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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Friday, March 08, 2019

Gold and the Political Theater: Is The Tail Wagging the Dog? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

As the old saying goes, politics is a show business for ugly people. Fair enough, but what does it have to do with gold? Let’s jump right in and find out!

There Is No Trade War

Economic reports are rarely fun. But when we read the latest US trade report, we could not help but laugh. It turns out that the US goods and services deficit was $59.8 billion in December, up $9.5 billion, or almost 19 percent, from $50.3 billion in November. For 2018, the goods and services deficit was $621.0 billion, an increase of $68.8 billion or 12.5 percent, from 2017. In other words, despite Trump’s “America First” policies and trade wars, including tariffs aimed at shrinking the trade deficit, the US trade gap has widened. Actually, it surged to a 10-year high last year, as one can see in the chart below. As if that was not enough, the shortfall with China hit a record peak! Isn’t that funny?

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Economics

Friday, March 08, 2019

Is Recession Near? / Economics / Recession 2019

By: John_Mauldin

I trust Dave Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff. He’s been a perpetual speaker at my SIC conference for at least 10 years.

Dave is screaming recession every chance he gets, but he is not a perma-bear by any means.

He’s been bullish at the right times in the past. Dave turned uber-bullish 9 or 10 years ago. It was way outside the consensus at the time, but he has never cared much about being part of the consensus.

So while I don’t entirely agree with him this time, I pay attention.

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Companies

Friday, March 08, 2019

Elliott Wave Analysis of YY Inc (YY) / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: WavePatternTraders

The recent rally from the lows made in December 2018 appears to be in 3 waves, so I suspected it a 4th wave as part of either idea, at this stage, I would still expect to see a new low based on both of the ideas. The difference is that one idea will end an impulse wave (5 wave decline)  and complete the decline from the highs made in Jan 2018. The other idea would still see a bounce, however a new low thereafter would be favored.

I can see the pros and cons for both ideas, but I would turn more bullish from a new low as even the less bullish idea (idea 2) would imply a rally again for wave [4]. So it would present a bullish opportunity below the lows made in December around $54.00 - 49.00.
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Companies

Friday, March 08, 2019

Consumer Behavior: What you need to know to read your Audience / Companies / Retail Sector

By: Submissions

...

 


Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 07, 2019

The Exponential Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Were now into the 11th year of this ageing stocks bull market for which my underlying message for its duration has been the same, one of "the greater the deviation from the bull market peak then the greater the buying opportunity presented".

Whilst all bull markets eventually come to an end. However, that end ALWAYS tends to prove temporary, soon appearing as inconsequential blips on the long-term trend chart as the overall inflationary stock market trend is exponential! Which is why the Great Stock Market crashes of the past such as 1929 and 1987 are barely visible blips today.

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Housing-Market

Thursday, March 07, 2019

Millennial Home Buyers Not as Active as Boomers Were in US Property Market / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Harry_Dent

Andrea Riquier, my favorite commentator on the housing market, grabbed my attention again with her 2018 MarketWatch article entitled “Missing Millennial Homeownership Endangers the American Dream.” You can follow her on Twitter @ARiquier.

She pointed to a report from the Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center that suggests the “story of Millennials and homeownership is in many ways a story of inequality in America – and one that might be getting worse,” as she put it.

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Housing-Market

Thursday, March 07, 2019

How Will Boomers Affect US Real Estate and Nursing Homes / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Harry_Dent

Recently we talked about why Millennials aren’t buying a house at the same rate as their Boomer and Gen X parents. Today, let’s talk about how Boomers and Gen Xers are actually contributing to the housing shortage, and so driving up prices and thwarting the ability of younger people to buy.

And…

Why that could start to change rapidly just ahead.
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Politics

Thursday, March 07, 2019

How the New “Green Deal” Has Already Worked / Politics / Environmental Issues

By: Rodney_Johnson

If you have assets, income, or both, then you are responsible for every bad thing that has happened in the U.S. But don’t worry! The Green New Deal, co-sponsored by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Ed Markey, will give you a chance to fix it.

All you have to do is sign over, well, everything to the central government, which will then use its wisdom to determine how we should live for the foreseeable future so that all outcomes are equalized and no one is left behind.

Good-paying jobs? Check.

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Personal_Finance

Thursday, March 07, 2019

KIND Elevates Nut Butter Category with a Wholesome Recipe / Personal_Finance / Health and Fitness

By: Stefan Paulo

NEW YORK (March 6, 2019) – For the first time in its 15-year tradition of redefining and bettering snacking categories, KIND Healthy Snacks (KIND) entered the nut butter segment by releasing KIND® Nut Butter Filled Snack Bars.

“Since day one, KIND has been committed to upholding its brand promise -- to create innovative, premium foods that are both healthy and tasty,” says KIND’s CEO and Founder, Daniel Lubetzky. “KIND Nut Butter Filled Snack Bars continue that promise.”

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Currencies

Thursday, March 07, 2019

Brexit Does Not Stop Bitcoin’s Growth in the UK / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Submissions

The only thing that is certain in the UK right now is uncertainty, and this is causing fluctuations in the stock markets, as the British public awaits the ‘deal or no deal’ Brexit outcome with bated breath.

Despite the tumultuous and unprecedented period of change we are in, the value of cryptocurrency has not stopped growing. From Bitcoin to Ethereum and countless other cryptocurrencies that are now available (well over 1,000, and new ones being created all the time) the cryptocurrency market continues to grow, comparatively unhindered by current ructions in the Eurozone.

