Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, March 06, 2014
The Deflationary Effects of the Crashing Stock Market Kress Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
Stocks came under selling pressure on Monday in the wake of renewed concerns over geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe. An escalation of tension between Russia and the Ukraine led to a plunge in Russia’s stock market, which in turn had a spillover effect on U.S. equities.Russia is currently the focus of Wall Street’s worries right now. One of the better proxies for Russia’s stock market is the Market Vectors Russia ETF Trust (RSX), which lost nearly 7% in value on Monday. RSX made a 4-year low today which underscores the political and economic troubles facing that region of the globe.
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Thursday, March 06, 2014
The Stock Market’s New Normal: A Wall of Worry / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
While I realize that fundamentals are important to investment success I also appreciate the relevance of technical analysis in gauging investor sentiment and in timing entry and exit points.From the technical point of view the market is in a strong bull trend and would appear to be poised to reach new highs. However, when I research into the fundamental reason behind this strength I find little to support it other than the actions of the FED. To explain what I mean I attach 5 charts from two different sources. They outline real underlying weakness. Thus while I am fully invested in equities at the moment I have hard sell stops in place and I am prepared to quickly and solidly go short should my key technical positions break-down on high volume.
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Thursday, March 06, 2014
Roubini: How I'd Invest $1 Million Right Now - Not Bitcoin or Stocks / Stock-Markets / Investing 2014
Nouriel Roubini has been known as Dr. Doom since he predicted the 2008 financial crisis, but Roubini feels it's time for a new nickname. He thinks "Dr. Realist" is a better fit. So Bloomberg Television wanted to know if the self-proclaimed "Dr. Realist" would ever invest in riskier assets like Bitcoin (which he calls a Ponzi scheme) or even stocks.
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Thursday, March 06, 2014
Stock Market Quiet Day..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The bulls will take a quiet day after yesterday's big move up. There were some bad economic reports this morning, especially on the services side of the economy, barely holding above the flat line that separates growth and recession. The market is just not seeing the type of economic growth one would have expected by now when you consider the measures taken over the past few years by the Fed. One can only imagine how bad things would be if they hadn't done anything. The good news for the market is the Fed Yellen won't be raising rates any time soon. They are also unlikely to pull all the liquidity out of the system any time in the near future. That may be slowed down for a while.
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Thursday, March 06, 2014
Full-Spectrum War, Peak Complexity, and Real Assets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Not so long ago — say when the Soviet Union was crushing rebellions in Czechoslovakia and Hungary in the 1960s or the US was invading half the Middle East in the 2000s — a big country picking on a small one was mostly a physical activity. Tanks would roll in, buildings and people would be blown up, and that would be that. The aggressor might face the occasional trade sanction from otherwise-impotent “powers,” but this was relatively painless in a world that was not yet financially or technologically integrated.
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Thursday, March 06, 2014
Stock Market Bombs Away, 2011 Crash All Over Again / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Over the past few weeks I have been watching the DOW and Transportation index closely because it looks and feels like the Dow Theory may play out this year and the stock market could take a 15% haircut.
But what if you skipped on the haircut and opted for a 40% refund? What? Keep reading to find out how.
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Wednesday, March 05, 2014
Putin's Move Into Ukraine 'Out Of Weakness / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Roger Altman, Chairman of Evercore Partners, spoke with Bloomberg TV's Betty Liu today to discuss a number of topics including the situation in Ukraine, mergers and acquisitions in 2014, and the Moelis IPO.
On Moelis, Atlman said, "I don't see any reason why this won't be successful and why the public markets won't be hospitable to Moelis...[the] timing is reasonably good."
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Wednesday, March 05, 2014
Fears Settle And Stocks Soar! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Joshua Rodriguez writes: Over the recent past, we’ve watched as tensions escalated between Russia and the Ukraine. As tensions rose, we watched stocks plummet. However, the day was saved Tuesday as tensions between the Ukraine and Russia finally eased. Tuesday brought great news for investors as the DOW soared 228 points or 1.4%. That’s the biggest gain the DOW has seen all year! The DOW wasn’t the only market to enjoy the frenzy either. Nasdaq had a gain of almost 1.8% while S&P 500 hit record highs.
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Wednesday, March 05, 2014
Ukraine Fears Were a Stock Market Buying Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short: Today, as far as the world markets were concerned, the Crisis in Ukraine evaporated, and yesterday’s anxieties, in retrospect, were a buying opportunity. The EURO STOXX 50, which plunged 3.02% on Monday, rose 3.02% today. The S&P 500 surged at the opening bell and drifted to its 1.65% intraday high about 15 minutes before the close. A bit of selling trimmed the gain for the day to 1.53%, the biggest one-day advance for the index since December 18th. And of course today’s close set another record high.
