Thursday, October 06, 2016
China Might Be Deutsche Bank’s Last Hope / Companies / Credit Crisis 2016
By: John_Mauldin
By Olivier Garret: The pressure has been mounting on Deutsche Bank (DB), with the German government spurning the possibility of a bailout and the stock slumping. DB recently hit a record low.The German titan has been trying to sell assets to raise money to pay the US Department of Justice its record US$14 billion fine. And there have been rumors that Berlin is applying pressure to get the huge fine reduced.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
The West Is Playing a Zero-Sum Game with ISIS / Politics / ISIS Islamic State
By: John_Mauldin
ISIS and radical Islamic terrorism are a threat to the Western world. And so far, we have not really developed any serious defense mechanisms to deal with it. Rather, we are mostly just reacting to seemingly random events.
My friend Dr. Woody Brock is one of the most brilliant game theory specialists that I know. He regularly applies game theory to economics and investing. Here, he analyzes the conflict between the West and ISIS. He says that because of our very values, we end up playing the “game” in a way that leads us to continual frustration.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Gold Price to Rally $80 into October 14th? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
I admit I missed the GDX move down to 22.93 today, but at the same time it has presented itself with a great opportunity. The chart below is predicting GDX 29.84 by October 14. I am now leveraged, extremely leveraged with options for a strong rally ahead in gold and GDX.
A lot of negative bias now in the precious metals complex has me thinking the other way: and that is a massive short covering rally ahead. The e-wave look and cycles suggest the same. The "nonfarm payrolls report" on Friday could be (likely) the catalyst.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Will the Stocks Bull Market Remain Intact in 2017? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Clif_Droke
The question confronting investors right now is whether the lateral trading range in the major indices represents consolidation of the long-term uptrend, which precedes an eventual upside breakout from the range? Or does it represent distribution (i.e. selling) which precedes an eventual breakdown of the trend?
Bulls and bears have assembled evidence to support their respective take on this conundrum, but the most basic and useful evidence suggests the first outcome, namely an eventual upside resolution. Let’s examine the evidence in support of this conclusion.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Projecting The Consolidation in Precious Metals Mining Stock Indices / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Rambus_Chartology
Tonight I would like to start off the Wednesday Report by looking at our current bull market in the HUI. I’m going to try and show you how our current setup is what one would expect in a bull market.
A stock or stock market does one of three things. First, it’s building out a reversal pattern that will reverse the current trend. Second, it’s building out a consolidation pattern that is consolidating the current trend. Third, the price action is impulsing after breaking out of either a reversal pattern or consolidation pattern. This is how markets works.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Stock Market Positive Session with Good Technicals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices had another wild session, first gapping up and running to retest the highs, unable to get there, and by midday hit their peak on the Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 did make a higher high in the afternoon, unconfirmed by the Nasdaq 100. That caused a negative divergence, which sold them off in the last hour.
Net on the day, the Dow was up 112.58 at 18,281.03, 34 points off its high. The S&P 500 was up 9.24 at 2159.73, 4 points off its high. The Nasdaq 100 was up 18.28 at 4877.75, 14 points off its high.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Gold for When Markets Go Bump in the Night / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“Gold has worked down from Alexander’s time. . .When something holds good for two thousand years, I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory.” – Bernard Baruch
We should not be surprised that the long-standing troubles at Deutsche Bank would appear to be coming to a head now. For global financial centers, October is often the cruellest month – a time when stock markets and whole economies have been known to go bump in the night. The Panic of 1907, the Crash of ’29, Black Monday 1987, the Friday the 13th crash 1989, the Asia Crisis of 1997, the downturn of 2002 and the launch to bear market in 2007 – all took place in the month of October.
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Wednesday, October 05, 2016
TNX, USD and SPX Meet their Respective Turning Points / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Bond yields spiked this morning in a retracement of the decline from the September 13 high in an 89.5% retracement to the 2-hour Cycle Top.
ZeroHedge comments, “"Soft" survey data from ISM appears to have trumped "hard" data from construction spending and factory orders, juicing expectations for a rate-hike in November to around 30% - the highest since The Fed began its so-called normalization cycle. The USD Index and bond yields are jumping on the news, stocks are unclear, and silver and gold are slipping further.
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Wednesday, October 05, 2016
Gold Buying ‘Opportunity’ After Surprise 3.4% Drop / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
“Gold rebounded after the biggest drop in more than a year as investors reminded themselves of a world that’s beset by risk, from the prospect of further currency weakness to the final stretch of the U.S. presidential election,” according to Bloomberg today.
Wednesday, October 05, 2016
Stock Market Season of Falling Prices and Percent Index Proves It! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Chris_Vermeulen
It’s a knows fact that Sept and October are typically weak times for US stocks. Going back 37 years shows us the tendency for investors to sell and rebalance their portfolios to try and perform better during the final quarter.
But that’s not really the point of this article. The chart below shows a comparison between the SP500 bullish percent index and the SP500 index.
