Wednesday, March 09, 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Current State of Drawdowns and Buying Levels / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
50% DRAWDOWNS ARE THE NORM!
The indices tend to smooth out what is actually taking place in the stock market, as we have had a taste of these past few weeks where some stocks have stuck near their highs, even risen in price, the likes of LMT and GPN, whilst others have crashed and burned all whilst the Dow is currently down barely 5.5% off it's all time high! Try telling that to holders of MOST stocks that are typically down by 50% or more off their highs! And now being joined by FAANGBOOK,
Investors HAVE to expect the potential for 50% draw downs, THAT IS WHAT HAPPENS TO MOST STOCKS MOST YEARS!
That is the cost of investing in the stock market, does not matter that the stock is Google, Apple, Amazon, FACEBOOK!, 50% DRAWDOWNS, IF YOU CANNOT DEAL WITH THIS FACT THEN DO NOT INVEST IN THE STOCK MARKET because it is normal! And why I often say just invest and forget and you'll save yourselves a lot of grief staring at the draw downs that WILL HAPPEN REGARDLESS OF STOCK!
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Wednesday, March 09, 2022
Is Russia Ukraine War Negative for the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
Here's what really drives the trends of global stock markets
Let's first state the obvious: war is tragic as it brings death and destruction.
But does war make the stock market go down?
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Wednesday, March 09, 2022
WARNING FREETRADE TO START LENDING YOUR SHARES TO SHORT SELLERS! / Personal_Finance / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Freetrade have just sent a message to customers informing them that from the 1st of June they will start lending their shares to short sellers! This despite customer having to pay a £10 monthly fee for freetrades SIPP! Apparently freetrade will keep all of the income whilst YOU the customer carry ALL of the risk! What a load of crap!
My most recent in depth analysis focused on continuing to capitalise on the downward spiral in stock price in response to first Inflation Panic and now added to by War Panic.
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Wednesday, March 09, 2022
Are We Nearing the Final Days of the US Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
The dishonest fiat Federal Reserve Note “dollar” is slowly dying and will eventually need to be replaced with something more trustworthy.Perhaps it will be presented to Americans as a series of dramatic monetary reforms. Maybe people will be using something else entirely as money.
Either way, the destruction of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency promises to be a defining moment in the nation’s history and this moment may be growing nigh.
Should historians write a timeline of the dollar’s decline and fall, certain events must be included.
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Tuesday, March 08, 2022
Want to know the Truth? Most Stocks SUCK! / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
Today I’m uncovering a “truth” about investing almost nobody understands.This truth explains why most investors struggle to make any real money in the stock market… while a few achieve life-changing gains.
The truth is… most stocks suck.
Forgive me for the crude language.
There’s simply no other word that so accurately sums up my thoughts on the vast majority of stocks:
They suck.
Let me show you what I mean... and how you can turn this truth into an edge that’ll let you beat 99% of investors.
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Tuesday, March 08, 2022
Ukraine’s Defense Shines ‒ and So Does Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Russian forces have made minimal progress against Ukraine in recent days. Unlike the invader, gold rallied very quickly and achieved its long-awaited target - $2000!
Nobody expected the Russian inquisition! Nobody expected such a fierce Ukrainian defense, either. Of course, the situation is still very dramatic. Russian troops continued their offensive and – although the pace slowed down considerably – they managed to make some progress, especially in southern Ukraine, by bolstering air defense and supplies. The invaders are probably preparing for the decisive assault on Kyiv. Where Russian soldiers can’t break the defense, they bomb civilian infrastructure and attack ordinary people, including targeting evacuation corridors, to spread terror. Several Ukrainian cities are besieged and their inhabitants lack basic necessities. The humanitarian crisis intensifies.
Tuesday, March 08, 2022
The Stunning Truth About the FDIC and Your Bank Deposits / Personal_Finance / Banksters
By: EWI
Why you can't rely on the FDIC if another financial crisis hits and your bank goes under
Millions of U.S. bank depositors feel safe in the knowledge that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation will protect their accounts, even if their bank goes under.
Yes, it's true that the FDIC says it will do so. As their website states:
The standard insurance amount is $250,000 per depositor, per insured bank, for each account ownership category.
However, the question is: Does the FDIC have the wherewithal to fulfill its promise?
