Friday, November 20, 2015

Syrian Refugees and the Republicans’ Rhetoric of Hate and Fear / Politics / US Politics

By: Walter_Brasch

Fear, laced with paranoia, is driving the American response against allowing Syrian refugees into the United States.

President Obama has said he would accept 10,000 refugees, all of them subjected to intense scrutiny before being admitted to the country. France, with a population about one-fifth that of the United States, despite the worst attack on its soil since World War II, will accept 30,000 refugees.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Why Isn’t This Incredibly Bearish Bond Market Development Making the News? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Casey_Research

By E.B. Tucker

Editor’s Note: This is one of the most important essays you’ll read all year. In this special edition of the Casey Daily Dispatch, E.B. Tucker shares an urgent warning you’re unlikely to hear anywhere else.

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Thursday, November 19, 2015

SPX Appears to have Stopped its Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX peaked beneath formation resistance at 2087.59 this morning. We may need an alternate structure should it go higher. At the moment, the first level to watch is Short-term support at 2077.40. A decline beneath this puts SPX back on an aggressive sell if you have moved some money to cash. The 200-day Moving Average is at 2077.40, beneath which SPX may be on a confirmed sell signal.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Japans Sinking Economy - Is Anybody Okay Out There? / Economics / Japan Economy

By: John_Rubino

In normal times, the world’s major economies are a mixed bag. Some are up, some are down, some are placid, some are in crisis. It’s only at the boom/bust extremes that everyone finds themselves in more-or-less the same boat.

This is looking like one of those times — and the boat is sinking. Japan, for instance, is back in recession…

Thursday, November 19, 2015

The Fed induced Stock Market Farce / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: James_Quinn

The minutes from the last Fed meeting were released on Wednesday afternoon. The minutes, along with a squadron of jabbering Fed heads lying about the economy doing great, pretty much locked in the most talked about .25% interest rate increase in world history.  Evidently the Wall Street titans of greed have convinced the muppets higher interest rates are great for stocks, as the market soared by 250 points. As institutional money exits the market on these rigged up days, the dumb money retail investor buys into the market with dreams of riches just like they did with Pets.com in 2000, McMansions in 2005, and Bear Stearns in 2007.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Stock Market Investors' Sentiment Continues To Improve, But Will It Last / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,140 and profit target at 1,990, S&P 500 index)

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Thursday, November 19, 2015

The Great Fall Of China Started At Least 4 Years Ago / Economics / China Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Looking through a bunch of numbers and graphs dealing with China recently, it occurred to us that perhaps we, and most others with us, may need to recalibrate our focus on what to emphasize amongst everything we read and hear, if we’re looking to interpret what’s happening in and with the country’s economy.

It was only fair -perhaps even inevitable- that oil would be the first major commodity to dive off a cliff, because oil drives the entire global economy, both as a source of fuel -energy- and as raw material. Oil makes the world go round.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Using Elliott Waves: As Simple As A-B-C / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory

By: EWI

Two resources from Elliott Wave International can help you get started

When Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered the Wave Principle nearly 70 years ago, he explained how social (or crowd) behavior trends and reverses in recognizable patterns. You can learn to identify these patterns as they unfold in the financial markets, and use them to help anticipate where prices will go next. Elliott Wave International has developed a free comprehensive online course -- The Elliott Wave Tutorial: 10 Lessons on the Wave Principle -- which describes these patterns and explains how they relate to one another.

To use the Wave Principle as you analyze the markets, you need a basic understanding of the Elliott method -- the rules and guidelines, the literal shape of individual waves, even when the larger trend may turn.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Has Deflation Been Ddefeated? / Stock-Markets / Deflation

By: Clif_Droke

The last 15 years have been among the most turbulent on record.  Since the year 2000, America has experienced two recessions (including a near depression), two stock market crashes, numerous selling panics, two terrorist attacks, and one of the slowest economic recoveries on record.

Just when it appears there might be some light at the end of the tunnel and the consumer is getting his confidence back, the threat of global deflation has appeared and has given them reason to remain cautious.    This time around the threat of deflation is coming from overseas, specifically from China.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Fed Talk... Rates To Rise.... Watching S&P 500 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

The stock market has been resilient no doubt. The bulls are buying up moves lower over and over ever since the bull-bear spread got down to minus 10%. In a bear market minus 10% reading isn't all that important. It can and will go much lower than that, but since all we had was a correction when we reached minus 10%, the bulls became active once again. There hadn't been any real distribution volume on that last correction, so that was one way to recognize that the bear had yet to begin. Let's face it, the best way to blast off a new bear market would be to make new highs and get a negative divergence in real time on those horrible-looking, monthly index charts.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Strong Stock Market Retracement / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The correction appears to be in the final leg. It has two probable targets. First is the 61.8% retracement value, which it has already achieved. The second is the top of Wave [iv] at 2086.94.

