Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, December 02, 2013
Stock Market Rally Stretched to its Limit / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - An important top formation is in the making.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, December 02, 2013
How Long Will the “Miracle on Wall Street” Stock Market Rally Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: DailyGainsLetter
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: As the key stock indices are going higher, there’s a growing concern among investors that we are reaching a top. There’s a significant amount of noise that says the key stock indices are running on nothing but free money and the fundamentals that drive them higher are dead. We’re hearing that it’s all going to fall soon.
To some degree, I agree that easy money has a hand in the rise of key stock indices, and that current corporate earnings aren’t all that impressive. However, while observing the markets over time, I have learned that tops and bottoms are not easy to predict; in fact, it’s impossible. That’s because it isn’t clear when they happen and they can only be identified once they have been made.
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Monday, December 02, 2013
Stock Market Rally Accelerates / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short. Seven of the eight indexes in my international focus group posted gains over the past week. After three weeks as the worst performer, India’s SENSEX topped the latest list with a 2.84% surge. Germany’s DAXK came in second with a 2.02% gain for the week. The S&P 500 finished seventh with a fractional 0.06% weekly gain to finish next to last, but that was enough to register the eighth consecutive positive weekly close, the longest stretch since the nine weeks in early 2004. The UK’s FTSE 100 was the sole loser, with a modest 0.36% decline.
Sunday, December 01, 2013
Ben Bernanke Financial Crisis Hero? / Stock-Markets / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: John_Mauldin
The true measure of a career is to be able to be content, even proud, that you succeeded through your own endeavors without leaving a trail of casualties in your wake. – Alan Greenspan
If economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people on a level with dentists, that would be splendid. – John Maynard Keynes
And He spoke a parable to them: "Can the blind lead the blind? Will they not both fall into the ditch?" – Luke 6:39-40
Six years ago I hosted my first Thanksgiving in a Dallas high-rise, and my then-90-year-old mother came to celebrate, along with about 25 other family members and friends. We were ensconced in the 21st floor penthouse, carousing merrily, when the fire alarms went off and fire trucks began to descend on the building. There was indeed a fire, and we had to carry my poor mother down 21 flights of stairs through smoke and chaos as the firemen rushed to put out the fire. So much for the advanced fire-sprinkler system, which failed to work correctly.
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Saturday, November 30, 2013
Stock Market Normal Bull or Bubble Bull? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Tony_Caldaro
After making a new high at the open on Monday the market pulled back a bit, then bounced off that high for two more days. After the holiday the market opened above the high, rallied to SPX 1814, then pulled back in the last hour of trading. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.1%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.8%, and the DJ World index was +0.3%. On the economic front positive reports finally outpaced negative reports for the week. On the downtick: pending home sales, consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and the Chicago PMI. On the uptick: building permits, Case-Shiller, the FHFA, consumer sentiment, leading indicators, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims improved. Next week will be incredibly busy highlighted by: Q3 GDP, the monthly Payrolls, and the FED’s beige book.
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Is Bitcoin a Ponzi Scheme? / Stock-Markets / Bitcoin
By: Gary_North
I hereby make a prediction: Bitcoins will go down in history as the most spectacular private Ponzi scheme in history. It will dwarf anything dreamed of by Bernard Madoff. (It will never rival Social Security, however.)
To explain my position, I must do two things. First, I will describe the economics of every Ponzi scheme. Second, I will explain the Austrian school of economics’ theory of the origin of money. My analysis is strictly economic. As far as I know, it is a legal scheme — and should be.
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Saturday, November 30, 2013
The Economist's Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Fred_Sheehan
The disintegration of central banking shifted to overdrive in November. The Senate Banking Committee's listless accreditation of Janet Yellen as next Fed chairman was not a surprise, but it was notable that vigorous critics of Chairman Bernanke, such as Senator Bob Corker, dozed through the hearing. When the bubble of all bubbles bursts, and the Senate and Congressional oversight committees fulminate at central bankers, it will be those politicians who should sit in the dock. They could have acted. Instead, the Senate is whisking Bernanke-Squared to the throne, as quickly and quietly as possible.
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Stock Market All-Time Intraday High Fades at the Finish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short. On a light day of post-Thanksgiving trading, the S&P 500 opened higher and rallied to its mid-morning intraday high, up 0.35%, which set a new all-time intraday high for the index. Action moved sideways until the lunch hour, selling dropped the index to its 0.18% intraday low, which was subsequently trimmed to a 0.08% loss at the 1 PM early close.
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Financial and Commodity Market Movers into 2014 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: DeepCaster_LLC
“The World is Getting Closer to that End Game Every Day,” Jim Rickards, “Currency Wars, The Making of the Next Global Crisis”
Powerful Forces Extrinsic to the Markets will determine Key Market Moves over the next few months and beyond. We identify certain of those here and indicate how they are likely to affect the Markets.
For example, “Fundamentals,” Technicals, and Interventionals all now point to an Impending (extrinsically generated) Big Move to Climax in one Key Sector, which we identified in our December Letter.
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Saturday, November 30, 2013
How My Time in Jail Helped Me Understand The Global Economy / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: David_Hague
Dear reader, I must apologize for the dearth of my commentaries that are my attempt to help us interpret the complex global economic issues that bedevil our return to a normal, stable sustainable, sensible, state of global economic tranquility. My recent incarceration [more on that later] has made access to a computer somewhat problematic.
