Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, November 10, 2022
Stock Market Tight CPI Race / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 invalidated the key bull flag thesis laid out in yesterday‘s chart section, and both 3,815 and low 3,770s supports gave way. I think markets are positioning for too hot CPI beating expectations, in what results in a boat inordinately tilted the risk-off way, positioned for still accelerating inflation beyond the consensus 7.9% YoY. True, I‘m looking for a sticky figure likewise, but would be happy about 8.1% that still has the potential to generate some relief for risk-on assets.
In such a tight trading range pre-CPI, it‘s key to think in terms of upside and downside risks with their probabilities and advance clues – those to the upside on the CPI release prevail, no matter that I‘m not wildly optimistic about Nov, and I refuse the notion of Fed pivot or even pause as being anyhow near, not even just a couple of months away, no. This is what it means for the short-term S&P 500 path. Crucially, I‘m looking for a bright Dec, and not a great Nov monthly candle. As for today, these bullish cues simply can‘t be ignored in delivering a surprise to the sellers.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2022
Have We Begun A 20-Year Stocks Bear Market Already? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
Every week that I publish an article on the stock market, I attempt to show you some very glaring issues as to how the market presented to you by analysts and news reporters alike. Most of them will look at the market action, review the news, and then attribute a move in the market based upon a recent news event or economic report. And, if you read it carefully, some of it does not even make sense. Let me show you an example that I read this past week:
"Hong Kong stocks up 3% in Asia session as private survey shows China's factory activity contracted" – CNBC (The headline was changed by CNBC since originally published)
Read that very carefully. Then ask yourself if a contraction in factory activity is a “bullish” indication? Then it must lead you to the question as to how can the market rally in the face of such bearish news? Well, obviously, the market does not really care, does it?
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Tuesday, November 08, 2022
What the US Presidential Election Cycle Predicts for the Stock Market 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
There's a s a 100% probability that stocks will be higher than where they end in October. Whilst the average gain is 15%, the spread tends to be quite large in the range of +10% to +15% which therefore suggests that 2023 will be an up year for stocks. In fact we could see a powerful pre-emptive rally ahead of the Mid-terms from the current state of extreme pessimism. as illustrated by the MACD and sentiment indicator,
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Tuesday, November 08, 2022
What the US Presidential Cycle Predicts for the Stock Market Into 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is what I concluded a year ago in my September 2021 (Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022) analysis -
So the election year cycle favours a strong up year as Uncle Biden prints plenty of dollars for everyone to party, which is basically what we are experiencing. Though next year that Democrat performance slumps to just +0.6%! Which suggests this rally is a time to take profits and de risk, because 2022 according to the Presidential cycle could be weak!
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Monday, November 07, 2022
Stock Market Bullish Catalyst / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 volatile session Friday ended on a bright note, but the short-term clouds aren‘t over till Treasury yields stabilize. Actually given the heavy dollar downswing, stocks could have done a lot better – and I mean especially those multinationals with a high ratio of foreign earnings. Tech though merely complied with the almost obligatory upswing – it‘s the formerly leading $FAANG stocks that are still most vulnerable, and especially so when the year end tax loss selling kicks in in the final two weeks of December. An underperformer, simply put.
For now, markets were lifted by the ongoing speculation about possible China‘s zero covid policies easing, and that concerns especially those related stocks such as BABA or real assets. If I were to pick a single best thing to have happened Friday, it would be the rise in yield spreads on a reasonably positive advance-decline line move.
Now, let‘s look at the headline reversal – once the existing China policies were confirmed to be maintained, risk-off was expected to raise its head again, yet didn‘t get too far. Already before the open, we‘re trading above my 3,780s level marking the daily bias as either bullish above, or bearish (consolidation only unless confirmed by outside markets) below. Cryptos are likely to confirm limited downside potential today if you look at Bitcoin at $20,700 currently (lower knot in the making).
Thursday, November 03, 2022
Stocks and Inverted Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The yield curve has inverted which initially saw the stock market trade to a new bear market low following which entered into a powerful bull run, as has happened virtually every time that the yield curve has inverted i.e. initial stock market dips followed by a bull run that typically extends to over a year which the current price action looks set to replicate despite the recent double dip.
