Monday, February 05, 2024
Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute (Trim) Stock Positions to Maximise Profits - Investing 101 / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Most investors obsess over trying to buy THE bottom or try and sell THE top and thus they either end up holding nothing or are weak hands eager to sell everything on every rally. Here I teach a simple mechanisms that stops one from obsessing over tops and bottoms but instead goes with the flow by trimming into rallies (banking profits) and accumulating on the dips with little thought on trying to buy the bottom or sell the top.
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Monday, February 05, 2024
US Exponential Budget Deficit / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Congress Budget Office report projects the US deficit as a percentage of GDP being on an explosive trend trajectory which is as a function of the US government borrowing money to spend on consumption resulting in an ever interest payments and debt mountain. Folks we are looking at an out of control debt spiral, as interest on debt continues to result in the printing of even more new debt.
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Monday, February 05, 2024
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The situation in gold and gold stocks is not stagnant. Something shifted. And the implications are not minor.
A Moment of Realization
In 1993, Aerosmith released the song called “Amazing”. I really enjoyed it when it came out and some of the lyrics stuck in my mind. When I was reviewing the charts to prepare today’s analysis, I recalled a part of that song. I wasn’t sure why, as it’s been sometime when I was listening to it.
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Monday, February 05, 2024
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: MoneyMetals
The Federal Reserve’s most recent policy statement came with a curious omission. Fed officials removed language from previous statements that proclaimed “the U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.”
That begs the question: Is the banking system no longer sound and resilient?
The Fed initially inserted the language in March 2023 following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) – whose balance sheet obviously wasn’t sound or resilient.
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Sunday, February 04, 2024
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This table proved remarkably accurate on it's own for pointing towards swing lows in March and October of 2023. Whilst June had a much lower probability and thus did not factor into my forecast expectations, despite at the time everyone wanting the market to make a low contrary to the road map which forecast a continuing uptrend into July.
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Sunday, February 04, 2024
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold price rallied this week, and this got many heads turning. Rightfully so?
Let’s check the details and see what really happened.
Having said that, let’s take a look at gold’s rally.
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Sunday, February 04, 2024
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Where there’s fire, there’s smoke.
And there is definitely smoke in the U.S. banking system.
The mainstream consensus is that the Federal Reserve successfully raised interest rates, slayed the inflation monster, and did it without breaking anything in the economy. Most people seem convinced the central bank will continue guiding the economy to a soft landing, and soon, it can go back to delivering the easy money the economy depends on.
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Sunday, February 04, 2024
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: MoneyMetals
After a sluggish January for precious metals, gold and silver markets saw a rally during the first day of February trading, only to see it reverse here today on the 2nd day of the month, after a strong U.S. jobs report, to continue the lackluster performance we’ve seen in early 2024.
On Thursday, gold gained $15 to settle at $2,064 per ounce. As of this Friday recording, the monetary metal has given back all of Thursday’s gain and then some and currently checks in at $2,045 but is still up a slight 0.8% for the week.
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Sunday, February 04, 2024
Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Richard_Mills
The probability of interest rate cuts has many market participants pondering whether 2024 will bring a bull market for precious metals.
Gold has held up quite well despite the Fed’s tightening cycle, gaining 13% in 2023.
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Wednesday, January 31, 2024
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The name of the game is to -
a. STAY INVESTED
b. Capitalise on discounting events.
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Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
The difference between the perception of the stock market during October 2023, and today, is amazingly stark. At the time, almost everyone believed we were likely heading towards recession, and that the stock market was on its way down in a big way. Fast-forward to today, and GDP is stronger than most believed, consumer spending has been strong, the Fed is considering lowering rates, employment remains strong, and there seems to be further good news across many different sectors (along with the booming expectations based upon AI), with a number of major stocks hitting new all-time highs along with the overall stock markets.
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Wednesday, January 31, 2024
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: EWI
"Note the succession of higher closing low relative to higher highs in..."
First, just a quick basic fact about the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -- also known as the stock market's "fear gauge": the lower the reading, the higher the complacency among investors. Higher readings indicate increased investor nervousness.
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Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market trend forecast mission accomplished, a rally to 4600 July 2023 to resolve in a correction to 4100 by late October 2023 followed by a rally into the end of the year.
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Sunday, January 28, 2024
The Roaring AI Tech Stocks 2020's / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just pause for a moment and take in the chart below that I have been iterating since June 2020, the message one should be receiving is that I expect this bull market to run for many more years, that I expected to target a return of X6 over some 7 years on where AI tech stocks stood June 2020, whilst my best guess 3.5 years ago was that we could see a major top during 2027, as long as run away valuations moderated from time to time delivering buying opps as they did during 2022 then I don't see why this should not still remain the big picture, thus the bull market that began March 2009 could continue to fulfill my original expectations for a 18 year bull market, where even the bear market that follows it will prove temporary as the bull market once more resumes during the 2030's.
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Saturday, January 27, 2024
BP Oil Stock Bullish Formation and Its Consequences / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: Submissions
The combination of supports and a candlestick formation encouraged the bulls to fight.How high could stock go?
Last week turned out to be a breakthrough for the bulls. They managed to maintain important support, which attracted buyers to the trading floor and resulted in further positive technical changes. How high can the bulls climb in the following days? You will find the answer to this question in the article below. Have a nice read.
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Saturday, January 27, 2024
Gold:Silver Ratio Signals Silver on Sale / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Silver is underpriced.
In other words, silver is on sale.
The current gold-to-silver ratio reveals this.
This ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. Or to put it another way, the gold:silver ratio tells you the price of gold in silver.
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Saturday, January 27, 2024
Investing in the Stock Market is Like Boxing With Mike Tyson - Investor Psychology / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Most market participants soon learn that stock market investing isn't as easy as the clowns on the CNBC cartoon network sales pitches present it to be. Investing is like getting into a boxing ring with Mike Tyson, become arrogant and you will get knocked out in the first round. Whilst all those fund managers and analists on the financial cartoon networks never even fund set foot in the ring. Think of the stock market as Mike Tyson, it will knock you out! All one can do is to learn through experience to dodge as many as those punches as possible, that is the way to win in the stock market.
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Wednesday, January 24, 2024
S&P Stock Market Detailed Trend Forecast 2024 - P1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P ends 2023 at 4770, a raging bull market that has been missed by most as 2023 proved to be another year where the consensus got it badly wrong, doom and gloom, a recession was seen as being a done deal as it was for 2022, then there was the debt ceiling nothing burger, QT! What QT? We had stealth QE via the reverse repo market, and the banking crisis nothing burger, plenty of reasons why NOT to invest all the way down from the likes of Stanley Druckenmiller through to the perma fools on the CNBC cartoon network, blogosFear all convinced most to park their funds into T-bills and money market accounts.
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Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Make Bitcoin's Volatility Work for You / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: EWI
Here's a bullish forecast when a "crypto winter" was proclaimed
The price action of bitcoin has been the very epitome of volatility.
The good news for Elliott wave practitioners is that the greater the emotional swings in a financial market, the clearer the Elliott waves -- but not at every juncture along a market's price path.
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Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Synthetic Intelligence / Personal_Finance / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Is Artificial the right word to use for what is taking place as we enter 2024?
Artificial - made or produced by human beings rather than occurring naturally, especially as a copy of something natural.
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