Monday, June 06, 2022
How To Improve Your Business As A Small Manufacturer / Companies / SME
By: Steve_Barker
The manufacturing industry is ever-evolving. This industry has been the first to experiment with technological tools, automated manufacturing units, and techniques to improve its production capabilities. There are several methods small manufacturers can implement to improve their production efficiency and thrive in their niche. Without further ado, let’s examine some of these methods.
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Monday, June 06, 2022
UK Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The following is one of my custom UK housing market indicators that more clearly illustrates the degree of housing market crisis that Britain finds itself in as a ratio between the accumulative change in population since 1970 against the accumulative number of new completed house builds also since 1970 which shows the magnitude of the trend in over crowding of Britain's housing market that given recent mainstream press headlines based on academic studies clearly remain largely blind to the consequences of, because they still are unable to visualise the magnitude of Britain's housing crisis that has WORSENED since Britain voted to LEAVE the EU which should act as a warning to those who contemplate ever holding a second EU referendum, as it implies LEAVE would win by an even bigger margin next time!
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Monday, June 06, 2022
Understanding Profit Potential In Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
An analysis of any profit potential in gold requires an understanding of gold and its fundamentals. The problem is that most folks do not understand gold or its fundamentals.“Most folks” includes investors, traders, speculators, advisors, analysts, marketers, etc.
THERE IS ONLY ONE GOLD FUNDAMENTAL
The single fundamental for gold is that gold is real money. PERIOD. Gold’s value is in its use as money.
Whereas gold is real money, the US dollar and all paper currencies are substitutes for real money, i.e., gold.
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Monday, June 06, 2022
Why Do People Love Playing Live Games? / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Submissions
The online casino industry is quickly developing, and modern games impress with their realism and numerous amazing features. Online gambling is extremely convenient, allowing users not to waste time getting to a certain place and meeting friends for the next game. It is enough to go to the chosen site, select a game, invite a friend, and start the gaming process immediately.
Live dealer games are now on the rise since they fully resemble the atmosphere of a real gaming hall. Moreover, it’s important to note that each modern live casino uk provides many advantages compared to what users could observe only several decades ago. The top benefits imply:
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Saturday, June 04, 2022
UK Housing Market Over Crowding Ratio / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The following is one of my custom UK housing market indicators that more clearly illustrates the degree of housing market crisis that Britain finds itself in as a ratio between the accumulative change in population since 1970 against the accumulative number of new completed house builds also since 1970 which shows the magnitude of the trend in over crowding of Britain's housing market that given recent mainstream press headlines based on academic studies clearly remain largely blind to the consequences of, because they still are unable to visualise the magnitude of Britain's housing crisis that has WORSENED since Britain voted to LEAVE the EU which should act as a warning to those who contemplate ever holding a second EU referendum, as it implies LEAVE would win by an even bigger margin next time!
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Saturday, June 04, 2022
Inflation Mutation - This is not your Grandpa’s Inflation problem / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
The Fed is starting to play catch-up with inflation signals from the bond market as evidenced by the Fed Funds Rate finally being pulled upward by the implications of the rising 3 month T-bill yield, among other more obvious signals like the long since rising 2yr Treasury yield and ongoing inflation headlines we read about every day.
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Saturday, June 04, 2022
White House Inflation Scapegoat / Politics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
As the Biden administration scrambles to try to contain inflation – or at least make a public relations show of it – precious metals investors are wondering how much longer gold and silver prices will remain contained.
Metals markets got a bit of a lift this week through Thursday but have pulled back a bit here today. As of this Friday recording, gold is flat for the week now to trade at $1,860 per ounce. And silver is down 20 cents or 0.9% this week to trade at $22.12 an ounce.
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Saturday, June 04, 2022
Stock Market Rally on Borrowed Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 was indeed building a bull flag, which „must“ now continue with a fresh upleg so that the formation is validated. Odds are that in spite of the tech-led upswing, the rally would continue. All that‘s required for today, is a not too disappointing non-farm payrolls figure, which would (in the market‘s mind) give the Fed some leevay in taking on inflation while not choking off economic growth (however decelerating). Optimal outcome would be a figure somewhat below expectations as that would enable speculation as to how far the Fed would move towards focus on growth (the Brainard view of things) and away from Powell‘s resolute (verbally resolute, to be precise – big difference) inflation fighter pose. Yesterday‘s Yellen admission on getting it wrong, is a preview of more hawkish monetary policies still ahead.
