Friday, September 30, 2016
After the Debate, the Deluge? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
Dear Debate-Watchers,
“I guess he is a buffoon after all. Too bad.”
Those words were written by a dear friend and, until the lights went out on the first presidential debate, the most ardent of Trump supporters.
For the debate, a group of us had gathered at the Social Club at La Estancia de Cafayate here in the Argentine outback.
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Friday, September 30, 2016
Has Dow Theory Lost its Relevance: Stock Market Ignored it and Rallied to New Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
"A stop sign is a gift for you to learn that moving in the same direction won't take you any place new." ~ Rex Steven Sikes
The transports topped out in November of 2014, and according to the Dow theory this is a big negative; the Dow industrials should have followed suit. Instead, the Dow soared higher paying no heed to this theory proving to a large degree that this theory has lost its value. After all, it is a theory and the definition of a theory is "a supposition or a system of ideas intended to explain something, especially one based on general principles independent of the thing to be explained."
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Friday, September 30, 2016
Deutsche Bank Hangs By A Thread On Eve Of Jubilee / Companies / Financial Crisis 2016
Nearly a year ago to the day, on September 28th, we wrote “Will Deutsche Bank Be This Cycle’s Lehman Brothers?”
In it we asked, “In 2008, the financial crisis was set-off by the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Could this year’s crisis be caused by a collapse of Deutsche Bank?”
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Friday, September 30, 2016
Stock Market Nasty Pullback Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The stock market indices had a rough, volatile session and closed very weak. The day started out with some back and forth action, they pulled back midmorning, and was successful. They then rallied back to resistance, and then they plunged, acerbated by news that Emergent BioSolutions, Inc. (EBS) was having problems with withdrawals. Panic set in to take it to minus 15.44, and then they had a sharp rally acerbated to the upside when it was announced that QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) may be acquiring NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI). The semi-conductors took off and took the market with it. Biotech’s suffered all day, though, and in the afternoon the indices did pull back and closed near support.
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Friday, September 30, 2016
Green Light For Stock Markets In 2017 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
We believe the stock market correction is running its course. The seasonally weak month of September has only produced one significant down day. Our expectation was that the retracement would take stocks between 5% and 10% lower, as explained in ALL Markets Going Down Except The US Dollar.
However, it seems that the stock market is quite resilient. Two weeks after that strong down days, we have not seen any meaningful sign of a continuation of that retracement. That does bode well for an end of year rally, and, even more important, continued strength in the stock market into 2017.
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Friday, September 30, 2016
Donald Trump Failing to Recover After 1st Debate Hillary Shimmy Loss - Betfair Betting Market / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
The betting markets tend to be better short-term gauge for reactions to political events such as the debates. In which respect Donald Trump is showing NO signs of recovering from Monday's debate loss, instead the Betfair market odds have continued to widen from 2.88 (Trump) / 1.57 Hillary just prior to the start of the debate at 2am BST, which following the debate at 4am had widened to 3.35 (Trump) / 1.44 Hillary) and now 3 full days later the betfair market price is 3.45 (Trump) / 1.45 Hillary. Thus Hillary is continuing to capitalise on Trumps debate loss by widening her lead further, which means whatever post debate strategy Trumps team is deploying is just not working!
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Thursday, September 29, 2016
HSBC’s Chief of Technical Analysis Just Warned of a Potential 1987-Type Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
The head of HSBC’s Technical Analysis group just issued a major warning.
Unless the markets can take out its September highs, we could very well see a repeated of the 1987 Crash.
Murray Gunn is head of technical analysis for HSBC. In a recent client note, he pointed out the Head and Shoulders top pattern that presaged the 1987 Crash.
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Thursday, September 29, 2016
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE: Ending With a Bang, Not a Whimper / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, co-founders of Seabridge Gold, discuss how extreme monetary policy does not stimulate growth.
As we have predicted for some time, central bankers are doubling down on the madness that has failed to achieve economic lift-off. It is no surprise to us that easy money has not stimulated growth. There was never any reason why it should. It reminds us of trying to force hay into the wrong end of an elephant.
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Gold vs. Paper: The Only Debate That Matters / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Mining Stocks’ Rally Despite Gold’s Decline / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
Quite a few rallies in the recent months were preceded by the mining stocks’ outperformance relative to gold and we just saw the same kind of phenomenon on Wednesday – GDX rallied while gold declined. Is the bottom in?
Let’s take a look at the miners’ chart for details - other charts don’t feature important changes from what we described previously so mining stocks are the part of the PM sector that we’ll focus on in today’s free article (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):
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Thursday, September 29, 2016
BEA Revises Q2 2016 US GDP Growth Upward to 1.42% / Economics / US Economy
In their third and final estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the growth rate was +1.42%, up +0.33% from their previous estimate and up +0.59% from the prior quarter. Most of the improvement in the headline number came from a +0.24% upward revision in commercial fixed investment. None of the other revisions were statistically significant.