This retracement has gone much further than I had expected, but the Leading Diagonal was not at the top of my list, either. Leading Diagonals can fool a lot of people, since they camouflage their true impulsive nature. Notice that I had to use the 10-minute chart to get enough granularity to trace this pattern out.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Dow Jones Stock Market Index is Not Going to Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Sol_Palha

Empty pockets never held anyone back. Only empty heads and empty hearts can do that. ~ Norman Vincent Peale

We have published several articles over the past few months refuting proclamations from experts calling for a crash, two of which are Market sell off time to panic? And The Dow index is getting ready to soar . Instead, we viewed each so-called crash event through a bullish lens. We even went so far as to tell our clients to celebrate while the markets were pulling back, a practice that is unheard of today.

Look at the bright side; you get to do something you have never done before. Drink while everyone is screaming bloody murder and sing when the markets are sinking. Who knows you might be a budding singer in the makings. Yes, most will call you insane, but instead of being stricken with fear, you will now be the master of your destiny instead of a slave to another's. Drink and be merry for the markets are letting out some well-deserved steam. We see no reason to worry and no reason not to sleep well at night. ~ Interim Market Update July 9, 2015

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

The World's First Cashless Society Is Here - A Totalitarian's Dream Come True / Politics / Global Financial System

By: Casey_Research

By Nick Giambruno

Central planners around the world are waging a War on Cash. In just the last few years:

• Italy made cash transactions over €1,000 illegal;
• Switzerland proposed banning cash payments in excess of 100,000 francs;
• Russia banned cash transactions over $10,000;
• Spain banned cash transactions over €2,500;
• Mexico made cash payments of more than 200,000 pesos illegal;
• Uruguay banned cash transactions over $5,000; and
• France made cash transactions over €1,000 illegal, down from the previous limit of €3,000.

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Central Banks Will Not Be Able to Halt Economic Collapse / Economics / Financial Crash

By: Graham_Summers

In 2008, the world experienced the worst economic collapse in 80+ years. This collapse triggered a stock market crash that erased $30 trillion in wealth.

Since that time, collectively Central Banks have cut interest rates over 600 times and have printed over $15 trillion in new money… money that has failed to generate sustained economic growth… money that has set the stage for another stock market crash.

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

ISIS May Be Our Ally Some Day / Politics / ISIS Islamic State

By: MISES

Ferghane Azihari writes:“ISIS is certainly not a state” said Obama in a recent statement. This is the official line Western governments use to describe ISIS. The label terrorist is often used to describe dangerous and aggressive organizations. However, these characteristics are not used to describe organizations that don’t threaten the strategic interests of states that dominate the international community.

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

After Paris Attacks The Eurozone Is Hanging By a Thread / Politics / Euro-Zone

By: Jeff_Berwick

Ed Bugos writes: On September 13th, the exact end-date of the Shemitah and the beginning of what we said was going to be a crisis period that would erupt in the fall, we wrote, "Eurozone Collapses, Borders Erected Across Europe on Shemitah End Day ".

Many on the Internet said we were exaggerating or blowing a "temporary issue" out of proportion.

Yet, here were some of the headlines, just a day before the Paris Attacks (more on that below) on November 12th.

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

U.S. Inflation Setup to Upset / Economics / Inflation

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Is U.S. inflation setup to upset the markets? Motivation for considering this question begins with graph to right. Plotted in that chart is the year-to-year percentage change for the median U.S. CPI. That measure is calculated monthly by the diligent elves at Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Period of time for chart is past ten years.

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Bottom Line from the Paris Global Warming Summit / Politics / Climate Change

By: BATR

The political climate after the carnage in Paris has shifted the main stream media’s attention to terrorism, security concerns and foreigner migration, disguised as refugees. The climate change cultists are not under the same spotlight, before the blood flowed in the streets of the City of Light. Even the twisted attempt At Democratic Debate, Bernie Sanders Says Climate Change Helps Terrorism Spread, is not rejected out of hand.

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

European Union Challenged from Right and Left / Politics / European Union

By: John_Browne

The heinous ISIS attack in Paris is a game changer in Europe. In addition to the horrific amount of individual casualties, the attack has also threatened severe damage to the long term survivability of the European Union as a political entity. Based on the unpopularity and unfeasibility of immigration controls under the EU's Schengen Plan, the events have opened up the Union to renewed attacks from the right, just as its support from the left is crumbling as a result of opposition to EU-mandated fiscal austerity. This two-front onslaught may be too much for the Union to endure.

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

The Stock Market Global Central Bank Put Option / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Bob_Kirtley

Highly accommodative monetary policy and the increased responsiveness of central banks globally to economic shocks and other crises has led to a situation where, if such a shock occurs, then central banks ease monetary policy  quickly in response. This action calms markets, resulting in minimized selloffs and contained volatility while driving equities higher.

This phenomenon can be described as the Central Bank Put Option, as the situation effectively means that investors have a put option given to them by the central banks. We will discuss its origin and how it is currently in play, and then cover different strategies that can be used to take advantage of the put. Following this we will also look to analyse whether the Central Bank Put will be in play next year and how it may be traded going forward.