Tuesday, October 04, 2016

The End of US Dollar Dominance? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Axel_Merk

The end of U.S. dollar dominance may be unfolding in front of our eyes. No, we don't think China's ascent is the key threat; instead, key to understanding the U.S. dollar may be to understand the money market fund you might hold. Let me explain what's unfolding in front of our eyes, and what it might mean for the U.S. dollar and global markets.

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Could a S&P500 Stock Market Flash Crash be Round the Corner? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: John_Mesh

There has been general speculation among the trading community recently about the possibiity of a flash crash of the types in 1988. In our morning meeting, we looked at some triggers which can potentially cause a major correction. We will look at if there is any real posibility. As many of you know, we do not like to just talk some nonsense about gold and Silver being precious metals and S&P500 as worthless papers and hence S&P 500 should be trading at under 10 and gold to be at 10,000. That kind of talk we leave to the uninformed punters of the kind we find at various bearish sites. MESH framework is a statistical tool which analyses various trading instruments for trading opportunities. Here we will look at the posibility of a major risk aversion this month.

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

An Offset Mortgage Could be a Saviour for Savers / Housing-Market / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

Borrowers with a separate mortgage and savings account are currently faced with rock-bottom savings rates, meaning they get little return for stashing their cash. By combining the two products into an offset mortgage, borrowers will not only be able to reduce the size of their mortgage, but save thousands of pounds in mortgage interest. They could be particularly beneficial at present, as research from Moneyfacts.co.uk shows that the average offset fixed rate has fallen further.

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

FTSE BrExit Stock Market Panic Crash Resolves towards New All Time Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Remember how BrExit was supposed to trigger a stock market crash, collapse, bear market, with the mainstream press's panic reporting Brexit morning (June 24th) following the FTSE's early morning 5% mark down in the wake of the UK voting to LEAVE the EU.

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Donald Trump Presidency Reality Show, Path to US Election Win / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst today the battle rages for the US Presidency, ultimately through shear stubbornness the character of Donald Trump appears destined to be victorious which would herald in 4 years of the Trump Presidency reality show, one of a series of sophisticated CGI victories as America takes back control, builds the 'Trump Wall' and of course defeats ISIS whilst slaying the Democratic horde.

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Internet Censorship as UN Intervenes into American Society / Politics / Internet

By: BATR

By now you have heard that the control of ICANN has been ceded to the globalists. The Wall Street Journal acknowledges that An Internet Giveaway to the U.N. is the result of this transfer. A last ditch attempt to forestall this treachery was dashed by the Court rejects Arizona lawsuit suit over US control of internet group. This ruling comes as no surprise. The pattern of systematic international integration is the hallmark of efforts to stamp out national sovereignty and independent countries. The United Nations from the very beginning of its inception has been a fraud of incalculable proportions and a nemesis on humanity.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Get Free Commodity Market Forecasts! / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

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Monday, October 03, 2016

Gold Price Reversal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Bob_Loukas

The Gold market continues to be lethargic.  Two weeks ago, negative rumblings about Deutsche Bank pushed Gold higher out of the Half Cycle Low.  But the move quickly stalled on a gold price reversal, ensuring that the current Daily Cycle (DC) would remain Left Translated.

Gold’s current sluggishness is not unexpected, however.  18 weeks into any Investor Cycle should see sellers largely controlling the action, and I’d expect that to be the case with Gold until it finds an Investor Cycle Low (ICL).

Monday, October 03, 2016

An Interest Rate Hike Would Be Ugly for US Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : I’ve taken bond math classes out the wazoo. The best of them was in the summer of 2001 at Lehman Brothers. Lehman Brothers wasn’t going to teach a bad bond math class, not at the firm that became synonymous with bond trading itself. I was ready to start whipping ‘em around. Pity I ended up in stocks.