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Monday, October 31, 2022
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What to know what tends to drive the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).
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Monday, October 31, 2022
Sentiment Speaks: Amazon Killed The Stock Market On Friday / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
It really is entertaining watching people. Whether I am sitting outside in a public area and "people-watching" with my wife, whether I watch how people react to the market in the articles on Seeking Alpha (and that includes the writers and commenters), or whether I watch how people react even within the virtual walls of my own services, people are very interesting and their emotional responses are even more so.
We had a very interesting week this past week. And, it again outlined for me that people simply cannot overcome their emotions, especially when it comes to the stock market. So many of you are following the CPI, unemployment, GDP, etc. Yet, none of that has helped you on this rally. If anything, it has made you miss this 12% rally over the last two weeks. And, when the Amazon earnings came out, many of you were sure the market would surely drop.
Yet, as the market was developing a near term topping structure on Wednesday and Thursday, my primary analysis to the members of ElliottWaveTrader was suggesting the strong potential for a pullback before we continued higher to the 3900+ region, which was my next target for the SPX.
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Sunday, October 30, 2022
Can the Stock Market Hold Lows Despite Spiking Yields and Dollar Panic Buying? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
To break the June Low or not to break the June low, that is the question?
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Wednesday, October 26, 2022
Europe's Energy Sector: "The Lehman Moment Just Arrived" / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: EWI
This company's stock price "broke a support shelf that dates back 14 years"
Back in October 2021, two months before Germany's DAX hit an all-time high, our Global Market Perspective showed a big jump in references to "Lehman" in Bloomberg News.
Of course, the use of "Lehman" in a news article has become synonymous with the collapse of the then financial giant during the depths of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
The October 2021 Global Market Perspective, an Elliott Wave International monthly publication which covers 50-plus worldwide financial markets, said:
The Lehman moment will come later, after investor optimism has receded and stock prices are well off their highs.
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Tuesday, October 25, 2022
Inflation and Interest rates Implications for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So inflation is not going significantly lower anytime soon, interest rates are still trending higher which does not bode well for the outlook for stocks. And then on top of that we have a weakening economy, STAGFLATION! Definitely not a time for investors to contemplate gambling on no earnings, even high multiples growth stocks. For the indices, it means downwards price pressure and then followed by a trading range..
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Tuesday, October 25, 2022
Fate of Stock Market Q4 Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Sumeet_Manhas
S&P 500 turnaround was driven by the WSJ article that painted 75bp Nov and 50bp Dec hikes as some kind of a pivot, when it‘s not even a pause. While I had been for weeks of the opinion that this is the most likely route they‘ll take, markets have started favoring 75bp in Dec, and its possibility has been on Friday dialed back to 50% only. That‘s hardly a pause or pivot to me, but the speculation was enough to carry risk-on sentiment reliably into the close.
What I am questioning is whether sustainable bottoms can be made on such a news – even sustainable only in terms of giving rise to a reliable Q4 rally. Not when long-dated Treasuries still haven‘t found a bottom as foreigners are forced to sell in dramatic reversion of seemingly forever trade surpluses and high energy prices, which in case of natural gas can‘t be as regionally comparable as in oil. Together with the Fed balance sheet shrinking, this has implications for the debt markets, which I discussed both in mid Sep and in the above linked article.
The turn in junk bonds is fine for the bulls, but similarly to the S&P 500, it‘s still characterized by a pattern of lower highs after the summer rally fizzled out. It‘s only the Russell 2000 which has managed to keep above the Jun lows – and that confirms the rightful conclusion that the U.S. are best positioned at the moment still to weather the storm. What has become concerning on Friday though, is the dollar‘s daily session – not even sharply higher yields have worked to keep it afloat.
Sunday, October 23, 2022
Stock Market Choppy But Bearish / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 turned once again decisively lower yesterday, and the slow grind to the upcoming local bottom continues on rising volume – and that‘s good. Crucially, bonds continued supporting the move – as the key trio on my watch (those always shown in bond charts), reversed intraday. Higher yields are generally supportive of the dollar, and put pressure especially on precious metals, no surprises here (been issuing mostly bearish daily outlooks in PMs for months already), with oil remaining relatively best insulated among commodities.
