Monday, March 18, 2024
AI can now remember everything you say / Politics / AI
By: Stephen_McBride
- Did you know this is the biggest election year in history?
I’m not only talking November’s US presidential election.
In 2024, 76 countries with more than four billion people will head to the polls.
Investors, pay attention—because any politician who wants to get re-elected is incentivized to hand out goodies to voters.
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Bitcoin Crypto Mania $72k, Bitcoin proxy MSTR mania $1650, here's my Bitcoin analysis and concluding trend forecast for the whole of 2024 that was first made available to patrons who support my work who were buying bitcoin from 16k, no kidding $16k! Where this trend forecast for 2024 dates back to $27k, and then we had MSTR at under $500 in January, all for the price of a cheap Martini, $5 bucks! That's all! to have recieved my Bitcoin Gift! I could not have been any clearer at the time both for Bitcoin and the Microstrategy gravy trains.
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Monday, March 11, 2024
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Bitcoin $70k, Bitcoin proxy MSTR $1400, here's my Bitcoin trend forecast for 2024 which includes how you could have bought BTC for $27k and MSTR for under $500 all for the price of a Martini, just $5 bucks! Being tight fisted has cost you the Bitcoin gift! Still it's not over! The crypto bull market is only getting started! Nevertheless my Bitcoin gift that was first made available to Patrons who support my work, so for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 before it soon rises to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat. I mean what you getting access for just $5 bucks is literally insane as you will soon find out....
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Monday, March 11, 2024
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Clif_Droke
Of the many factors that determine gold price trends, the long-term cycle of inflation and deflation is of singular importance. The cycle in question corresponds closely to the 50-to-60-year economic periodicity known as the Kondratieff Wave (or K-Wave), but is in fact a separate cycle. As we’ll discuss here, the cycle tells us to expect a gradual acceleration of inflationary pressures between now and the year 2029, with particular significance for gold investors.
The K-Wave was brought to renown in the 1920s by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff and is widely regarded as the predominant economic super cycle. This cycle arguably represents the most casual approach to identifying the real supply/demand conditions of any free market economy and is especially applicable to the United States. (Cycle analysts have even identified this cycle as existing as far back as thousands of years ago in Assyria and the Roman Empire.)
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Monday, March 11, 2024
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Richard_Mills
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is core PCE, which stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures index. This inflation gauge, published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), doesn’t include food and energy, because prices for these two categories tend to be volatile.
When the latest PCE numbers came out on Feb. 29, they showed January headline PCE was 2.4%, year on year, while core PCE was 2.8%.
Remember, the Fed’s targeted inflation rate is 2%. Inflation needs to be falling to somewhere close to 2%, for the Fed to consider lowering interest rates, having raised them 11 times since spring 2022.
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Monday, March 11, 2024
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Kelsey_Williams
There are two reasons the Fed manipulates interest rates. Before we talk about those reasons, though,it is important to understand that the Fed does not actually control interest rates. Interest rates are set in the bond market. Buyers and sellers (traders) bid for and offer bonds for sale. When a buyer and seller agree on a price, the trade is finalized. The specific price, in conjunction with the face value of the bond (always $1000) and the stated coupon rate attached to the bond (and the length of time until the bond matures for yield to maturity) factor into the formula which determines the current yield, or what might be called the bond’s current interest rate.
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Saturday, March 09, 2024
US Dollar Trend 2024 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Generally when the dollar falls US stocks go up, and when the dollar rises US stocks would tend to exhibit a weaker trend, so a rising dollar does not necessary mean that stocks will fall, rather that it is the rate of change, how volatile the dollar is that can send ripples of uncertainty in the market, so the dollar trading sharply lower would be bearish for stocks -
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Saturday, March 09, 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
An opportunist trade to capitalise on the bond market blood bath of 2023,, objective for about a 50% return over 2 years with my original analysis timed to coincide with the bond market bottom - 7th Aug 2023 https://www.patreon.com/posts/inflation-bond-87342150
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Saturday, March 09, 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
This week investors are witnessing a historic move in gold prices. The precious metal finally broke above a longstanding overhead resistance level to reach new all-time highs.
On Thursday, gold closed at $2,170 per ounce – its highest level since…well, since records have been kept.
As of this Friday recording, gold checks in at $2,203 an ounce on the heels of a 5.2% advance on the week – its best week in nearly six months. Silver shows a weekly gain of 5.9% to bring spot prices to $24.70 an ounce. Platinum is up 3.0% to trade at $926. And finally, palladium is putting in a 6.7% gain this week to come in at $1,061 per ounce.
