Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, December 08, 2007
Black Swans and Endogenous Uncertainty of the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Risk Analysis
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
- Ubiquity, Complexity Theory and Sandpiles
- Fingers of Instability
- A Stable Disequilibrium
- General Equilibrium with Endogenous Uncertainty
- Identity Theft and New York
How does the risk of default in California or Thailand get spread throughout the world, causing problem in money market funds in Europe and Florida? Yes, we can trace the linkages now, but was it possible to predict the crisis beforehand? And can we use what we learn to predict and hopefully hedge ourselves from the next crisis? Why do these things seem to be happening with more frequency? This week we are going to look at some economic theories which will give us some insight into the above questions. As it turns out, the more that individuals hedge their risk in economic markets - the larger the network - the more the entire system is put at risk. There is a lot of ground to cover, so we will jump right in.
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Saturday, December 08, 2007
Subprime Housing Crash Gets Political - The Big Five Year Mortgage Rate Freeze Plan / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The blame game is beginning and fingers are now being pointed at political appointees (usually given their jobs because of massive donations). Roland Arnall, founder of Ameriquest and current Ambassador to the Netherlands is a rather prominent target. “ Indeed, a host of class-action suits have been launched over the last two years which accuse the former Ameriquest of having engaged in predatory practices (the company was sold this year after it settled one suit for $325m, without acknowledging wrongdoing). Some American lawyers and subprime borrowers are now threatening to turn their fire on Mr Arnall as well – notwithstanding his current job in the Hague.”
Henry Paulson has a long and winding road ahead.
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Friday, December 07, 2007
Wall Street Once Again Resumes Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Regent_Markets
Wall Street resumed its rally this week after new data showed the overall economy is holding up, but isn't so strong as to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates says Betonmarket's Michael Wright. The Dow Jones industrial average saw an increase of nearly 200 points on Wednesday.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 06, 2007
End of the US Banking and Financial System / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Jim_Willie_CB
In the last month a tectonic shift has taken place among central bankers. To be sure, the USDollar is aided if foreign central banks end their march to raise official interest rates. The USDollar has been propped up for over two years in large part from powerful credit market carry trades that used to exploit higher USTreasury bond yields, both the short-term and long-term variety. The US Federal Reserve has been forced kicking and screaming to reduce official Fed Funds rates, all the while denying a grotesque contagion from the bond world to the bank world to the economy on Main Street . The USFed looks bound by the bond market to continue to cut interest rates, much like a large dog is led by a spiked choker around its neck, urged to obey its master's orders via vicious tugs. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 06, 2007
Mega Trends - What China and India's Nouveau Riche Want to Buy / Stock-Markets / Asian Economies
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes:The term "nouveau riche," or "new money," refers to people who, through rapid acquisition of wealth, now have the ability to buy things that were previously out of their reach.
In the U.S., it applies to individuals. But in Asia, it applies to entire nations .
So today, I want to talk about how people in India and China are going nuts for high-end consumer goods, especially jewelry.
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Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Bullish Profile for the Nasdaq Q's / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) exhibit a very bullish profile for the session and appear to be ready to resume strength into the final hour of trading after a period of two-way trading during the noon to 2 pm period. Should strength resume during the final hour, the pattern argues for a run at last Friday's high of 52.26. Only a decline that violates 51.00 will compromise the developing pattern.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Are the Current Stock and Financial Market Mania's about to Crash ? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: EWI
Stock Markets tend to periodically rally into dangerous financial manias, the problem that investors have is not in recognising that one is in an financial mania, but when the resulting bubble will burst with a stock market crash.
The recent rally in the global and US financial markets, including the Dow Jones, increasingly has all the hall marks of a financial mania according to Elliott Wave International analyst Peter Kendall. This distinction is important to recognize as the markets rise, because the manias always result in a CRASH that takes them back beneath their original starting point.
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Wednesday, December 05, 2007
United States For Sale - Who is Buying... / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: One of the catalysts for last week's stock market rally was the news that Citigroup received a $7.5-billion injection from the Gulf Arab emirate of Abu Dhabi. In exchange, Abu Dhabi now owns 4.9% of Citigroup.
That's on top of the 3.9% that Saudi Arabian Prince al-Waleed bin Talal already owned, which means that foreigners now own a huge chunk of one of America's largest and most prestigious banks.
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Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Warning - Don't Bet Against the Dow Jones Stock Market Index's Growth Spiral / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Investors should realise one important factor about the Dow 30 stock market index and other similar general multi-sector indices that are made up of a limited number of stocks. The Indices are designed to exhibit the long-term inflationary growth spirals. In that in the long-run the indices will always move to a new high! Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Stock Market Technicals Suggest Cascading Bear Market Coming / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
The three month daily chart below is showing a sell signal on momentum oscillators, an overbought “slow” stochastic, and an OBV buy signal that looks like it wants to abort.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
G7 Creating Rolling Asset Bubbles That Implode - Fingers of Instability, Part 14 / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Ty_Andros
In This Issue- 3 Fingers of Instability
- Moral Hazard, Herding Cats and Shades of Japan !
