Friday, May 28, 2021
Inflation Cools (For Now) Stagflation Awaits / Stock-Markets / Stagflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
To maintain the inflation, a cooling of inflation was needed
That is one of those Alice in Wonderland-like statements, like the one I’ve got tattooed on my left forearm: “Contrary-wise, what is it wouldn’t be and what it wouldn’t be it would, you see?”
To maintain inflationary policy, as per various talking Fed (egg) heads, the hysterical run up in inflationary expectations and fears had to be tamped down. And so, Google users have indeed eased their neuroses right along with a recent tamping of inflationary hysteria.
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Friday, May 28, 2021
CPU Crypto Mining Profitability! 5950x Ethereum with Nicehash, is it worth it to mine for Bitcoins? / Currencies / Crypto Mining
By: HGR
Crypto mania is reaching new heights with the likes of Bitcoin trading to over $60,000 before the recent slump, which means virtually anyone with a decent ebough GPU in their PC can make money from their very own desktop computers. However what about your CPU, can that too make money to maximise income crypto craze? Can cpus generate enough hash rates to make them profitable as virtually all modern GPUs are?
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Thursday, May 27, 2021
GOOGLE (Alphabet) Stock Price Trend Analysis / Companies / Google
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Google has had a spectacular bull run to stand up 34% year to date! In terms of valuations Google's stock price is running a little ahead of itself on an EC of 49 against 44 in February. I consider a sweet buying spot for Google when EC is below 40 which would imply a fair price for Google around 2000. So Google is over priced at $2400, in terms of current earnings. In terms of a Buy %, Google is neutral on 50%.
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Thursday, May 27, 2021
The Shifting US Economy: AI and Automation Lead the Way / Economics / AI
By: Submissions
The Biden administration is 125 days old, and things certainly feel different. What strategies are you employing to take advantage of the shift?
Things often change temporarily before reverting to a mean. Just like market instruments, changing political ideals can, do, and will change, before ultimately reverting back to a mean, or an average state.
Labor force configurations have changed drastically, partially due to the pandemic. What was once everyone’s dream “to work from home”, went from a wish to a potentially harsh reality and has stayed there for many people.
Thursday, May 27, 2021
Are Silver Prices Really Cheap; And Does It Matter? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
Proponents of silver and their expectations for a much higher price have talked for years about the reasons “silver is undervalued” (their words, not mine).
Whether it is a deficit in new production of silver or the gold-to-silver ratio, there is always something to talk about; so let’s talk.
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Thursday, May 27, 2021
Looking Down the Rabbit Hole: The Soon Coming Stock Market Crash! / Forecasts / Stock Market 2021
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The charts below (SPX and GDX) show what I believe will happen into the month of June where I believe an important top will occur before a summer crash. The prognostication is not meant to take the place of the regular 2-3 e-mails I send out to my subs every day, but as generally expected future wave count with close projections for price and time projections as best I can determine based on the cycles of the past.
The first chart of the SPX shows the S&P 500 and its dramatic rising wedge pattern being formed since the Oct 30, 2020 bottom. I believe the orthodox E-Wave top occurred on April 16, 2021, with everything else being the irregular topping patterns that tend to occur right before a crash of note.
The big astrological implications for social-unrest, and a possible civil war and even a major world war, surround the 90-year passages of Saturn square Uranus (1931-32, 1861-62, 1771-72) and the 84-Year Cycle of Uranus in Taurus (1934-42, 1850-58, 1768-76), which are coming together here in the classic “Perfect Storm”.
Thursday, May 27, 2021
Bitcoin: More Volatility Directly Ahead? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: EWI
Here's how Elliott wave analysis helps you prepare for cryptocurrency volatility
If there's a single word to describe bitcoin's price action, that word is "volatile."
Yet, those who invested roughly a year ago in the cryptocurrency -- and stuck with it -- have been hugely rewarded. (At least until very recently, as bitcoin traded more than 50% lower from its all-time high on May 19, as the price careened nearly 30% at one point on that day alone.)
