Wednesday, March 25, 2020
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The most probable reason why Britain and the US did nothing during February was due to both nations apparently following the "Herd Immunity" Protocol, which requires approx 60% of the population to become infected so that the virus is no longer able to spread to the remaining population as confirmed by the Chief Scientific Advisor to Boris Johnson's Government who publically stated this objective but refused to discuss the implied death toll.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Submissions
With hoops “out” and exponentials “in” (referring to March Madness, the 2020 pandemic definition), there’s a new, customary disclaimer on economics and financial sites. Mine says that I, too, knew nothing about infectious disease modeling only two months ago. But I’m catching up, just like everyone else. By now, I might have reached a “Dummies Guide” standard, and I’ll keep this article at about that level.
So with that preface out of the way, I’ll first offer a health warning of sorts about a type of COVID-19 chart that’s popular with market bulls. Here’s a version that appeared in the New York Times:
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Is the Stock Market discounting the Coronavirus yet?
Well what will be effect on the stock market when we see start to see the numbers of infected virtually doubling every couple of days over the coming week, especially as unlike China the US is not going to hide the numbers of infected.
The markets look at the numbers, they want to see the number of infected stabilising and then DECREASING on a daily basis, and NOT DOUBLING every couple of days!
Therefore this implies we are going to continue to experience a bearish trend trajectory for at least March and likely April, despite Fed panic actions, as it now looks like my estimate of 13,000 US infected by the end of March gave way too much credence to US healthcare and CDC competency, instead both have proven to be seriously lacking i.e. closer in performance to that of Iran than South Korea!
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
US National Debt is About to Surge Like Never Before! / Politics / US Debt
By: Michael_Pento
The U.S. National Debt is about to surge like never before, along with the rest of the entire planet’s gigantic pile of sovereign IOUs. America started with a $23.5 trillion debt before the Wuhan virus outbreak, with annual deficits running over a $1 trillion; and projected to be at least that amount for the next dozen years. But then, the stock market and economy crashed due to the catalyst of the COVID-19 pandemic, which pricked the massive bubble in junk bonds and equities that I have been warning about for years.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Last week was another week of wild market volatility for all asset classes, and precious metals were no exception.
Gold continues to be the least volatile metal. And it continues to hold up better than the chaotic stock market during most trading days. But it has experienced some downside in recent days.
Money Metals Exchange and other bullion dealers have experienced an unprecedented surge in demand for silver and gold coins, bars, and rounds. Many dealers have essentially sold out and/or refused to accept smaller orders because of fulfillment challenges.
The month of March could set an all-time record for sales of Silver Eagles. That will depend on whether the U.S. Mint is willing and able to supply coins to dealers in volumes that the market demands.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
Pandemics and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In the first part, we analyzed the HIV/AIDS pandemic, as the most deadly pandemic since the 1971, and the SARS pandemic, as the most similar to the current COVID-19 pandemic. However, we have witnessed several other pandemics in the recent decades. Let’s investigate them now and draw conclusions for the global economy and the gold market.
Let’s start with the epidemic of 2009 A/H1N1 flu, called also the swine flu. It originated in pigs from central Mexico and lasted from early 2009 to late 2010. It was highly contagious, as around 1.66 billion of people, or 24 percent of the then global population, contracted the illness. Luckily, the case-fatality rate was very small, around 0.001-0.0035 percent, which resulted in an estimated range of deaths from between 151,700 and 575,400 people, around 10 times higher than the first estimates based on the number of cases confirmed by lab tests. The peak of interest in the swine flu occurred in April 2009, while the number of cases peaked in June 2009. As one can see in the chart below, the price of gold did not rally to the hysteria about the swine flu. It is true that gold started in mid-2009 its great bull market, but the rally came after the peak in the swine flu outbreak, so it seems that it was rather a reaction to the Great Recession and the Fed’s quantitative easing.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
The UK government finally woke up last week to smell the coffee, that their insane policy of aiming for herd immunity was about to result in a catastrophic death toll and so made a series of PANIC announcements to shutdown the whole of the UK in attempts at curbing the exponential curve that the UK had entered. However the rates of infection are not uniform across Britain, so this analysis of several major UK cities reveal there are hotspots and safe zones. Though, bare in mind that the risk of getting infected is always increasing. Nevertheless here is an analysis of the risks of getting infected where the peoples of Sheffield and London should pay special attention to!
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The penny finally appears to have dropped in the US! Where even uber skeptic President Trump has finally had someone read the writing on the wall to him, with the US appearing to start to swing firmly in the right direction, though as the following graph illustrates the damage is likely already done, so the US WILL pay a heavy price for Presidential & Congressional Governmental and CDC NEGLIGENCE that borders on CRIMINAL. Where the US wasted THE WHOLE OF FEBRUARY! The US could have nipped this in the bud as I repeatedly suggested was possible during February, but instead supreme arrogance in monitoring and capability reigned supreme until the stock market started discounting the trend trajectories that were starting to unfold. Remember that the stock market DISCOUNTS the future, it's not going to wait for 100,000 deaths before it nose dives as we have witness take place these past 2 weeks.
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen / Politics / Pandemic
By: James_Quinn
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” ― Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
“A Crisis mood does not guarantee that the new governing policies will be well designed or will work as intended.
To the contrary: Crisis eras are studded with faulty leadership and inept management—from President Lincoln’s poor record of choosing generals to President Roosevelt’s colossal blunders with such alphabet soup agencies as the AAA, NRA, and WPA.