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Wednesday, March 05, 2014
All Market Eyes Are on Ukraine…and the Thermometer / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Kent Moors writes: The weather is taking a decidedly better turn here in London this morning.
It’s a good thing, because all of the talk today in British circles is about the deteriorating situation in Ukraine.
These concerns involve the all too obvious geopolitical impacts of a Russian takeover of Crimea and perhaps a broader swath of Eastern Ukraine.
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Tuesday, March 04, 2014
Ukraine Crisis: RTS Russia Stock Market What's Next? / Stock-Markets / Russia
Social mood is another term for the shared inclination of a society. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a dramatic example of social mood in action.
Editor's note: You'll find a text version of this article below the video.
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Tuesday, March 04, 2014
Stock Market QE - And the Band Plays On / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Quantitative Easing (QE) is no longer a surprise, but the fact that it's continued for so long is. Like many Miller’s Money readers, I believe the government cannot continue to pay its bills by having the Federal Reserve buy debt with newly created money forever. This has gone on much longer than I'd have ever dreamed possible.
Unemployment numbers dropped in December and the Federal Reserve tapered their money creation from $85 billion to $75 billion per month. Why did the unemployment rate drop? Primarily because people whose benefits have expired are no longer considered unemployed. The government classifies them as merely discouraged, but the fact remains that they don't have jobs.
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Tuesday, March 04, 2014
Political Gamesmanship Allows the Stock Market to Morph / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
A political chess game is being played between Putin and the West. Of course, this has sent the futures soaring, but not to new highs…yet. Of course nothing has changed on the ground in the Ukraine.
This gamesmanship has the ability to change the pattern of the markets, as well. Not everyone is confident that the Russians are really backing down. If the market fails to make a new high, then the pattern on the chart will be the correct one.
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Tuesday, March 04, 2014
Stock Market and U.S. Mid-Term Election Years / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
Mid-term election years are typically poor performers for most of the year until finding a bottom in the fall and beginning a rally which lasts well into the following pre-election year.
The traditional approach to seasonality during a mid-term election year (chart) shows the final high (prior to the long period of under-performance) in April.
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Tuesday, March 04, 2014
Stock Market Rally Pauses as Markets Watch the Crisis in Ukraine / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short: Today’s major economic news, the Personal Income and Outlays for January and ISM Manufacturing, was of little interest to the market, which was exclusively focused on the crisis in Ukraine. Before the US markets opened, most Asian indexes had closed lower, and the selloff in Europe was worse. The EURO STOXX 50 index subsequently closed with a 3.02% loss. The S&P 500 opened lower and sold off to its -1.35% intraday low at lunchtime. Some buying during the afternoon trimmed the closing loss to 0.74%.
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Tuesday, March 04, 2014
Russia Stock Market Excuse To Sell..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Mr. Putin has taken some aggressive action moving into the Ukraine. It seems highly unlikely he'll do too much since he's getting tremendous political global pressure. But the very fact that he's taken action is a built in excuse for the market to sell based on sentiment. If sentiment wasn't an issue we would likely have gone green today. Markets don't take these issues too seriously when it seems doubtful it will escalate into anything too serious. Of course, if the market thought it could become something uglier it wouldn't matter what type of market we're in right now. It would sell, but that doesn't seem to be the case here. The market could definitely use a pause in the action. That said, you don't get bearish just because we need something. You don't know when that issue of removing too much bullish behavior will take place.
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Monday, March 03, 2014
Investors Should Heed Markets; Not Fed Apologists / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Investors are currently receiving mixed messages regarding the ramifications resulting from the Fed’s exit of debt monetization. Officials from the Federal Reserve are assuring market participants that there will be a smooth transition from the central bank’s manipulation of long-term interest rates. But markets are reaching a completely different conclusion.
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Monday, March 03, 2014
Stocks to Gap Down at the Open / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The early morning futures declined to the upper trendline of the Bearish Wedge and Short-0term support at 1841.00. It is currently hovering at 1846.00 (cash) and is likely to continue its decline after the open.
Crossing the trendline would give the SPX sell signal sometime this morning.
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Monday, March 03, 2014
Government Plan to Raid Your Savings And What to Do About It / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2014
Peter Krauth writes: I recently came across a headline that made me do a double-take... for all the wrong reasons.
It reminded me of what happened with the bailout in Cyprus... and appears to be looming again in Europe.
What's more, it bears an uncanny resemblance to what President Obama proposed in his latest State of the Union with his MyRA "plan."
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Monday, March 03, 2014
Was Friday a Stock Market Reversal Signal? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the Fed policy of keeping interest rates low has severely curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - New uptrend still in doubt
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