Category: International Bond Market
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, October 01, 2023
Investing in UK and US Bonds / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
And we arrive out our final destination, one of where doom and gloom prevails, most fear much higher BOND market interest rates! Where we have the likes of Bill Ackman literally announcing he is shorting US bonds AFTER they have fallen! Where were they a year go when that was the time to short bonds?
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Wednesday, November 02, 2022
SMASHED Bond Markets Brewing Opportunity / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The consensus script is that when stocks fall bonds go up, instead 2022 saw that consensus view blown apart as the below chart illustrates. In fact bonds have NEVER under performed stocks during a downturn, not even during the raging inflation of the 1970's!
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
How High Debt Affects Bond Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Harry_Dent
The only Phd economist I allow to speak each year at the Irrational Economic Summit is Dr. Lacy Hunt. (You can watch his presentation from this year’s conference here.) Lacy can take that complex science and still see the forest for the trees. He can still find reality from all of that great theory to real-life outcomes.It also helps that he advises a $4 billion bond fund at Housington Management and has to get the reality of bond interest rates right or face the consequences – which he has for this entire boom!
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Friday, August 23, 2019
Seven Key Words That Explain "Stupidly High" Bond Market Prices / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Dan_Amerman
The front page of the August 16th Wall Street Journal contains the information found in the remarkable graph below.
As can be clearly seen, year to date around the world - including in Austria, Japan, Germany, and the U.S. and the U.K. - we are in practice seeing some of the most astonishing short-term returns ever seen when it comes to long and ultralong bonds.
The title of the WSJ article is "Forget Stocks. Ultralong Bonds Are The Real Gamble", and the author refers to the current bond price levels around the world as being "stupidly high". If we look at the dominant investment theories from prior decades, which the great majority of financial planners, financial journalists and retirement investors still treat as being the gospel wisdom for today - then he makes some very strong points about just how ridiculous those prices are, and why they shouldn't exist.
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Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Why Bond Investors MUST Be Paying Attention to Puerto Rico / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Rodney_Johnson
They lie, cheat, and steal? No way!In 2014, Puerto Rico issued $3.5 billion in bonds backed by the full faith and credit of the Commonwealth. Now the island’s fiscal managers, a group known as the PROMESA board, an entity that Congress created, claims those bonds are worthless.
While investors put down their hard-earned cash to buy the bonds, the board members have claimed in court that, because the debt issuance put the island over its legal debt limit, the debt should be canceled.
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Monday, April 22, 2019
Global Bond Market Bubble’s Ultimate Culmination / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Michael_Pento
Historically speaking, a normal Fed tightening cycles consist of raising the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) by 350-425bps. It is at that point that the yield curve usually inverts--thus, disincentivizing future lending and closing down the credit conduit. At that point the Fed backs off from future rate hikes. Then, about a year later, a stock market meltdown begins; and six months after that a recession ensues. During this current cycle, the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) has raised rates by just 250bps before turning dovish. Therefore, Wall Street takes solace in the view that this time around the Fed stopped in time before it killed the business cycle.
However, that 250bps of hiking is before you factor in the end of Quantitative Easing (QE) and the current Quantitative Tightening Program (QT), which is still an ongoing process and won't end until September. When you factor in the tightening that occurred when the Fed ended QE in October of 2014, which amounted to $85b per month of newly printed money at its peak and added a total of $3.7 trillion to the Fed’s balance sheet, the actual amount of tightening from ending QE is probably close to 300bps. And, the QT from the Fed will end up draining nearly $1 trillion from its balance sheet and reached $40-$50 billion per month at its peak. A reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet of anything close to $1 trillion is completely unprecedented and amounted to a tremendous drain on liquidity. Nobody knows exactly the amount of rate hikes this equates to, but it most likely added another 75bps of monetary tightening.
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Monday, February 26, 2018
Bonds and Related Financial Market Indicators / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Gary_Tanashian
The following is an excerpt from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 488. For NFTRH bonds are not just an asset class ‘throw-in’ but instead are a key indicator set to the entire modern macro. Insofar as it may be time to use them for portfolio balance (I am currently long SHV, SHY, IEI & IEF), so much the better. Many could not wait to buy bonds during US ZIRP global NIRP operations, but today they pay better interest and have a contrarian edge with the entire herd bracing for a bear market.
We claimed appropriately bearish on bonds on December 4th, so you know this is not perma-book talking when we go the other way as yields hit our targets.
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Friday, January 05, 2018
European Bonds Are 2018’s Number One Risk / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : No shortage of stupid things these days:
- Bitcoin
- Litecoin
- Pizzacoin
- Canadian real estate
- Swedish real estate
- Australian real estate
- FANG
- Venture capital
Sunday, October 09, 2016
World Gone Mad: Credit Bubble “Perpetual Preferred” / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: John_Rubino
Towards the end of a credit bubble, ideas that might have seemed crazy in more boring times are not just accepted but embraced by investors desperate to keep the high that comes from effortless bull-market profits.