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Sunday, October 23, 2022
The Fed is forced to pay you to Stay Safe / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
As the Fed fights the last war (on inflation) the result is a rare thing; a bear market haven called cash, paying increasing income
Safety Vehicles
Gold: For long-term financial security. Real gold, not ETFs, not allocated gold trusts that you can never actually possess (if you, like me, are not spectacularly wealthy) and certainly not gold mining equities.* Just gold. It’s so simple as to be overlooked by all too many, probably because it pays no income and just sits there over decades holding value.
Cash: Unlike other bear markets in equities over the last few decades when the Fed throttled savers with the likes of Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) at the first signs of trouble for asset owners, today’s Fed is commanded to clean up the mess it was primary in making during the last asset market bailout (H1, 2020), in a battle against inflation’s lagging indicators (e.g. CPI) and headlines (picture the public manning its pitchforks and torches) as cash pays increasingly higher income.
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Saturday, October 22, 2022
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What to know what tends to drive the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).
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Saturday, October 22, 2022
Here's Why This Stocks Bear Market is a "Global Story" / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
"The decline started in emerging market stocks way back in February 2021"
A widely accepted measure of a bear market is a drop of 20% or more in a major index from an all-time high.
By that measure, both the S&P 500 index and the Dow Industrials have entered bear market territory since their January peaks.
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Saturday, October 22, 2022
4 Best Investment Plans for Medium Term / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Mark_Adan
Medium-term goals can be a great motivator. They can give you something to focus on in the present moment and help you to stay on track. However, it is important to choose an investment option that will not be too volatile. This way, you can be sure that your money will be there when you need it. Some of the most common medium-term goals include saving for your wedding or down payment of a house. If you're wondering what the best investment options are that will help you achieve your medium-term goals, this list should help. Find the best trading app UK here.
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Friday, October 21, 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Which brings us to this BEAR market where my strategy has been NOT to seek to buy the bottom because we will only ever see the bottom in hindsight, instead my strategy has been to buy deep discounts in target stocks which has transformed my portfolio from this in January 2022 -
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Thursday, October 20, 2022
Stock Markets WORST Month of the Year Could Deliver a Buying Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We have a Dogs dinner of a Tory government, waste of space Quasi Modo has gone, next will be Liz Trustless what a pair of idiots, Hunt as Chancellor is only good for reading scripts he gets given! Come on Boris come back, all is forgiven, what was the worst under Johnson? Parties, the media wasted thousands of hours of air time on parties! MSM Is an irrelevance, dumb, blind, completely clueless after all they are Journalists NOT analysts, they don't have a clue! Quasi has gone, so will Trussless and it could even be as soon as today! Definitely before the end of October, she will be GONE! GOOD RIDDANCE to Britain's worst Prime Minister ever! And paving the way for Britain's first brown Prime Minister!
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Tuesday, October 18, 2022
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I must be a sucker for punishment to try and conclude my detailed 1+ year trend forecast at a time of maximum market uncertainty where major nations such as the UK are literally finding themselves on the brink of financial collapse! No really the UK financial system was a hairs breadth away from collapsing as it's pension funds that had GAMBLED ON INTEREST RATE DERIVATES with US rate hikes triggering a COLLAPSE in UK Bonds as Pension funds were forced to sell their most liquid assets, and the more UK bonds fell the more the pension funds were being forced to sell so as to meet MARGIN CALLS on their interest rate bets, which in effect was Britain's Lehman's moment prompting the Bank of England to BAIL THEM OUT by announcing that they would buy an UNLIIMITED amount of UK bonds so as to bring yields back down and thus push the capital value of Pension Funds UP so as to halt the forced selling that would have resulted in the Pensions funds defaulting and making the counterparty to their bets BANKRUPT! Yes you guessed it the BANKS BANKRUPT AGAIN! WALL STREET, LOMBARD STREET, CANARY WHARF, BERLIN! BANKRUPT! This is why whenever a patron mentions that the banks are cheap I tend to reply that you do know what they have gambled on until they explode!
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