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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Housing Market Price trends

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Housing-Market

Monday, September 02, 2019

US Housing Market House Prices Trend Forecast Current State / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's been a while since my last analysis of the US housing market, in fact a full 3 years, preceded by my original 3 year trend forecast covering November 2012 to early 2016 that forecast a strong a bull market against expectations at the time (and for many subsequent years), for it's forgotten today that in the aftermath of the financial crisis the prevailing view was that the US housing market was dead for a generation, and this not just from the usual perma doom merchants (I don't like to name names but you know who they are!) but was consensus view at the time.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

How Brexit Will Affect House Prices in 2019 / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Submissions

Three years ago, the UK public voted to exit the European Union. Since this was an outcome that only a few people expected, it had a dramatic outcome with David Cameron, the prime minister, resigning with immediate effect. The vote caused a stir in the financial markets.

A few weeks after the results, the pound sterling was still weak, and the economy, in general, was on the verge of going from bad to worse. Many business leaders who were benefiting from the stable UK economy started to fear that they would soon encounter a critical financial crush. These were the very first indicators of the negative impact that Brexit had on the economy.

Now it’s been two years since Brexit, and the financial crisis that most sceptics used to talk about is yet to happen. Though there has been a long waited expectation of economic breakdown, the UK still seems to be a good place that investors can confidently park their money and yield impressive returns.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Friday, August 23, 2019

Is the Fed Too Late Prevent A US Housing Bear Market? / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

So, the reality is that based on our modeling system and our research, there are only two ways that the US Fed (and likely the global central banks) can navigate out of this inflation killing debt glut that has sunk the global markets into a quicksand-like economic malaise; either A. reduce debts dramatically across the board (all nations) in an attempt to allow for some level of future growth/inflation opportunity, or B. find a way to push GDP out levels to 2x (or higher) that of current debt levels.  A is much more difficult to negotiate and navigate – but it may be an option sometime in the future.  B is the more likely option with a transition into some type of new 21st-century economic model that assists in advancing the build-it, sell-it model.

In the last, Part II, a section of our research, we showed you a chart of our US Fed modeling system and where we believe the US Fed should be targeting rates currently.  The one thing that was a bit different than our original model, created in 2013, was the election of President Trump and the EU, US/China trade wars.  This could complicate things a bit in the future, but overall the model continues to perform well.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Fed Too Late To Prevent US Real Estate Market Crash? / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In Part I of this research, we highlighted the Case-Shiller index of home affordability and how it relates to the US real estate market and consumer economic activity going forward.  We warned that once consumers start to shift away from an optimistic view of the economy, they typically shift into a protectionist stance where they attempt to protect wealth, assets and risk of loss while attempting to weather the economic storm.

We’ve seen this happen in 2008-09 as well as after the 9/11 attacks in the US in 2001.  The process is always somewhat similar.  Consumers start to react to pricing levels that are unaffordable and do so by trying to skimp on extraneous purchases like travel, new cars, credit card debt or other items that are not essential.  The other thing that happens is that the lower tier borrowers (the “at-risk borrowers”) typically begin to become delinquent on debts and fall behind on their mortgage payments.  This is how the process starts.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Fed Too Late To Prevent A US Housing Market Crash? / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Real Estate is one of the biggest purchases anyone will make in their lifetime.  It can account for 30x to 300x one’s annual income and take over 30 years to pay off.  After you’re done paying for your property, now you have to keep paying to maintain it and to support the property taxes to keep it.  What has happened to the US Real Estate market since the 2008-09 global credit market collapse and is the US Fed behind the curve?

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

One of the most common indicators used to measure national housing affordability and price trend is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  In this chart, we are displaying the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index – including all markets in the US.  It is fairly easy to see that in last 2016, on a national level, the Case-Shiller index had reached the 2006 peak level.  After that, the new Trump economy pushed it even higher where we now near 210.  This is a very uncommon level for this index and because we are in uncharted territory with this 210 ranking, it should concern everyone that a reversion maybe somewhere in our future.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

How to Play Interest Rates in US Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Rodney_Johnson

I can walk into a car dealership and drive away with a moving asset worth more than $130,000 in less than an hour. However, if I want to buy – or sell – an immovable object that’s always right where you left it, then I have to go through a million hoops.