That‘s why I‘ve said that this rally wasn‘t sustainable, but it still has further to go. Treasuries aren‘t relenting in the pressure on the Fed to act, and the central bank would have to catch up. It‘s a question of time when this risk-on reprieve runs its course. Yesterday‘s turn in precious metals and copper is a preview of what such a Fed turn would imemdiately cause – helping the open positions mightily. And I‘m not even talking the sizable open profits in crude oil...
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Friday, June 03, 2022
Is AMAZON a DYING Tech GIANT? / Companies / Amazon
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stocks bear market continues with most AI tech stocks putting in new bear market lows during the past week, with key exceptions being Facebook and AVGO. Whilst Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia were the weakest stocks of the week, though all stocks rallied strongly Friday led by AMD which ended the week up 10% followed by Micron at +6% which are definitely two stocks to aim to accumulate during any further market weakness.
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Friday, June 03, 2022
FREE Japanese Candlesticks Trading Course / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: EWI
Hi reader,
One of the best ways to get an edge in trading is to hand-pick a few select tools for your arsenal.
Japanese Candlesticks are one such tool. In skilled hands, they can really show you the trend and alert you to trend reversals.
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Friday, June 03, 2022
What to Make of the Stock Market’s Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"“For certain, there will be countertrend rallies"
The stock market selloff from March into the May low was comprised of eight straight weeks of decline in the Dow Industrials.
This was historic. The Dow Industrials have been around for 126 years and this was only the second time that the senior index suffered a decline for eight consecutive weeks. The other time was in 1923 -- also March into May.
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Thursday, June 02, 2022
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The below graph shows the UK annual population change against annual net additional dwellings which includes completed new builds.
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Thursday, June 02, 2022
Where Is Gold Price Going From Here? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After briefly reaching highs above $2000, Gold has fallen to $1785 (-14%) following the deep selling in the US major indexes throughout most of April & May 2022.
Interpretation Of The Current Consolidation In Gold
My team and I see the recent lows in Gold as similar to the April/May 2009 consolidation after the Global Financial Crisis. Also similar to the January 2013 consolidation before an extended -34% price decline took place – ending in December 2015.
The primary difference between now and then is that the US Federal Reserve is currently initiating a new round of Quantitative Tightening (QT), raising rates, while battling Inflation. In both the previous examples, the US Federal Reserve was moving aggressively into Quantitative Easing, attempting to aid in the recovery of the US & the global economy.
It seems to me, that the underlying factors driving the price of Gold have drastically changed. All it would take for Gold to break into a new trend, up or down, would be to see some new catalyst or contagion event come to life.
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Thursday, June 02, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Bubble Trouble / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: The_Gold_Report
As month five of this bear market comes to an end, expert Michael Ballanger goes over some bear market stories that left him with battle scars and provides some insight on what to expect in the months ahead.
Month five of the Great 2022-202? Bear Market is almost complete so I thought you all might wish to hear a few “war stories” from past bear markets, some of which I endured while none of which I even vaguely enjoyed. First, I offer the MJB “primer”…
“The key to long-term profits on Wall Street is not making big killings; it’s not getting killed.”
—Daniel Turov
At the bottom of bear markets (or at the start of bull markets), stocks are like moored boats at low tide, resting on the sand desperately in need of the resurgent surf.
As markets turn, it is analogous to the tide roaring in and when it does, it lifts all boats, big and small, and it doesn’t care whether a vessel is leaking or whether it is tight. Warren Buffett coined a phrase that perfectly describes how bear markets expose flawed business models in heavily-pumped companies when he said, “Bear markets are like the tide going out; you soon learn who is swimming without trunks.”
