elusive.

Afghan forces are losing ground to jihadist insurgents. They also suffer from a huge intelligence problem. The Taliban have penetrated the Afghan forces’ ranks. This is obvious from the many attacks that have taken place over the years due to security breaches.

On April 21, Taliban attackers entered a key army base in the northern Balkh province. They wore military uniforms and had bona fide identification. They also used military vehicles. That attack killed at least 150 soldiers in the compound.

The government has lost two central leaders since 2013. Since then, the Taliban’s war-making capabilities have not been dented. In fact, the Taliban insurgency continues to grow. The April 21 attack led to the resignations of the defense minister and the army chief.

The Afghan Government Is Unraveling

President Ashraf Ghani has since appointed replacements. But such moves are political in nature. And they have happened many times before. Afghan forces have never been well equipped to deal with insurgents. And the new appointments are unlikely to change that.

The problem is not simply weak security forces. The malaise runs much deeper. The Afghan state that the West built to replace the Taliban never really took hold and is now unraveling.

Low Morale Is Leading To Desertions And Defections

Those serving in the Afghan National Army, the Afghan National Police, and the National Directorate of Security (the intelligence service) see that the country’s political system is in tatters.

At the same time, they are targeted by a ferocious insurgency. And that uprising is gaining steam across the country. This does not bode well for morale.

The security forces’ confidence in the regime is declining. This downward trend cannot be stopped.

Such situations lead to a growing number of retreats from battlefields. There are also desertions from the ranks and defections to the insurgency. The rise of militias led by warlords is also a problem. The political system cannot endure.

No one in Washington is willing to officially admit there is a problem. But the US leadership is aware of the writing on the wall. There is nothing that the US can do to turn things around.

Is Afghanistan Another Vietnam?

There seems to be no solution. If there were, it would have been implemented long ago. We would not be in the 17th year of that war. American military power has limits. Of course, Washington can take down regimes. But it does not have the power to rebuild a nation. Nor can it pacify a country.

The US is likely to cut its losses and pull out as it did in Vietnam. At some point, the government in Kabul would collapse. What would be left is civil war. And that would be a continuation of Afghanistan’s history over the last four decades… with a new chapter.

Grab George Friedman's Exclusive eBook, The World Explained in Maps

The World Explained in Maps reveals the panorama of geopolitical landscapes influencing today's governments and global financial systems. Don't miss this chance to prepare for the year ahead with the straight facts about every major country’s and region's current geopolitical climate. You won't find political rhetoric or media hype here.

The World Explained in Maps is an essential guide for every investor as 2017 takes shape. Get your copy now—free!

John Mauldin Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in