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Wednesday, October 05, 2016
Stock Market Indices Has Rough Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices had a rough session. After a gap up and then a move up to resistance, the indices were unable to get much further than that. They had a selloff, a very sharp snapback, but again couldn’t get through the highs, and then started to decline in a distinct down-channel all day. Only in the last hour did they snap back off the lows, but S&P 500 violated key support by a couple points, before the rally. We’ll just have to see whether they were able to hold the fort right here, or going to make lower lows.
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Wednesday, October 05, 2016
The Hyperinflationary Death Watch / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense – perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire – that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each implies and requires the other. – Alan Greenspan
Every hyperinflation is unique. No one wants the chaos it will bring. We are not rooting for it. Monetary crisis is always part and parcel or a extension of the inevitable cycles of history.
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Wednesday, October 05, 2016
Gold Price Plunges on Rate-Hike Fears / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
Gold fell below $1,300 today for the first time since the Brexit vote in June, as the dollar index rose to a two-month high.
Gold fell below $1,300 today for the first time since the Brexit vote in June, as the dollar index rose to a two-month high. At press time, gold was down $42, at $1,270.
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Wednesday, October 05, 2016
USD, Gold and USB are testing their Outer Limits / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
USD came within a hair’s breadth of the upper Broadening Wedge trendline at 96.50 this morning, but now is beginning to sell off after reaching 96.39. Considering the corrective nature of the move, I did not expect the trendline to be broken. Nonetheless, I had monitored it for any unexpected outcome. A decline today beneath 95.26 may create a Bearish Engulfing Candle, which is a strong reversal pattern.
The moves being made here may have a pronounced effect on various markets, which we will discuss further down the page. The main effect of a declining USD may be the withdrawal of foreign investors from risk markets.
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Wednesday, October 05, 2016
Mike Pence Beats Tim Kaine to Win VP Debate Triggering Trump Bounce / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Donald Trump has been having a disastrous time following loss of the 1st Presidential debate to Hillary Clinton and then leak of his 1995 tax return as illustrated by the betting market. However, now there is sliver of hope for Trump's campaign as his running mate, Mike Pence beat Tim Kaine in the Vice Presidents debate as the post debate odds have marginally shifted in Trumps favour.
Trump could learn a lesson or two from Pence on how to win debates, which apparently is NOT by going on the defensive as Trump repeatedly did to salvos from Hillary but by just completely ignoring the attacks and instead go on the attack or try to win the audience by telling them what they wanted to hear. Though of course "Mr Know it All" Trump listens to NO ONE!
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Tuesday, October 04, 2016
Key Breakdowns after Silver’s Final Reversal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The end of the previous week was rich in signals as gold, silver and mining stocks all reversed along with the USD Index. Gold closed the week below the rising support line and the implications should not be ignored even by those who usually focus on fundamentals alone.
Why? Because in the short- and medium term, the important technical developments will shape the price – not the fundamentals. Why should one care? In early 2008 silver was priced above $20 and in late 2008 it was priced below $10, even though the fundamental outlook didn’t change. Similar price swings can make a lot of money for those who pay close attention to what’s going on – but knowing about positive fundamentals is not enough.
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Tuesday, October 04, 2016
Stock Market September 30- October 3 High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Ed_Carlson
The Hybrid Lindsay model points to a high early this week (if not last Friday). While there are other highs and lows scheduled, the next important low is due late this month and getting there should be quite a “ride” if the Three Peaks/Domed House pattern is correct.
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Tuesday, October 04, 2016
Assessing the Short-Term Outlook for Gold and Silver and the Miners / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger assesses the gold-silver ratio and its ramifications for the market.
I want to go on the record and state categorically that, in my opinion, technical analysis is of limited value when trying to predict the short-term movements of precious metals. However, there are millions of traders and investors out there who believe that it does work despite interventions, manipulations, and the ability of the bullion banks to fabricate a surrogate for actual physical gold by way of paper futures. In light of that, the short-term technical set-ups for gold and silver and the miners are all different in that after Friday's month-end bombardment, which originated in the London options market, that formidable uptrend line that began in December 2015 has finally been vanquished.
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Tuesday, October 04, 2016
WARNING: the Bond Markets Are Signaling Something MASSIVE is Coming / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2016
By: Graham_Summers
To understand the financial markets, you need to understand the hierarchy of asset classes.
That hierarchy is as follows:
Globally, the stock market is about $69 trillion in size, trading about $191 billion in shares per day.
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Tuesday, October 04, 2016
NIRP is the Fuel that Will Rocket Gold Price to $5,000 or Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Graham_Summers
For decades, the primary argument by Warren Buffett and other financial elites for not owning gold was that “gold doesn’t pay you anything.”
Once the ECB took interest rates to NIRP in 2014, this argument became null and void. In a world in which bonds are charging you to hold them, gold with its ZERO yield has become attractive as an investment.
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