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Thursday, May 27, 2021
Are US Inflation Fears Destabilising the Global Markets? / Economics / Inflation
By: Sumeet_Manhas
The US dollar has enjoyed renewed highs of late, with this trend at least partially the result of forex positioning and a pronounced increase in net short positions as investors brace themselves for a depreciation in the value of the greenback.
However, this also betrays rising rates of US inflation, which recently peaked at 2.6% and pushed the dollar even higher against both the pound and the Euro.
But are rising inflation fears beginning to destabilise the global markets, and what does this tell us about the influence of inflation on stocks and shares throughout the world?
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Wednesday, May 26, 2021
Gold: The Past Years Are Often the Best Guides / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As we know, history tends to rhyme. It’s never the same, but when you zoom out, the bigger picture often looks very similar. What does it mean for gold?
Short-term implications
With gold’s back-and-forth price action mirroring its behavior from 2012, the yellow metal is likely destined for devaluation.
Back then, gold zigzagged with anxiety before suffering a material drawdown. In fact, in early October 2012, it moved slightly above the initial highs right before sliding.
Moreover, while the yellow metal has bounced above its declining resistance line (the black line below), the price action mirrors gold’s behavior from early January. If you analyze the blue line below, you can see that investors’ optimism regarding gold’s short-term breakout quickly faded and the yellow metal sunk like a stone. In addition, with gold’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) moving slightly above 70 before the January swoon occurred, an identical development is already playing out in real time.
Wednesday, May 26, 2021
Inflation Easing, Now What? / Economics / Inflation
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 refused to keep early gains, and reversed back into no man‘s land – on little convincing volume. For now, we remain chopping below my 4,180s level, conquering which on a closing basis would a bullish achievement. Until that happens on convincing internals, fake moves in both directions would remain with us.
The Fed telegraphing the talk about talking taper is a first step in preparing the markets not to get surprised by the actual deed, but how far is that one really? Stocks, bonds and currencies aren‘t reacting much – it‘s only commodities that are in consolidation mode, but this can be chalked down to inflation expectations calming down over the prior three trading days. Until the Fed truly moves or makes its forward guidance as unequivocal as can be in this respect, the markets would be in a doubting attitude (or at a minimum, a wait and see one):
(…) The market simply isn‘t convinced the Fed is serious about taking on inflation through (gradual) removal of the punch bowl – or about shaping its forward guidance credibly this way (yet). Inflation expectations are cooling down a little, and the Treasury market is tracking them closely. But this doesn‘t mean that bonds are taking the central bank seriously – this move is part and parcel of the transitory vs. getting (practically permanently unless a Fed game changer arrives – still unlikely) elevated inflation readings debate.
While I think that the red hot CPI inflation would die down a little (i.e. not keep rising ever as steeply as was the case with Wednesday‘s data) once the year on year base to compare it against normalizes, a permanently elevated plateau of high and rising inflation would be a reality for more than foreseeable future simply because the Fed would be as behind as Arthur Burns was in fighting the 1970s inflation, and upward price pressures in the job market pressures would kick in.
Wednesday, May 26, 2021
Is it a Good Idea to Trade Penny Stocks - The Pros and Cons / Companies / Investing 2021
By: Sumeet_Manhas
The world’s financial market is continuing to evolve at a rapid pace, both in terms of trading volumes and the range of assets available to investors.
While commodities and forex trading are amongst the most popular assets, penny stocks also offer potential value to investors. These are known as relatively high-risk securities that boast a small market capitalisation value, while they’re amongst the most accessible assets in the financial market.
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Wednesday, May 26, 2021
FREE Report - This Stock Strategy beat the market by 220% / Stock-Markets / Investing 2021
By: Submissions
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Monday, May 24, 2021
US Dollar Breaks Below 90 – Continue To Confirm Depreciation Cycle Phase / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you’ve been following my recent research posts, you already know my research team and I are expecting some very big volatility and trends in the US and global markets over the next 12 to 48 months.