In the junk bond bubble of the late 1980s, for instance, there was the “PIK preferred,” a kind of stock/bond hybrid that paid its holders in more securities (PIK stood for “payment in kind”). Companies could issue them with zero near-term cash flow consequence while credulous investors bought them for their “high yields.”
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Saturday, September 24, 2016
Global Bonds: Why Our Analyst Says Things Just Got "Monumental" / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: EWI
Our interest rates strategist explains more in this new interview
Peter DeSario, editor of our Interest Rates Pro Service, explains why this was a "monumental" week in the bond markets -- and offers a preview of which markets he's keeping his eye on.
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Tuesday, September 20, 2016
Global Bond Bubble has Finally Reached its Apogee / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Michael_Pento
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren recently rattled markets when he warned that low-interest rates were increasing the temperature of the U.S. economy, which now runs the risk of overheating. That sunny opinion was echoed by several other Federal Reserve officials who are trying to portray an economy that is on a solid footing. And thus, prepare investors and consumers for an imminent rise in rates. But perhaps someone should check the temperatures of those at the Federal Reserve, the idea that this tepid economy is starting to sizzle could not be further from the truth.
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Thursday, September 15, 2016
Unprecedented Global Bond Bubble Threatens Holders of Cash / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: MoneyMetals
As big as previous real estate and stock market bubbles have been, the current global bubble in government debt dwarfs them all. Not only is it far bigger in size and scope (some $60 trillion in sovereign bonds now trade globally); it is also unprecedented in character.
The world has rarely seen a bond bull market that is not only 36 years old, but also shows few signs of ending. And never before in recorded history have interest rates gotten so low across the board.
Thursday, August 18, 2016
4 Reasons Not to Buy Bonds Now / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : I try to be a long-term thinker and filter out all the short-term noise. That’s hard nowadays, because there is so much short-term noise!
Any one of these four things would be big news, especially in the dog days of summer. But all four? It’s crazy out there.
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Saturday, April 02, 2016
Wall Street is Coo-Coo for CoCo Bonds - Learn why these new bonds are such risky instruments / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: EWI
The co-editor of our monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast newsletter tells you about the emergence of the so-called CoCo bonds, one of the hottest new derivative-backed instruments on Wall Street.
Listen as Peter explains what differentiates them from regular bonds -- and why they're so risky to own.
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Monday, February 29, 2016
Irish Bonds Fall as Election Creates Political and Economic Uncertainty / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: GoldCore
Irish bonds fell today and the yield on ten-year Irish bonds rose to 0.908 pc, up from 0.891 pc in early trading this morning after a divisive general election and inconclusive result threw Irish politics into disarray and created considerable political and economic uncertainty.
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Sunday, January 17, 2016
The Bursting of the Bond Bubble Has Begun - Pt 2 / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Graham_Summers
As we wrote earlier this week, bursting of the bond bubble has begun.
The decision by Central Banks to “inflate” the system’s debts away post-2008 has resulted in the misallocation of trillions of Dollars of capital.
The worst offenders were Chinese corporates. China has created the single largest mountain of bad debt in the world. Indeed, things are so out of control in China that 45% of all proceeds from new bond issuance are being used just to pay off interest on old loans.
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Thursday, October 15, 2015
What the 'Junk-Bond Crisis' Means for Muni Bonds / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: DW
Dr. David Eifrig writes: It could happen next week... or next month...
Wednesday, September 30, 2015
Junk Bond Market Imminent Collapse Threatens (Unwelcome) BIG Rate Rises / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Clive_Maund
Everyone is so focused on looking at the Fed and whether or not it decides to raise rates by a puny 0.25%, that they are completely overlooking the fact that it is the market's role to set interest rates, and if the Fed is not up to the job, then the markets will eventually take over and do it in a manner that is likely to involve rises vastly greater than a mere 0.25%, which given the current fragile and extremely unstable debt structure, can be expected to have catastrophic consequences.
Thursday, August 13, 2015
German-US Bond Yield Spread Breaks Out / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Bond yields fell across the board since mid-June, but the more meaningful fact for currency traders remains yield differentials. For EURUSD watchers, the rate of decline in 10-year bund has been slower than its US counterpart, which led to a stabilisation in the German-US spread (not US-German) to the extent of breaking above an important 3 ½ year trendline.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2015
Junk Bonds - The Next Financial Disaster Starts Here / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Casey_Research
By Dan Steinhart
Individual investors take note…
Some of the world’s best money managers are betting on the biggest financial disaster since 2008.
You won’t hear about this from the mainstream media. Networks like NBC or CBS don’t have a clue… just like they didn’t have a clue the US housing market would collapse in 2007.
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