Now, the tables have been turned, and I am the old, wizened professor, dropping some knowledge on the younger generation. I occasionally teach finance to MBA students, and there are a couple of chapters on bonds where the students have to get their calculators out.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Deutsche Bank #1 Systemic Risk at $100 Billion (BNP Paribas 2nd, Societe Generale 3rd) / Companies / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Mike_Shedlock

Inquiring minds may be interested in a cornucopia of relevant numbers on Deutsche Bank including market cap, leverage, capitalization, deposits, liquidity, derivatives multiple ways, and systemic risk.

Systemic risk numbers are from Nobel Laureate Robert Engle.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Central Banks’ Bank Warns That China Could Cause Global Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: John_Mauldin

I’ve been saying for the past couple of years that the next recession in the US will probably be triggered by an external macro event or cascade of events, coming out of Europe or China.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the London Telegraph sharpens the focus on China. He writes about the recently released quarterly report of the Bank for International Settlements (“the central banks’ bank”). The report repeats Michael Pettis's warning that China faces growing risk of a major debt and banking crisis.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Out-of-Touch Fed Is Hurting the Average American / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : For the world’s top central banks, “the blind leading the blind” isn’t just a proverb. It’s reality.

A European Central Bank official recently said the ECB wants our Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in December. Why is that? In their twisted minds, it will confirm that years of monetary insanity actually worked.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Sterling Gold Rises 1.3% as Sterling Slumps On ‘Hard Brexit’ Concerns, Up 36% YTD / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

Sterling gold rose 1.3% today as sterling slumped again after the UK set a March deadline to start their ‘Brexit divorce’ proceedings from the European Union and on deepening nervousness regarding a ‘Hard Brexit’.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Stock Market Closer To All-Time High, Will Uptrend Continue / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Monday, October 03, 2016

Strongly Bullish US Equity Markets Will Drive Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets

By: John_Mesh

Only one of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted a week-over-week advance, down from eight up the previous week. The S&P 500 was the sole winner with a fractional 0.17% gain. India's SENSEX was the biggest loser at -2.80%. The -1.15% average of the eight contrasts sharply with the 1.92% average for the previous week. The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. We've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Commodities, Forex and Stock Market Trend Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Ken_Ticehurst

We continue to forecast a drop in the commodities complex over the next few months with the possibility of some important lows next year. WTI is still putting in a top, the dead cat bounce that has lasted throughout this year is running out of steam and we should see the push for lower lows over the next couple of months and in to 2017.

Monday, October 03, 2016

As Predicted, Deutsche Bank Is Failing, ATMs Go Dark on Jubilee End Day / Companies / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Jeff_Berwick

On Friday, Deutsche Bank’s stock (DB:NYSE) rose 14% on rumors that it had negotiated a settlement with the US Department of Justice’s demand for $15 billion (which is the entire market capitalization of Deutsche Bank) down to $5.6 billion (which would still decimate Deutsche Bank).

Well, it turns out that rumor was completely unsubstantiated.

There is no settlement. And it’s just amazing that the US Dept. of Justice, knowing that Deutsche Bank’s failure would rip the heart out of the European banking industry, is pushing ahead with their demands anyway.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Stock Market Correction to Worsen? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is up but weakening.  Potential final phase of bull market.

SPX Intermediate trend:  The uptrend from 1810 continues, but it has entered a corrective phase which could extend into November.

 Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Sunday, October 02, 2016

Deutsche Bank - Signs of Stock Market Panic! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Gordon_T_Long

John Rubino and Gordon T Long discuss the unfolding mayhem in the European banking sector and specifically what is behind the panic selling in Deutsche Bank stock.

Sunday, October 02, 2016

Donald Trump's HUGE $916m Tax Loss Equivalent to $300,000 Trillion! / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Donald Trump often bangs on about how much debt the US has accrued to date and how is going to fix it. Yes, the government debt truly has mushroomed from $1 trillion in 1980 to nearly $20 trillion today. However, the New York times has given everyone a glimpse into Donald Trumps own personal financial affairs as the NYT has managed to get hold of Trumps 1995 tax return which shows a loss of $916 million for a single year! The NYT concludes that this effectively converts into Donald Trump not having paid any tax for 18 years. And this is just for one year, we can only imagine what any one of the Donald's other tax returns would show up in terms of paying zero tax.