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Monday, March 07, 2022
M = F - Everything is Waving! Stock Market Forward Guidance / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The Ukrainian people have sleep walked into a nightmare that they did not see coming, neither did much of that which purports to be the mainstream press. However my consistent view since late January (AI Stocks Multi Buying Levels to Capitalise on the Stock Market Panic of 2022) has been that -
a. Russia WILL invade Ukraine.
b. That Putin wants the WHOLE of Ukraine.
c. That Putin is prepared to destroy the WHOLE of Ukraine, flatten every city to achieve victory.
And then we had the risk of Putin using tactical nuclear weapons if the war did not go his way.
And after the war comes the Moldova War and Putin could even target NATO baltic states!
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Monday, March 07, 2022
Sanctions Threat Already Wipes Out Almost all Russian Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Crude Oil Climbs High. Is It Enough to Enjoy a Better View?
The threat of sanctions caused a stir in the markets: WTI spiked above $130 and Brent is nearing the $140 mark. Where is crude oil going next?
A possible Western embargo on Russian oil caused oil prices to soar again on Monday, as stock markets feared persistent inflation and a consequent economic slowdown.
On the US dollar side, the continued rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, as it is now approaching the three-figure mark ($100), even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil, other petroleum products, or any other commodities in general. What we rather witness here is the greenback’s safe haven effect attracting investors, much like gold would tend to act in a “store of value” role.
Monday, March 07, 2022
Stock Market Peculiar Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 recovered most of the intraday downside, and in spite of value driving the upswing, there is something odd about it. Tech barely moved higher during the day, and the heavyweights continue being beaten similarly to biotech compared to the rest of healthcare. The key oddity though was in the risk-off posture in bonds, and the Treasuries upswing that Nasdaq failed to get inspired with.
If TLT has a message to drive home after the latest Powell pronouncements, it‘s that the odds of a 50bp rate hike in Mar (virtual certainty less than two weeks ago, went down considerably) – it‘s almost a coin toss now, and as the FOMC time approaches, the Fed would probably grow more cautious (read dovish and not hawkish) in its assessments, no matter the commodities appreciation or supply chains status. Yes, neither of these, nor inflation is going away before the year‘s end – they are here to stay for a long time to come.
Looking at the events of late, I have to dial back the stock market outlook when it comes to the degree of appreciation till 2022 is over – I wouldn‘t be surprised to see the S&P 500 to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open. Yes, not even the better 2H 2022 prospects would erase the preceding setback.
Monday, March 07, 2022
A Recession Unlike Any Other / Economics / Recession 2022
By: Michael_Pento
The U.S. economy is already deteriorating due to the humongous fiscal and monetary cliffs. These cliffs are now being compounded by the war in Eastern Europe and near record-high inflation. And, the Fed's "PUT" is much lower and smaller in size than Wall Street believes.The war in Ukraine will exacerbate the negative supply shocks that are already in place due to COVID-19. Worsening bottlenecks will combine with rising inflation to produce a contraction in global growth. Russia produces 12% of the world's oil supply and exports 18% of the world's wheat consumption. Ukraine accounts for 25% of global wheat production. Sanctions and war will serve to slow the economy further and send prices for these vital commodities even higher.
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Monday, March 07, 2022
The Tragedy of Ukraine’s Abyss - Three Decades of Misguided Geopolitics / Politics / Ukraine War
By: Dan_Steinbock
The Russia-Ukraine war was not warranted. Ukrainians despair for peace. Russia needs security. China offers development. But Blackwater, US, NATO and the far-right Ukrainian paramilitaries seek something very different.
In his TV address of February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin denounced three decades of NATO expansion and broken pledges to Russia. Moscow did not intend to occupy Ukraine but wanted to “demilitarize and de-nazify" the country. As bombs exploded in several Ukrainian cities, Putin’s speech was discounted in the West, even as Facebook reversed its ban on users praising the Azov Battalion, a Ukrainian neo-Nazi white supremacist military unit.
In reality, Putin's address was not a rogue autocrat’s conspiracy fantasy.
Sunday, March 06, 2022
"Shooting Stars" of the Stock Market: "Don’t Be Fooled by This" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"A funny thing happened on the way to the revolution"
A meme stock has been defined as “the shares of a company that have gained a cult-like following online and through social media platforms.”
This “following” is largely comprised of novice investors who hope to make a quick profit. You may remember two well-publicized examples of meme stocks back in 2021: Gamestop and AMC Entertainment. There have been others.
Well, Robinhood Markets has been described as “the brokerage behind the meme stock revolution.”