What makes a Crisis special is the public’s willingness to let leaders lead even when they falter and to let authorities be authoritative even when they make mistakes.
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis / Companies / Gambling
By: Submissions
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out / Personal_Finance / Technology
By: Dylan_Moran
When asked about high-tech products, people tend to think of electronics. It’s understandable as technology can be easily interpreted by electronics, but what you should know is that this isn’t always the case.
A high-tech product is anything that is made or created with the use of modern scientific and technical knowledge. These are basically products that were made to be useful or purposeful based on a study or needs of the people.
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My existing forecasts were concluded at a time when there were literally a handful of cases in the UK and US which gave valuable insight into the relative strength or weaknesses of the US and UK actions towards containing Coronavirus outbreaks, my assumptions at the time were that the UK and US would learn lessons from China and South Korea's and so should ne primed for better outcomes.
However, as you are likely aware by now that both nations have been found greatly lacking as became apparent with each passing day that the governments were basically sleep walking towards a Coronavirus apocalypse of sorts that manifested itself in an ever more severe stocks bear market that materialised long before the number of infections started to run into the thousands as forewarned by the Coronavirus deviation against the trend forecasts.
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: The_Gold_Report
Maurice Jackson: Today, we will find out if there is a crisis response for your investment portfolio. Joining us for a conversation is legendary investor Rick Rule of Sprott USA.
Rick Rule: Maurice, thank you so much for having me on. These are really interesting times, and it's fun to address your audience in times like these.
Maurice Jackson: Sir, it is an absolute privilege to have you on our program during these extreme global market conditions. Speculators want to find out what you're doing as a crisis response and what actions they may take on their portfolio under these current market conditions. From your perspective as one of the most highly regarded credit analysts in the world, was this financial collapse inevitable?
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: An “official” bear market has now been declared.
SPX Intermediate trend: First phase of correction nearly over.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“For twelve consecutive years, gold was up every single year whether there were inflation fears, deflation fears; strong dollar, weak dollar; political stability, political instability. It didn’t matter – strong oil, weak oil. . . Gold went up for twelve years. . . When gold embarks upon its next move, I believe that you will see that long wave take gold relatively quickly, but it will be measured in years, up to a $3000 to $5000 target that I believe is fundamentally justified based on the facts we have today.” –– Thomas Kaplan, Electrum Group (Bloomberg’s Peer to Peer Conversations with David Rubinstein)
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Silicon Valley are now facing the question as to whether or not they should use all of the consumer data that they have in an attempt to fight the pandemic. Tech companies such as Apple and even the federal government are shifting their approach to try and fight the coronavirus. Trump and the White House are now calling upon tech companies to see if they can lend a hand. Various companies are now in talks with the government as to whether or not they may need to leverage their reach.
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails / Stock-Markets / Pandemic
By: Ellen_Brown
In what is being called the worst financial crisis since 1929, the US stock market has lost a third of its value in the space of a month, wiping out all of its gains of the last three years. When the Federal Reserve tried to ride to the rescue, it only succeeded in making matters worse. The government then pulled out all the stops. To our staunchly capitalist leaders, socialism is suddenly looking good.
The financial crisis began in late February, when the World Health Organization announced that it was time to prepare for a global pandemic. The Russia-Saudi oil price war added fuel to the flames, causing all three Wall Street indices to fall more than 7 percent on March 9. It was called Black Monday, the worst drop since the Great Recession in 2008; but it would get worse.
On March 12, the Fed announced new capital injections totaling an unprecedented $1.5 trillion in the repo market, where banks now borrow to stay afloat. The market responded by driving stocks 8% lower.
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Monday, March 23, 2020
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis seeks to conclude in detailed trend forecasts for US and UK Coronavirus Infections and deaths into the end of April 2020. The importance of which being to act as indicators for the primary driver for stock market trend since Mid February. Where as was the case with my preceding forecasts into the end of March, deviations against the Coronavirus trend warned of worse prospects for stock prices as the UK and US FAILED to follow the South Korean model of containing the pandemic, instead either proved completely incompetent in doing nothing despite having had well over a months advance warning of what to expect. Or perhaps by design so as to allow the virus to infect the general population as it was deemed to be impossible to prevent in the long-run given the movement of people, goods and services and so a quick sharp deadly shock was deemed to be the most cost effective solution.
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Monday, March 23, 2020
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Economic data shows that the coronavirus crisis will be severe. To soften the blow, Trump announced his support plans for the economy. Will the stimulus package help? And when will gold finally rise?COVID-19 Hits the US Economy
The global epidemic of COVID-19 has already hit the US economy. We start to see evidence how bad this crisis might be. First, retail sales dropped 0.5 percent in February. That’s the biggest drop in a year. But it will change quickly – just think about the number in March or April!
Second, the US consumer sentiment fell from 101 in February to 95.9 in March. Again, expect much worse readings in the future, as the number covers only the beginning of the month when Americans just started to acknowledge the coronavirus threat.
Monday, March 23, 2020
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities / Politics / Pandemic
By: Patrick_Watson
Bought any groceries lately? You probably weren’t alone. Nor were you surrounded by crazy people. The store mobs are perfectly rational, given recent events.
We can’t stop the novel coronavirus from spreading. We can slow it down, though, and that may prove critically important. So whether governments order it or not (and they already have in many place), people are staying home as much as possible.
People stuck at home still need to eat. When everyone’s homemade food requirements suddenly and simultaneously increase, grocery stores get busy. That’s math, not panic.
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