I was overwhelmed by the absurdity
Truthfully I have tried many times in recent months to apply my limited intelligence and nascent journalistic skills to analyze the current state of affairs. Each time I sat at my computer and prepared to put finger to keyboard, I was overwhelmed by the absurdity of our situation.
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Friday, November 29, 2013
Stock Market Euphoria During Troubled Times / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Stephen_Lendman
Major equity markets approach nosebleed levels. Experts disagree on whether bubble extremes approach. They’re not unusual. They happen often.
The myth about markets reflecting reality is hokum. Keynes once warned about “enterprise becom(ing) the bubble on a whirlpool of (destructive) speculation.” Hard times usually follows.
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Stock Market Rally the Biggest Case of “Financial Engineering” in History? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes: Key stock indices are roaring higher each day. The S&P 500 is breaking through to new records; the Dow Jones Industrial Average sits above the 16,000 level, and the NASDAQ Composite Index trades at a level not seen since the Tech Boom. Sadly, as all of this happens, the one fundamental that has historically driven stock prices higher—corporate earnings—is missing from the equation.
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Thursday, November 28, 2013
FOMC Open Letter - Recognizing the Valuation Bubble In Stock Market Equities / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: John_Mauldin
In today's Outside the Box, my friend John Hussman of Hussman Strategic Advisors addresses the members of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve committee that makes decisions about interest rates and national monetary policy. The Fed has been notoriously clueless about bubbles, particularly in the run-up to the Great Recession, and so John would like to help them recognize the currently inflating bubble in equities.
He leads off with the key point that when the Financial Accounting Standards Board abandoned the FAS 157 "mark-to-market" accounting standard on March 16, 2009, in response to Congressional pressure from the House Committee on Financial Services, the FASB removed at a stroke the threat of widespread insolvency by making insolvency opaque. In other words, anyone with anything to hide could now hide it. John goes on:
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Thursday, November 28, 2013
Riding The Profitable Wave, Stocks Secular Bull Market? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
By: Puru_Saxena
BIG PICTURE – The world’s economy is growing at a tepid pace and the majority of central banks are pursuing expansionary monetary policies. Furthermore, the central banks of the developed world are engaged in unprecedented asset purchases and it appears as though this ‘stimulus’ will continue for the foreseeable future.
Today, the US unemployment rate is well above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 6.5% and the official Consumer Price Index is below the 2% level. Under these circumstances, it is hardly surprising that the Federal Reserve is continuing with its US$85 billion per month bond buying program.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Stock Markets Are on the Edge and So Are People / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I suspect that the sell-off in the last 20 minutes of the day may have been nothing more than traders taking their trades off the table so that they could enjoy an early Thanksgiving weekend.
But if that is the case, it shows just how thin and vulnerable the market is right now. Tomorrow will likely be another thinly traded day and we may see yet another episode like this, or worse, as even more traders prepare for the weekend.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Stock Market All-Time High Gets Punctured Near the Close / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short. Today the Nasdaq stole the show with its first close above 4,000 since September 7th, 2000. Quick sidebar: The Nasdaq hit its all-time closing high of 5,048.62 six months earlier on March 10. Meanwhile today, after setting an all-time intraday high, the S&P 500 closed with a miniscule 0.01% gain. The index survived shrugged off this morning’s weak consumer confidence. So what triggered the late day selling? Bloomberg almost never fails to offer an explanation (however lame): “investors rebalanced portfolios.”
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Stock Market Fundamentals Rendered Irrelevant by Fed Actions / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: J_W_Jones
The fundamental backdrop behind the ramp higher in equity prices in 2013 is far from inspiring. However, fundamentals do not matter when the Federal Reserve is flooding U.S. financial markets with an ocean of freshly printed fiat dollars.
As we approach the holiday season, retail stores are usually in a position of strength. However, this year holiday sales are expected to be lower than the previous year based on analysts commentary and surveys that have been completed. This holiday season analysts are not expecting strong sales growth. However, in light of all of this U.S. stocks continue to move higher.
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Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Janet Yellen Is Close to Making History - Market Psychology Appears Near A Major Turn / Stock-Markets / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: EWI
Janet Yellen just moved closer to her place in history when the Senate Banking Committee approved her nomination to lead the Federal Reserve. The full Senate is expected to confirm. If so, she will be the first chairwoman in the central bank's 100 year history.
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
The Biggest Stock Market Bubble in History? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes:
The only thing keeping the stock market alive is the easy money that is indirectly being pumped into it by the Federal Reserve, nothing else. The fundamentals for the market are dead in the water.
Here, I present five indicators that point to high risk for key stock indices.
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Fractional Stock Market Decline, But Still Above 1,800 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short. The S&P 500 closed the day with a fractional loss of 0.13% but remains above the 1,800 benchmark. Meanwhile, its elderly cousin the Dow set another all-time high with a tiny 0.05% gain, and the Nasdaq hit an intraday high above 4,000. However, this benchmark, last seen in the year 2000, didn’t hold to today’s closing. Tomorrow and Wednesday we get some significant economic news, but the only report today was the 10AM Pending Home Sales, which, despite coming in a bit below expectations, didn’t much phase the market. Today’s intraday range of 0.42% was only at the 7th percentile of the 228 market days in 2013.