- Ghosts of Christmas “Future”
- Shocking News!
Introduction
The “fingers of Instability” series will be wrapped up next week (in the months and years ahead we will bring you short vignettes). It's been a fun and enjoyable mental exercise but it has now unfolded pretty much as outlined since it began. It is prelude to the next chapter in the unfolding demise of the G7 and its financial and monetary systems. But it has a long way to run (several decades in my estimation) and the opportunities are generational in scope. Wealth will shift from one group to another and change the face of the Globe.
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
S&P 500 Index Medium Term Cycles Analysis / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Jim_Curry
S&P 500 CASH Index S&P 500 Cash Index - 11/30/07 Close - 1481.14
SPX CASH: 5-Day Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1526; Low - 1444
DEC SP: 5-Day Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1528; Low - 1446
SPX CASH: Monthly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1513; Low - 1374
SPX CASH: Yearly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1531; Low - 1319
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Tuesday, December 04, 2007
The Money Panic - US Banks Huge Exposures To Credit Risk / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: With credit markets sinking into deeper turmoil ...
With more severe losses spreading to a wider range of financial institutions ...
And with the Fed's rate cuts thus far failing to stem the crisis ...
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Monday, December 03, 2007
Stock Markets Headed for a New All Time High / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market.
SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-yr cycle is approaching its mid-point and some of its dominant
components are topping and should soon restrain the bullish effect of the 4.5-yr. This could lead to
another period of consolidation in 2008 with an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate Trend - The intermediate-term trend which had been in a correction since the index reached 1576 has now resumed its up move.
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Monday, December 03, 2007
The Grinch Who Stole the Christmas Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: David_Petch
The following article was written one week ago, so it is possible the termination point of wave G was one week early. When broad market indices are in a bear market, sharp rallies that appear out of the blue (such as the sharp three day rally last week) are linked to short squeezes…this further confirms the S&P is still in a bear market. The rally last week terminated wave F, so wave G is now forming. If the labeling is correct, albeit one week early, Monday should be an up day in the S&P followed by a retracement of the last week's advance by 50-80% for the rest of next week. If a decline in wave G occurs, it will match the expected December 7-10 th rally point, albeit in a different wave structure. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 02, 2007
Stock Market Update: Trading By the Book / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
It's not easy trading against the crowd. It's tough to get long and put real money on the line when everywhere you go you hear about the market crashing, about a looming 3 rd wave down, about breakdowns, write downs, and basically the end of the bull market. But buy in the face of all that bearishness is exactly what we did at TTC for no other reason than that we tune out the rest and simply trade the charts.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 02, 2007
US Stock Markets Primed For a Meltdown / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
FedWatch: ``The degree of deterioration that has happened over the last couple of weeks is not something that I personally anticipated, '' Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said in response to a question following a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. ``We are going to have to take a look at'' the stress in credit markets ``when we meet in a couple of weeks,'' he said. I smell another rate cut. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 02, 2007
The Dow Theory Potential Sell Signal Update / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
By: Tim_Wood
In the previous November posting here I explained that in accordance to Dow's theory we had an important non-confirmation at play, which served as a warning that something was wrong. I also explained that we were then in what is known as a Sell Spot in anticipation of a Primary Trend change. On November 21, 2007 this Primary Trend change occurred. As a result, the “Stock Market Barometer,” as it was described by William Peter Hamilton back in the 1920's, is telling us that conditions are now stormy. This Primary Bear market will remain in force until negated by another confirmed bullish indication in accordance with Dow theory.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 01, 2007
Stock Markets Headed Higher Into New Year / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: · It is likely we saw an intermediate term low last Monday.
Short Term : As of last Wednesday everything turned sharply upward. Most importantly, new lows all but disappeared on both the NYSE and NASDAQ. This implies a lower risk profile for the next month or two.
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Saturday, December 01, 2007
Stock Markets Ignoring Subprime Housing Market Crash Fire Alarm / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
- The Financial Fire Trucks Are Gathering
- A Thanksgiving Fire Drill
- The Credit Markets Get Tighter
- Pushing on a String - the LIBOR Conundrum
- GDP Funny Business
- Europe, New York, and South Africa
The markets rebounded strongly this week, bouncing off a 10% drop in the previous weeks. Is it a signal of renewed economic vigor? Or is it a dead cat bounce? This week we take a look at problems at the edge of the economy which threaten to derail not only the recent robust growth (at least in the statistics) but also the markets. And we start with a personal story which I think will help us understand the current situation. Stay with me here.
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