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Thursday, June 02, 2022
Stock Market Hits Stall Speed Before Running / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 could still be building a bull flag on the daily chart, followed by an upswing tomorrow on non-farm payrolls. Who knows what kinds of adjustments would show that the real economy isn‘t decelerating all that badly? Markets might even conclude the contraction bullet would be avoided, and that the Fed won‘t need to go all in against inflation consequences be damned. Wrong, because if you look at Treasuries, the pressure on the Fed to raise (and dramatically so), is on – the dollar is turning up already on the prospect of higher yields. CPI inflation might have (temporarily) peaked, but inflation expectations (as measured by both the bond market and the respective ETF) haven‘t yet.
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Thursday, June 02, 2022
How the NHS Is Forcing Patients to Go Private Due to Consultants with Conflict of Interest / Politics / NHS
By: N_Walayat
Like most religions there is myth and there is reality and so it is with Britain's NHS religion, at the heart of which lies the contracted in consultant's structure who tend to have half a leg in the NHS and half a leg in the private sector resulting in a conflict of interest that acts to funnel patients into the private sector as this example of what to expect at an NHS hospital when one presents themselves for competent treatment that tends to be wholly lacking at expect at the Northern General Hospitals' Orthopedics Fractures and Ankles clinic where even minor operations such as a suspected ruptured Achilles tendon tend to be met with the procedure for kicking the can down the road where consultants tend to IGNORE the patient whilst conversing with the GP practice by letter.
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Wednesday, June 01, 2022
Gold Fakeout Instead of Breakout: Is the Gold Miners’ Crash Coming? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Some analogies in the gold market that may be a hint for investors can be seen right now. If there's a 2008 rerun, what could that mean in the near term?
The precious metals market declined yesterday, and while the move is still small, it’s nice to see that our short positions in juniors are already profitable.
Something quite interesting happened in their price movement at the beginning of yesterday’s session, and that’s what I’d like to start with today.
Wednesday, June 01, 2022
Stock Market Risk-on Run / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
S&P 500 didn‘t waver much even though credit markets did – the risk-on sentiment in stocks goes on even when faced with a dollar upswing (which was sold into). The defensive slant to the S&P 500 gains is evident as tech did better than value – and even energy stocks got hurt. This is short-term concerning for the oil bulls, but it would be premature to close the profitable longs just yet (even if short-term challenges would remain).
Precious metals are acting weak – the daily rise in yields and the dollar hurts. Second half of the year would be the best time for gold and silver as the focus shifts from (temporarily peaking) inflation to the inevitability of backing off tightening (turning accommodative again even) – till then, I‘m looking for lean weeks ahead, and that goes for copper as well. Crude oil remains supported by geopolitics, CRB Index continues trending nicely higher, and the threat of recession isn‘t breaking them.Notably, the market pressure on the Fed to raise, has slowed to a standstill in May – and that would support real assets going forward in the mid-term increasingly more.
Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
Tuesday, May 31, 2022
UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 - Part 1 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article is part 1 of my extensive analysis of the UK housing market that concludes in a detailed 3 year trend forecast.
UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024
Tuesday, May 31, 2022
UK Population Growth Trend Forecast to 2030 Current State / Housing-Market / Demographics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My long standing forecast is for the UK population to grow from 62.2 million as of Mid 2010 to at least 70.5 million by 2030 as excerpted below:
2nd August 2010 - UK Population Growth and Immigration Trend Forecast 2010 to 2030
The assumptions being factored into the UK population growth forecast are for a natural UK population growth rate of births exceeding deaths of 0.33% per year (current 200k), coupled with net average current immigration trend of 240k per year, supplemented with climate change refugees averaging 50k per year from 2015 onwards extrapolates into the following trend forecast over the next 10 years that targets a rise from 62.2 million as of mid 2010 to 67 million by mid 2020, and should the same trend be maintained beyond 2020 then the UK population could rise to above 72 million by mid 2030. However in all probability the country will not experience the post 2020 trend due to several converging factors including political pressures, capacity constraints and the UK's relegation in the economic prosperity leagues. Which implies a tapering off of net immigration in favour of natural growth which implies a lower total of nearer 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated by the below graph.
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