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Saturday, March 09, 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Submissions
When you’re considering investing in precious metals, you are confronted with many options. Silver or gold? Bars or coins? And what in the world is an ETF?
Understanding the differences between an ETF and physical gold and silver is an important first step in the journey to precious metals investing.
ETF is an acronym for “Exchange Traded Fund.” In simplest terms, an ETF represents a basket of investments that trades on the market as a single entity. An ETF could represent just one commodity, such as oil, or it could hold a wide range of assets such as tech stocks. The mix of securities that can potentially be held in an ETF is limited only by your imagination.
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Saturday, March 09, 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
"The total easily exceeds the prior net long extreme"
When most everyone agrees on the future trend of a market, it's almost guaranteed that the market will go in the other direction -- sooner rather than later.
The reason why is that there is no one left to convince, hence, the market in question will likely have difficulty going in the predicted direction.
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Saturday, March 09, 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory
By: EWI
Dear reader,
You want to turn Elliott wave theory into a practical trading tool -- right?
Of course you do!
Our friends at Elliott Wave International have a new resource to help you do just that.
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Monday, March 04, 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day! you get access to my latest market brief posted to patrons this morning.
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Friday, March 01, 2024
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The crypto bull market is under way! For just $5 bucks you could have accumulated Bitcoin at $27k instead of at the current price of $62k. Still not to late to captialise on the great crypto bull market of 2024! Last Chance to Get on Board the Bitcoin Crypto Gravy Train - Choo Choo!
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Friday, March 01, 2024
Stocks and Inverted Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yield curve now inverted for 21 months so where's the recession? An inverted yield curve is supposed to predict an recession, however as I pointed out months ago for why I was accumulating long-bonds is that the US Treasury NEEDS LOWER long-term interest rates for it's flood of debt issuance during 2024, it does not want to pay 5% interest on this debt that continues to inflate the debt interest spiral. So the Fed will engineer LOWER long term yields whilst maintaining higher short-term rates so as to continue to suppress INFLATION! Which is what has come to pass, long rates are now 1% lower whilst the Fed fund rate remains at 5.25%.
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Friday, March 01, 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The current Fed Funds rate is 5.25% with he market expectations for the cuts to commence March 2023, though the market has been wrong for the whole of 2023 when Fed rate cuts were always seen as starting some 6 months into the future! In reality it does not matter when the Fed cuts rates because the Fed FOLLOWS the market rates not sets them. And the market rates as evidenced by bond yields has been falling for the past few months.
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Thursday, February 29, 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield / Stock-Markets / Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's another indicator to pile on top of a mountain of indicators that I have been covering over the years that spiked lower below 0 into 2022 before bouncing. during 2023. Of note is the fact that every spike below zero is accompanied by a recession. So where's the recession? Answer it HAPPENED during 2022! It's just that the econofools had talked themselves out of recognising the fact that a recession had taken place.
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Thursday, February 29, 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic / Economics / Unemployment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst everyone focuses on the unemployment rate as a gauge for economic activity, however the statistic has been engineered to the extent to become meaningless as shadow stats illustrates.
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Thursday, February 29, 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets / Stock-Markets / HyperInflation
By: Raymond_Matison
U.S. equities market was strong in 2023, and after a decline in 2022, rose by 20% last year as measured by the S&P 500 Index. In addition, that index rose above 5,000 for the first time ever in the early part of the 2024 year. Surely, it must be because our economy is strong - as key government officials including our president have assured us. Or maybe not?! You can decide for yourself as key issues are evaluatedherein. We will compare our current equity market performance with a period 100 years ago with its implications for our future financial markets. We will look at the concept of self-custody for assets from gold to bank money deposits, to a securities stock and bond account and the custody of digital assets. We examine how America’s proxy war efforts are affecting our budget deficit, and the dire need for additional debt/money issueance promoting product price inflation, and asset inflation. We examine America’s profligate spending challenging a growing BRICS coalition promoting global de-dollarization, and its effects on our fiat currency’s value, alternative currencies and implications for adoption and value of Web 3 digital assets.
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Thursday, February 29, 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
GDXJ declined once again yesterday, but the situation in silver juniors is even worse!
Silver Juniors in Trouble
Yes, it is possible for a market to be in an even worse position than gold junior mining stocks – that’s the case with silver juniors.
To be precise, the GDXJ aims to be exposed to about 80% gold juniors and 20% of silver juniors, but the SILJ ETF aims to be exposed to just silver miners, with the focus on junior miners.