While many businesses keep their powder dry and await the Brexit outcome, cryptocurrency and blockchain start-ups achieved record breaking growth in 2018. The UK is currently dominating growth in tech start-ups across Europe, with £2.29 billion in total venture capital, exceeding that of Germany, which had £1.38 billion, and France, which had £1.03 billion.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 07, 2019

How Private Sector Debt Bubble Could Trigger the Next Financial Crisis / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The $22 trillion official national debt is a much discussed problem, even as politicians exhibit zero motivation to do anything about it. But as big an economic overhang as it is, government debt isn’t likely to trigger the next financial crisis.

Yes, servicing the growing federal debt bubble will depress GDP growth, cause the value of the dollar to drop, and raise inflation risks. But the bubble itself won’t necessarily burst – not anytime soon.

As long as politicians face no political consequences for deficit spending, and as long as the Federal Reserve keeps the Treasury bond market propped up… then many more trillions can be added to the national debt.

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Currencies

Thursday, March 07, 2019

A Plenty of Exciting Market Action in the Currencies Arena / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Nadia_Simmons

What an interesting day it’s today. After yesterday’s brief moment of serenity, many currency pairs are on the move now. Where to look first? Is it the euro? The action looks great and builds on our assumptions surely to your delight. Or are you more happy about today’s move in the Australian dollar? It’s such a pleasant sound to hear the cashiers’ bell ringing… Wait, we have more for you. What about opening a new promising position right now? Let’s dive in for all the details.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 07, 2019

What Commodities and Transportation Stocks Telling Us - Part2 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In Part I of this report we talked about and showed you what commodities and transports where doing in relation to each other. Here in Part II, we show you in detail what we expect to take place.

This final chart highlights our Custom Smart Cash Index (in BLUE) as well as the CBOE Commodity Index pricing levels (in RED).  This data goes all the way back to 2012 and highlights a number of key pricing rotations.  First, we can see that Commodities have been decreasing in total value from 2012 till mid-2017.  We can also identify a key support level that was established in the Commodities Index near the beginning of 2016 – coinciding just a month or so before the bottom in the Smart Cash Index.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 07, 2019

What Comes After a Trillion in Student Debt? / Interest-Rates / Student Finances

By: Jared_Dillian

Headline in Bloomberg the other day:

“Millennials Are Facing $1 Trillion in Debt.”

A trillion always sounds like a lot. It is a lot. But while the absolute number is large, that is not the issue.

The issue is what makes up this millennial debt. It’s mostly student loans, and a staggeringly high amount of these loans are in delinquency.

And this is at the top of an economic expansion!

On a societal level, imagine what happens if the economy takes a wrong turn and these student loans—which are already 10% delinquent—go to 40% delinquent?
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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 07, 2019

Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

It’s been almost 10 years since this bull market began. What an incredible run. Despite all the doom-and-gloom news reports, this bull market has been impressive. (And no, it’s not because of “evil government manipulation”).

To put this into perspective, someone who bought at the top in 2007 would still have doubled their money (after including dividends reinvested).

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Companies

Thursday, March 07, 2019

The Importance of Financial Planning for Companies / Companies / SME

By: Submissions

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 06, 2019

US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US Presidential cycle pattern has proved REMARKABLY ACCURATE in terms of flagging future stock market price action as an except from my last in depth look at stocks illustrates:

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018

The basic pattern for the US Presidential cycle is for a strong election year and post election year, followed by weak Mid-term then a strong pre-election year.

The trend to date is clearly continuing to prove remarkably inline with the US presidential cycle. Which does not bode well for the remainder of the 2018 i.e. implies stocks are going to remain stuck in this trading range for the WHOLE of 2018! Which is one of the reasons why I was bearish for the prospects for the stock market at the start of the year.

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 06, 2019

Gold and Gold Stocks Stop Short of Bull Market, Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The recent rally showed quite a bit of promise.

Gold stocks surged past their long-term moving averages while breadth indicators surpassed all prior bear market peaks (excluding 2016). 71% of the HUI and 81% of GDXJ closed above the 200-day moving average.

GDX and GDXJ looked to be on their way to $25 and $37, with Gold approaching $1360/oz and those breadth figures on the way to hitting 90%.

However, the stock market rebound pushed past its initial resistance and precious metals reversed course yet again before hitting those targets.

Other than 1985-1987 there has never been a bull market in precious metals without their simultaneous outperformance of the stock market.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 06, 2019

Stock Market’s Rally Slowing Down. Expect a Surge in Volatility? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market’s nonstop rally is slowing down, with the S&P 500 below its 10 day moving average for the first time in 41 days. The short-medium term outlook is mixed right now, with neither bulls nor bears having a strong edge (although there is a slight short term bearish lean). Meanwhile, there’s a >50% probability that volatility will spike in the next few weeks.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 06, 2019

Stock Market Beware The Ides Of March / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

While there is some religious significance in Roman culture, the Ides of March is best known as the date on which Julius Caesar was assassinated in 44 BC at a meeting of the Roman Senate.

At the time, a seer named Plutarch (some claim that the seer was named Spurinna) had warned that something would happen to Caesar by that date. For those that know their Shakespeare, on his way to the Theatre of Pompey, where he would be assassinated, Caesar supposedly passes the seer and joked “The Ideas of March are come,” implying that the prophecy had not been fulfilled, to which the seer replied “Aye, Caesar; but not gone.”

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