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Sunday, March 06, 2022
Fed’s Tightening Cycle: Bullish or Bearish for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
This month, the Fed is expected to hike interest rates. Contrary to popular belief, the tightening doesn't have to be adverse for gold. What does history show?March 2022 – the Fed is supposed to end its quantitative easing and hike the federal funds rate for the first time during recovery from a pandemic crisis . After the liftoff, the Fed will probably also start reducing the size of its mammoth balance sheet and raise interest rates a few more times. Thus, the tightening of monetary policy is slowly becoming a reality. The golden question is: how will the yellow metal behave under these conditions?
Let’s look into the past. The last tightening cycle of 2015-2019 was rather positive for gold prices. The yellow metal rallied in this period from $1,068 to $1,320 (I refer here to monthly averages), gaining about 24%, as the chart below shows.
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Sunday, March 06, 2022
S&P 500 At Tipping Point To Start A Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Is a bear market on the way? My research suggests the downward sloping trend line (LIGHT ORANGE in the Daily/Weekly SPY chart below) may continue to act as solid resistance – possibly prompting a further breakdown in the markets for US major indexes.
As we’ve seen recently, news and other unexpected events prompt very large price volatility events in the US major indexes. For example, the VIX recently rose above 30 again, which shows volatility levels are currently 3x higher than normal levels.
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Friday, March 04, 2022
Stock Market Calm In the Eye of the Inflation Storm / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A quick recap on the state of play (saving time by using existing charts) in terms of my trend expectations as of September 2021 for the Dow to correct form early January to at least Mid February, which my CI18 Switch of 5th Dec deepened somewhat.
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Friday, March 04, 2022
Gold Miners – Biggest Losers? That’s What Oil Says / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
After the war-driven gold rally, oil is starting to outperform. History between these two has already shown that someone may suffer. Many suggest: gold miners.
The precious metals corrected some of their gains yesterday, but overall, not much changed in them. However, quite a lot happened in crude oil, and in today’s analysis we’ll focus on what it implies for the precious metals market and, in particular – for mining stocks.
Friday, March 04, 2022
The Put / Call Ratio – A Technique Used To Gauge Stock Market Extremes / InvestorEducation / Technical Analysis
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Perhaps you’ve heard of the “Put / Call Ratio” (PCR) and been unsure of exactly what it is or when and how to use it.
First, a quick review of what Calls and Puts are. Calls are option contracts that increase in value from a RISE in the price of the underlying stock or index. Puts are option contracts that increase in value from a DROP in the price of the underlying stock or index.
Let’s jump in and see what’s “under the hood” and how we might use that to better inform our decision-making as traders and investors.
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Thursday, March 03, 2022
America’s Trade Deficit: An Enormous Concern / Economics / US Economy
By: Antonius_Aquinas
Another milestone (or more accurately millstone) was recently passed by the U.S. economy as the January trade deficit surged to an all-time record high of $107.6 billion, up some $26 billion from December’s $80.7 billion imbalance.*
Like the gigantic federal budget deficit, the trade imbalance is no longer talked about by the financial press. There has been little criticism of President Biden on either matter nor are Administration officials questioned about how things can be reversed. In fact, some commentators bizarrely contend that trade deficits show how robust an economy actually is!
The trade deficit was supposed to be alleviated by former President Trump who vowed throughout the 2016 campaign that he would rectify the situation and repeatedly ridiculed U.S. trade negotiators for their lack of financial acumen. He touted that his “friendship” with world leaders, most notably Chinese President Xi Jinping, would result in favorable trade deals for the country.
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Thursday, March 03, 2022
Nuclear World War 3 Begins in Ukraine, China to Blitzkrieg Taiwan - The END! / Politics / Ukraine War
By: N_Walayat
The opening shots to World War 3 have been fired in Ukraine, a war that Ukraine was destined to lose form the outset regardless of the ramblings of clueless journalists many of whom were completely blind to what Putin was about to implement, just as most remain blind to what comes next, China;s blitzkrieg 'lightening war' on Taiwan, an aircraft and missile barrage round the clock shock and awe to soften Taiwan ahead of an amphibious landing, all timed to take all by surprise so that the US never has the chance to mobile forces to come to Taiwan's defence. That's what's coming next. With Putin after digesting Ukraine eyeing his next target which is likely to be Ukraine bordering Moldova that will further entrench THE PATH TO A NUCLEAR WORLD WAR 3! THE END!
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