Home Sale And Home Purchase

Clearly, I’m frustrated with the latest twist in my home sale and purchase saga.

Everything started out pretty good. We listed the house, had a fair number of showings, no real bites, so lowered the price. And we negotiated with one couple, but before we settled on a number, another group jumped in and out-bid them. We came to an agreement and started the option/inspection/negotiation/appraisal process.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

UK House Building and House Prices Trend Forecast / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK House Building 20 Years Shortfall

The Tory government has once more pledged to build 300,000 homes per year to address Britain's chronic housing crisis which is set against the current pace of construction of about 200,000 homes per year. However, every government of the past 20 years has made similar promises to increase house building to targets of anywhere between 250,000 to 400,000 homes per year and ALL have FAILED to deliver! Every house building manifesto promise BROKEN! That's by Labour, Coalition, Tories, and our current DUP/Remain barely able to open a tin of beans government. So the first message is to take government house building targets with a giant pinch of salt!

However, against this consistent mantra of increasing house building is the reality of the real agenda which is actually not to increase house building to meet demand but rather one of leveraging house prices as being one of the primary drivers of the UK economy and thus the chances for electoral success, so forget opinions polls it is house prices that are one of the most accurate predictors for the outcome of UK general elections.

UK House Prices the Most Accurate General Election Forecast Predictor

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Saturday, July 20, 2019

US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the final analysis in my US housing market series that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast.

  • Current State
  • Momentum Analysis
  • US ECONOMY - GDP
  • Unemployment
  • Inflation
  • Producer Prices Index
  • Yield Curve
  • US Debt
  • QE4EVER!
  • DEMOGRAPHICS
  • US Home Builders Index (XHB)
  • US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
  • US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
  • Peering into the Mists of Time
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Part1 (UK House Building 20 Years Shortfall). The below graph shows the UK annual population change against annual new housing build completions accompanied by annual net migration.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Tuesday, July 16, 2019

US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the latest analysis in my US housing market analysis that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast that covers the following in bold

  • Current State
  • Momentum Analysis
  • US ECONOMY - GDP
  • Unemployment
  • Inflation
  • Producer Prices Index
  • Yield Curve
  • US Debt
  • QE4EVER!
  • DEMOGRAPHICS
  • US Home Builders Index (XHB)
  • US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
  • US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
  • Peering into the Mists of Time
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Tuesday, July 09, 2019

Bridging Finance: An Option for Real Estate Business / Housing-Market / Debt & Loans

By: Submissions

If you are involved in real estate, the chances are high that you will be in need of some sort of financing for property development. A structure that is not developed properly will not sell – which is why you have to come up with ways to cover up the gaps.

Most of the time, this type of financing is usually done through borrowing against the property – and in most cases, the form of financing for property development goes under the name of bridging loans. By reading this guide, you will find out how bridge loan works and how it can help you in your real estate business.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Friday, July 05, 2019

US Home Builders Index (XHB) Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the latest analysis in my US housing market analysis that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast that covers the following in bold

  • Current State
  • Momentum Analysis
  • US ECONOMY - GDP
  • Unemployment
  • Inflation
  • Producer Prices Index
  • Yield Curve
  • US Debt
  • QE4EVER!
  • DEMOGRAPHICS
  • US Home Builders Index (XHB)
  • US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
  • US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
  • Peering into the Mists of Time
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Friday, July 05, 2019

US Housing Market Demographics / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the latest analysis in my US housing market analysis that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast that covers the following in bold

  • Current State
  • Momentum Analysis
  • US ECONOMY - GDP
  • Unemployment
  • Inflation
  • Producer Prices Index
  • Yield Curve
  • US Debt
  • QE4EVER!
  • DEMOGRAPHICS
  • US Home Builders Index (XHB)
  • US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
  • US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
  • Peering into the Mists of Time
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Thursday, July 04, 2019

US Housing Market Is Booming, but Investors Are Still Too Scared to Invest in It / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Stephen_McBride

The US housing market is booming.

