Best Financial Markets Analysis Article Let's have a look at the pattern developing in the iShares Brazil ETF (EWZ). Forgetting for a moment that this is a chart of the Brazilian country ETF, what should we do with this chart pattern? Let¹s understand that many charts look like this one: IFN (India), FXI (China), EWH (Hong Kong) just to mention a few. So, do we treat the Nov-June upmove as a completed recovery phase against the BIG bear market?

If we do, then the decline from the 6/11 high at 58.72 into this week¹s low at 49.39 likely represents the initial downleg of a new bear phase or at least a return trip into key support in the vicinity of 42.00-40.00.

On the other hand, should we treat the Nov-June advance as an incomplete bull phase that for the month of June is resting/digesting prior to a resumption of strength that is destined next to climb to the 64.50 area, which represents the 50% recovery price of the entire prior bear phase?

Right here both my pattern and momentum work are telling me to treat the EWZ as a rangebound market that will hit resistance next as it approaches 55.00. Support resides at 51.00. Once the rangebound situation resolves itself, I am expecting a loop down that breaks 51-50 on the way to 45.00.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon, who use the service for guidance on both specific trades as well as general market direction

© 2002-2009 MPTrader.com, an AdviceTrade publication. All rights reserved. Any publication, distribution, retransmission or reproduction of information or data contained on this Web site without written consent from MPTrader is prohibited. See our disclaimer.

Mike Paulenoff Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.