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Thursday, September 29, 2016
What a Trump Win Means for The Stock Markets? Disaster or Buying Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
"As a man handles his troubles during the day, so he goes to bed at night a General, Captain, or Private." ~ Edgar Watson Howe
We would like to state that this article is not about politics but about the effect these two polarising individuals will have on the market. Before the debate, the outlook was somewhat favourable towards the Donald and immediately the markets reacted and started trending lower. Regardless of what you think of Trump, he is having the same effect as Brexit had on the markets but in smaller doses. If he should win the election, then the reaction will be several magnitudes larger. When the poll results came in stating that Hillary fared better in the 1st debates the markets responded positively and recouped their losses; this reinforces our argument of several years that says substantial pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities.
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Thursday, September 29, 2016
SPX is at the 80% retracement. Will it turn here? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Good Morning,
Thus far the SPX has made an 80% retracement. Normally this would be a dubious distinction, since the odds grow of making a new high beyond the 78.6% retracement. However, this seems to be standard operating procedure for this top, so we’ll have to monitor it as it develops. Being the end of the quarter doesn’t help the bearish cause, but a lot of big name stocks are not making new highs, which is a first.
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Thursday, September 29, 2016
Stocks Extend Their Short-Term Gains, But Will They Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Thursday, September 29, 2016
BlackStone Group Says The Stock Market Is The Most Treacherous They Have Seen / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
There has rarely ever been another time like this.
Not since 1999 and not since 1929 before that, have so many billionaires, central banksters, financial elites and fund managers, warned that we are on the verge of a catastrophic bust.
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Thursday, September 29, 2016
Could the OPEC deal set stage for the Next Stock Market Risk Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
We have been advising our clients about the market internals and fundamentals to be mildly bullish. Against popular opinion we have stuck to our guns that market will rally before the next big correction. The news of an OPEC deal could be the trigger if true. Reuters and other media outlets reported from Algeria on Thursday that OPEC members had agreed to cut oil output for the first time since 2008. Reuters reported OPEC members would limit production to a range of 32.5 million to 33 million barrels per day, down slightly on August's output of 33.2 million barrels a day, but there were few details availabe on the deal. Oil prices surged about 5 percent in response, with West Texas Intermediate trading at $46.75 per barrel. Without a deal, analysts had said oil could plunge to $40 or lower. ItThe OPEC deal to cut oil production may provide a short-term support for prices, but chances are it won't change the supply outlook much, Goldman Sachs said. Goldman said in a note to investors that it was sticking with its forecasts for WTI at $43 a barrel for the end of this year and $53 a barrel in 2017. The investment bank had cut its year-end forecast this week from $50 a barrel.
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Thursday, September 29, 2016
Why Trump Lost, Hillary Won the 1st U.S. Presidential Debate / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
The pollsters, political pundits and bookies all conclude that Donald Trump lost the 1st presidential debate. Apparently it was not even close, and personally having watched the debate and waiting for Hillary to make her fatal cough which never happened, I too can vouch that those who watched the debate and were not a vested interest would conclude that Hillary clearly won as the following video illustrates why:
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Thursday, September 29, 2016
OPEC Announcement Triggers Late Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The stock market indices had a turn-around Wednesday as the markets exploded. However, in the morning, they came down hard, held secondary support, and then rallied smartly, accelerating, in particular, when OPEC made the announcement that they may have come to an agreement on production cuts. At that point, the Nasdaq 100 rallied from 48.50 to 48.78, and the S&P 500 rallied from 21.52 to 21.72, both closing near the highs for the day.
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Thursday, September 29, 2016
Is a Dollar Crash Imminent After the Senate Overrides Obama Veto on Saudi 9/11 Bill? / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
President Obama just had his first veto override of his entire presidency today, as the Senate and House both voted to override his veto of the 9/11 victims bill, Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA). As of this moment, the Sept 11 bill is now law.
Intense lobbying by both the Obama Administration and the Saudi government didn’t amount to much in the end, with strong public support leading to a 97-1 veto override vote today. The long defector from the unanimous vote back in May was Sen. Harry Reid (D – NV). The House easily cleared the two-thirds threshold with a 348-77 vote.
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Thursday, September 29, 2016
2017: Gold and Silver's Year of "Public Recognition" / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
In all probability, December 2015 marked the bottom of the cyclical gold and silver bear market – a bear cycle that had been in play since silver topped in May 2011 and gold in September of the same year.
During the fourth quarter 2015, share price declines of the precious metals mining companies tapered off once the last of the weak hands gave up and sold their positions to stronger, forward-looking investors.
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