Saturday, March 23, 2019

Which Currency Pairs Stand to Benefit from Prevailing Risk Aversion? / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: P_Radomski_CFA

After the Fed’s surprise move, the dust is getting settled. We are seeing serious reprising across many currency pairs. Sharp movements practically anywhere you look today. Where to start? With the euro, the yen or the Canadian dollar? It’s hard to choose the winner among all the moves in our favor. Let’s shine more light into every pair covered so that you are as prepared for what lies ahead as we are. Our subscribers already are.

Friday, March 22, 2019

If You Get These 3 Things Right, You’ll Never Have to Worry About Money / Personal_Finance / Financial Education

By: Jared_Dillian

You have some money. Do you pay down the mortgage, or do you invest in the stock market?

You can use math to make this decision, but math is not much help because there is uncertainty.

• The stock market allegedly returns 8%, but sometimes a lot less.

• Your house will hopefully appreciate, but by how much? Nobody knows.

• And what are interest rates going to do?

• It also mostly depends on where you live in the country.

• There are tax implications to residential mortgages.

• Your own behavior is also uncertain—it depends on your risk tolerance and fear of the downside.

Friday, March 22, 2019

Stock Market Russell 2000 Leads The Way For Technical Analysts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The Russell 2000 ETF continues to deliver critical technical and longer-term price patterns for skilled technicians.  Combining the IWM chart with the Transportation Index, Oil, Gold, and others provide a very clear picture of what to expect in the immediate future.

Recently, we posted a research article about the Head-n-Shoulders pattern setting up in the $INDU.  Again, the IWM chart is also showing a very clear Head-n-Shoulders pattern with critical resistance near $159.50 and support near $144.25.  Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe this right Shoulder will prompt a downside market move towards support near $144.25 before a downward sloping wedge pattern sets up.  This first downward price leg will setup and congesting wedge formation that will, eventually, break to the upside and drive market prices higher.

Friday, March 22, 2019

Two Most Important Recession Indicators and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

With everyone talking about recession, investors desperately need some clues to assess the state of the economy. This is what our today’s article provide you with. We invite you to read it and find out what are the two most important recession indicators – and what is the link between them and the gold prices.

With everyone talking about recession, investors desperately need some clues to assess the state of the economy. We have already discussed how the NBER determines recessions, pointing out that its indicators are not the best tools for forward-looking precious metals investors. We mean here that the real GDP, real income, industrial production, retail sales and employment are not close to flashing red, but even when they do, the recession will already be underway.

Friday, March 22, 2019

March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis / Currencies / BlockChain

By: Umer_Mahmood

Friday, March 22, 2019

Turkey Tourist Fakes Market Bargains Haggling Top Tips / / Shopping

By: HGR

If your going on holiday this year to Turkey and similar North African holiday destinations then you'l likely visit one of the bustling local open air markets with plenty of bargains to be had if your upto the haggling challenge! It's a experience in its out right and its FREE, apart from the shopping. You get to see and experience a different side of the world, markets usually full of tourists from all over the world of all types and ages, a true melting pot.

The markets sell virtually everything under the sun, food, fruit, sweets, electronics, bags, all sorts of bags, trinkets, shoes, jewellery and clothes, tons of clothes, from the mainstay for tourists t-shirt's tons and tons of t-shirts to the local traditional garments.

Friday, March 22, 2019

Elliott Wave: Fed Follows Market Yet Again / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: EWI

By Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall

Back in December, we wrote an article titled "Interest Rates Win Again as Fed Follows Market."

In the piece, we noted that while most experts believe that central banks set interest rates, it's actually the other way around—the market leads, and the Fed follows.

Friday, March 22, 2019

Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Dan_Amerman

In a previous analysis we examined how to create a 21% yield, as the incidental byproduct of the Fed's plans for the cyclical containment of recession.

In this analysis, we will deepen that examination and visually illustrate the financial mathematics that would create a potential 48% yield from what the Federal Reserve plans to do in the event of another recession.

This analysis is part of a series of related analyses, an overview of the rest of the series is linked here.

Friday, March 22, 2019

Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations

By: John_Mauldin

Every investor knows that “past performance is not indicative of future results.” Yet many embrace century-long averages as a reasonable guess for future returns.

Back in the late 1990s, we were told that the long-term average return (~10%) was a reasonable long-term assumption. Instead, the S&P 500 Index has only gained about 3% annually since 1999—just over half the historical average.

This forced Baby Boomers to work longer and harder to retire, as well as save more of their income.

Friday, March 22, 2019

Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! / Forecasts / Financial Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

Today’s biggest news was that the Fed predicts no more rate hikes this year. Given that we are extremely late in this economic expansion cycle, this probably means that the Fed is also done hiking rates for this economic expansion cycle.

Of course, the news outlets and social media took this as “the Fed now acknowledges ‘recession risks’, so it’s time to run for the hills!”