The US Dollar Index fell below a critical support level above 90 recently. This move lower after attempting to bottom in early 2021 suggests our broad Appreciation/Depreciation cycle phase research is continuing to play out. This means we should start to prepare for bigger trends, more volatility, and the potential for broad market price rotation over the next few years. You can read about our Appreciation/Depreciation cycle phase research entitled Long Term Gold/US Dollar Cycles Show Big Trends For Metals and Metals Rally Early In 2021.
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Monday, May 24, 2021
How Popular are Small Business Loans? / Companies / Debt & Loans
By: Sumeet_Manhas
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Monday, May 24, 2021
Stock Market New Uptrend Starting? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends. A move past 4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: Phase three (wave 5 rom 3723) is now likely underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
Monday, May 24, 2021
CHIA Plotting on Mechanical Hard Drives Not SSD's or NVME2s - How Long to Plot / Personal_Finance / Crypto Mining
By: HGR
CHIA burns through SSD's and NVME2s at the rate of about 2tb per 100gb plot! So as an alternativer how long does it take to plot on a mechanical hard drive and how many plots can one expect to generate from 5 or 6 drives in a system all queue plotting away.
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Sunday, May 23, 2021
Gold Approaches $1,900 amid FOMC Minutes and Crypto Sell-Off / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The latest FOMC minutes were dovish, especially in light of the recent increase in inflation and elevated asset valuations. What does it mean for gold?Yesterday, the FOMC published minutes from its last meeting in April . They’ve shown two things doing that: first, that some of the central bankers are worried about the inflation and elevated asset valuations; and, second, that the Fed is going to remain dovish despite all these concerns .
Indeed, some FOMC participants noted that the demand for labor had started to put some upward pressure on wages. Moreover, a number of them pointed out the protracted supply disruptions and the insufficient pre-emptive hawkish reaction from the Fed as potentially inflationary factors:
A number of participants remarked that supply chain bottlenecks and input shortages may not be resolved quickly and, if so, these factors could put upward pressure on prices beyond this year. They noted that in some industries, supply chain disruptions appeared to be more persistent than originally anticipated and reportedly had led to higher input costs. (…)
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Sunday, May 23, 2021
How To Improve Personal Finances? / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Adam_Walker
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Sunday, May 23, 2021
Crypto, Stock Markets Rising from the Ashes / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 caught a partial bid yesterday, enough to stave off the break of prior Wednesday‘s lows. All isn‘t fine under the surface though as yet another Fed trial baloon emerges – this time, talking about talking taper, doing predictable wonders for the dollar. As I have stated, it‘s when the Fed would really move that the greenback would go up again. The important word here is „really“ - this doesn‘t qualify yet, but the noises can‘t be ignored.
That‘s taking me to the partial bid mention as it shows in the S&P 500 sectoral action – tech rises and value continues trembling. The Russell 2000 keeps lagging while emerging markets seem to still doubt the Fed‘s seriousness. But the VIX daily move is positive as the daily spike has been clearly rejected – another, this time a smaller and pickier algo repositioning at work. At the same time, option players got positioned for another shoe to drop, tying in well with their moves overall since late Feb.
Inflationary fears aren‘t by any means quelled just yet – Treasuries disregarded yesterday‘s retreat in inflation expectations. The Fed approach needs a refresher:
Sunday, May 23, 2021
US 10-Year Note Yields: Opportunity to Benefit? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Submissions
Given yesterday’s headlines with Bitcoin plunging, did you take a peek at interest rates? Could a stronger dollar lie ahead with higher rates?
While everybody’s eyes are peeled on cryptocurrencies and a crowded short DXY trade, let’s revisit the potentially polar opposite of a crypto instrument: 10-year notes. Yields rose on Wednesday, settling at 1.683%, just off the intraday high of 1.692%. I like to take a look when few others are looking. As yields closed near the highs of the day, with other risk assets seeming out of favor, at least temporarily, let’s revisit the 10-year notes.