This past month the number of Americans looking to buy a new house spiked to a three-year high. Mortgage applications jumped 40%.

And Quicken Loans, the US’s largest mortgage lender, had its best month in 30 years.

“The phone is ringing off the hook” CEO Jay Farner said in a recent interview.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Tuesday, July 02, 2019

Are US Real Estate ETF’s The Next Big Trade? Part II / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In part I of this research post, we highlighted how the shifting landscape of the US real estate market may be setting up an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders.  It is our belief that the continued capital shift which has been driving foreign investment into US assets, real estate, and other investments may be shifting away from US real estate as tell-tale signs of stress are starting to show.  Foreclosures and price drops are one of the first signs that stress exists in the markets and we believe the real estate segment could be setting up for an incredible trade opportunity.

SRS, the Proshares Ultrashort Real Estate EFT has recently completed a unique “washout low” price bottom that we believe may become an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders.  If the US Fed pushes the market into a panic mode, sellers will become even more desperate to offload their homes and buyers will become even more discerning in terms of selecting what and when to buy.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Monday, July 01, 2019

Are Real Estate ETF’s The Next Big Trade? / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

A subscriber recently mentioned getting into a real estate ETF so we started going over the data which may suggest the Real Estate sector could become the next big trade over the next 12+ months.  The news that the US Fed may decrease rates in an attempt to front-run global economic weakness and real estate market weakness may result in a waterfall event in local and regional real estate markets.  This type of event could become a fantastic trading opportunity for technical traders.

Recently we have been talking about the unit and very different opportunities in other physical assets like precious metals. Each metal is unique for market timing has its own personality. Our gold predictions are an eye-opener, why silver is awesome, and our most recent analysis on platinum is timely.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Monday, July 01, 2019

5 Real Estate Investment Tips to Consider / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Umer_Mahmood

If you’re looking to invest in something that will provide you with a steady amount of wealth, then the real estate market may be an option.

Investing in real estate has been around for decades and has proven to make investors quite a bit of money. Much of the success comes down to the interest rates and inflation. What you bought 20 years ago will likely bring you a hefty return in 2019.

As with any investment journey you go on, it’s essential to have a plan. We have five real estate investment tips that you’ll want to consider as you create your plan.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

US House Prices Yield Curve, Debt, QE4EVER! / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Yield Curve

The yield curve (spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) continues to flirt with inversion, currently standing at 0.23%. Clearly the housing market is not comfortable with an inversion given the slowing trend since 0.5%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Monday, June 10, 2019

UK Housing Market BTL Products at Highest Number Since October 2007 / Housing-Market / Buy to Let

By: MoneyFacts

Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data, not yet published, shows that the number of buy-to-let (BTL) products available, currently 2,396 products, is the highest on record since the beginnings of the financial crisis in October 2007, when the total number of available products stood at 3,305. Since June 2018, the total number of available BTL products has increased by 21%, and in the past month alone it has risen by 143 products, from 2,253 to 2,396.

Meanwhile, average BTL mortgage rates have also risen over the past 12 months, with the average two-year BTL fixed rate mortgage increasing by 0.17% from 2.88% in June 2018 to 3.05% this month, while the average five-year BTL fixed rate has risen by 0.11% to stand at 3.54% (June 2018: 3.43%). Both rates still stand significantly lower than in October 2007 however, when the average two-year BTL fixed rate stood at 6.36% while its five-year counterpart stood at 6.39%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Gap Between Average two and five-year Fixed Rate Mortgages at 7 year low / Housing-Market / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

Latest analysis by Moneyfacts.co.uk shows that the difference between the average two-year and five-year fixed mortgage rate has narrowed by 0.06% from 0.42% to 0.36% since the beginning of the year, seeing it stand at the lowest difference recorded in seven years as a result. The average two-year fixed rate has fallen by 0.03% from 2.52% in January 2019 to 2.49% this month, while the average five-year fixed rate decreased by 0.09% from 2.94% to 2.85% over the same period.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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