Friday, March 22, 2019

Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

Bridging loans are often seen as commercial loans to cover a temporary funding shortfall or a delay in funding. They’re also useful for a variety of other situations like a delayed mortgage closing or buying a home at auction too.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Fed doubled down on its dovish stance. What card will gold play now?

Fed Remains Patient

Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on March 19-20th. In line with the expectations, the US central bank unanimously kept its interest rates unchanged. The federal funds rate remained at the target range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent:

The Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

With the UUP ( US Dollar ETF) having a fairly large decline today lets update a few charts to see how they’ve been progressing. Back in August of last year the UUP began to build out a rising wedge formation with today’s price action completing the fourth reversal point when the UUP traded down to the bottom trendline. Sometimes when a stock fails to touch the top rail in a well defined pattern like the rising wedge the UUP is showing, it can be a warning sign that the energy just isn’t there and the stock has run out of gas. To complete the rising wedge we need to see the bottom rail give way which should usher in a strong move for the PM complex and I would think commodities in general.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

The Stock Market Chart No One of CNBC Wants You to See / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

In the last two months every single Fed Hawk has given up on normalization.

Every. Single. One.

Throughout 2018 Fed Chair Powell maintained that he was focused EXCLUSIVELY on normalizing Fed policy by:

1)   Reducing its Balance Sheet to pre-crisis levels of ~$1 trillion, a whopping $3.5 trillion lower than the $4.5 trillion it was when Powell took the helm at the Fed.

2)   Raising interest rates to the neutral rate (the rate of GDP growth/ inflation).

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Silver Price is Cheap vs Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: readtheticker

Metal investors will be paying attention to how out of favor silver is relative to gold. And it is hard to wonder why with the well forecast boom of electric cars expected over the next 10 years. Who owns all the silver? JM Bullion has a series of charts here. Notice the stock pile held by JPM. They will do will if silver gets to $30 USD an once! Chart up to April 2017

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Gold Price To Continue To Base Below $1320 For Weeks / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd., believes Gold will continue to base below $1320 for at least another 3~5 weeks before setting up a momentum price base.  Our research suggests general weakness in the US stock market over the next few weeks/months as a Head-n-Shoulders pattern unfolds.  Interestingly enough, our research also suggests Gold may continue to base below $1320 (likely below $1300) for at least another 2~4 weeks before forming a rounded bottom type pattern as a base.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

This Formula Will Tell You How Much You Need to Retire—and It May Be More Than You Think / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement

By: Jared_Dillian

How much money do you need to retire? Ask Google!

The first page gives you a wide range of numbers, mostly between $1 million and $2 million.

Of course, most people retire with less than that. They make it work.

Here’s my advice: stop thinking about retirement in terms of absolute numbers. It is all relative.

One of my longtime readers, Neile Wolfe, of Wells Fargo Advisors in Austin, TX has an elegant solution to the problem.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Green New Physics / Politics / Environmental Issues

By: Raul_I_Meijer

You could probably say I’m sympathetic to the schoolchildren protesting against climate change, and I’m sympathetic to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and her call for a Green New Deal. Young people are the future, and they deserve a voice about that future. At the same time, I’m also deeply skeptical about their understanding of the issues they talk about.

In fact, I don’t see much understanding at all. I think that’s because they base their comprehension of the world they’ve been born into on information provided by the very people they’re now protesting against. Look kids, your education system sucks, it was designed by those destroying your planet, you need to shake it off and get something better.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party / Politics / BrExit

By: John_York

UKIP's embrace of Tommy Robinson has fuelled one of Britain's foremost hate preacher to reach a broad audience many of whom are increasingly being radicalised into committing acts of violence, though thank fully given Britain's tough gun laws nothing on the scale of last weeks New Zealand terror attack. One such attack that is being widely reported on by the mainstream media was in London on Saturday near Heathrow airport where a white male after an near hour of hurling racist and white supremacist abuse on the street at passers by including "death to all muslims","I want to kill muslims", and "this is for Tommy Robinson" as reported on by witnesses, eventually went and stabbed an asian teenager in a nearby Tesco car park.

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold stocks have repeated their decline once again yesterday while gold and silver soldier on. When will the miners take gold and silver down with them? Underperformance is a critical sign of weakness, there’s no denying that. Would today’s Fed policy pronouncements provide the spark? These are valid questions that we answer for our subscribers on an everyday basis. For you, dear visitor, we have explored everyone’s favorite subject: the CoT report. You won’t get a chance to get bored while waiting for the pieces of today’s puzzle to fall where they belong. While an evergreen, today from an angle you probably haven’t heard before anywhere else. Get wiser and benefit!

Having discussed the very recent developments, we would like to once again discuss the issue of the CoT reports and their predictive power. Once again, because we dedicated the very first analysis of this year to this matter. The bottom line is that CoT’s usefulness as a trading signal has decreased greatly over time and it’s not wise to read too much into it anymore. Our subscribers know the full reasoning already as we wanted to have something to link to whenever we receive more CoT-related questions and comments in order to put it all in the proper context. The thing that we will discuss today is what we recently received about the part of the CoT report – the money managers’ positions.