Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, January 12, 2025
It's Five Nights at Freddy's Again! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my most recent market brief as sent to Patrons Sunday 12th.
Early 2025 stock market rally evaporates triggering much doom and gloom though the S&P is barely changed on the start of the year! We have got pretty much a repeat of a year ago i.e. Santa rally fail, first five days down, that got folk into a bit of panic as the likes of Hirsch had talked up his incoming Trifecta SELL Signal on a Down January which prompted me to do the following Five Nights at Freddy's article -
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Sunday, January 05, 2025
Squid Game Stock Market 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The S&P ends 2024 at 5881 up an epic 23% on the year virtually a repeat of the +24% for 2023, and down 2.75% on the month which is contrary to the seasonal pattern for Decembers. In fact 2024 has been a year of contrary to seasonal price trends, i.e. April was down when it should have been Up, September was Up when it should have been Down and now December is down when it should have been Up, so Investing in the stock market during 2024 was a bit like playing Squid Game, every investor thinks they know with certainty that they will win with their perfect buys but most got killed or were left on the sidelines as the watched the market do the opposite of what they were expecting it to do, the key lesson being to be positioned for the market to either go up or down whilst maintaining exposure to the BULL MARKET as despite all of the fear and fomo the stock market managed to snake it's way to an epic gain of 23% for the year! What more could investors have asked for from 2024? The fact that despite this many are still disappointed speaks volumes of how difficult investing actually is practice vs folk thinking it will be easy money, if you find yourself disappointed despite a 23% gain then what are you going to be like during a down year?
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Friday, December 27, 2024
Stock Market Bubble Drivers, Crypto Exit Strategy During Musk Presidency / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Counting down to year end and continuing pump into President Musk's inauguration that should see stocks and crypto's pump to new highs, with perhaps First Lady Donald giving us all a twirl on the dance floor.
Sunday, December 22, 2024
Stock Market Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
We are now into the time frame for a santa rally that runs from Monday into early January, 2024 has been another great year for AI tech stocks whilst most focus on the indices nothing burgers be it the S&P or Nasdaq (which I don't pay any attention to).
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Sunday, December 22, 2024
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Why Do We Rely On News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
Well, that was quite the eventful week. We had a Fed announcement, and all the market geniuses were quick to attribute the cause of the 3% decline to the Fed announcement. However, this is nothing more than a foolish and very superficial perspective, which evidences their lack of true understanding of how our markets work.
As I have said often, while news can act as a catalyst for a market move, the substance of the news is really irrelevant in determining the direction of the move. In fact, we have seen many moves through market history which have not even been supported by the news. In fact, in1988 there was a study conducted by Cutler, Poterba, and Summers entitled “What Moves Stock Prices,” which supports my perspective.
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Friday, December 20, 2024
THEY DON'T RING THE BELL AT THE CRPTO MARKET TOP! / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Latest Market Brief 20th Dec 2024
Crypto's are dumping, Bitcoin $94k, Solana $180, Doge $0.28, AVAX $34, COIN $260 can be very enticing to buy the dip for the next FOMO rally but I have always considered crypto's to be fairy dust, easy come easy go, so this is a warning that the TOP for crypto's could be in, so as I've been saying in the comments I would be very wary of buying the dip as the plan since the Trump pump began has been to disinvest from crypto's. Those who have followed should by now should have banked profits, I mean my exit strategy in recent articles could not have made things any clearer of what I am doing.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Stock Market Expected Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So far we are not getting the dip in the S&P, to the contrary as mentioned earlier the S&P traded to a new all time high which lowers the probability for an October dip getting down to anywhere the target of 5200, instead the S&P correcting down to 5500 looks doable from where we currently stand. Note the operative word "correction". Octobers tend to be one of the most volatile months of the year as does August and we saw what happened during August. a huge spike down that reversed to see the month close up, none of which will be visible in the monthly seasonal data. So whilst it might not seem like it right now with the S&P trading at 5740 as I write, October volatility is likely to see the S&P trade down by about 5% targeting a spike to below 5500 during the next few weeks which given the timing of will likely result in a DOWN OCTOBER, following which we will be set for that rip the face off the bears rally to well over 6000 during January 2025 as per trend forecast.
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Monday, December 16, 2024
Tesla $460, Bitcoin $107k, S&P 6080 - The Pump Continues! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Latest Market Brief 16th Dec 2024
Tesla $460 - I sold a big chunk today now down to 11% invested, 2.7% of portfolio, Fomo mania in msm and twit land, I"ll probably have sold 80% by 500! I remember when I bought huge at $166 those who followed were soon crying because it continued to fall to a low of $139, that's the thing, one does not want to try and buy THE low because you won't! At THE low you'll think THE low is much lower. Now folk wish they could turn back time and buy at $166 just as I said they will wish they could in the not too distant future. How to time travel will be a topic in my next article ��
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Stock Market Risk to the Upside! S&P 7000 Forecast 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just so that we are all reading from the same page - A Correction is a Correction is a Correction, 5500 vs 5750 is not even 5%! Primary focus is to remain exposed to the AI mega-trend stocks and seek opps to accumulate as they come along, look at what happened to Chinese AI tech stocks!
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Stock Market 2025 Mid Decade Year / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Statistically 2025 is expected to be the stronger of 2022,2023 and 2024, which again is supportive of the thesis that 2025 will see a gain of between 20% and 30% and probably nearer to 30%, i.e. a rip the face of the bears rally where those sat on the sidelines throw caution to the wind and FOMO in propelling the S&P well beyond 7000 towards 8000
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock market performance based on whether the President is Democrat or Republican.
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A strong September during a strong year that has only seen 1 down month (April), so what does this rare pattern suggest could come next?
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Friday, December 13, 2024
What Does a Strong Sept Mean for the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
September is seasonally the weakest month of the year, and has been so for 3 years in a row until September 2024 resulting in the unexpected up closing month, though there are too factors that should be obvious -
1. Three years down in a row increases the probability for an UP September, a little more attention to detail should have flagged this as being probable.
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Is Trump the Most Pro-Stock Market President Ever? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
According to CNBC on November 11, "Trump Is the Most Pro-Stock Market President in History." "The stock market could enjoy a bigger boost from President-elect Donald Trump than any previous administration," says the author of Stocks for the Long Run.
This belief is producing some spectacular risk-on biases. Here's a November 22 headline from Bloomberg that highlights investors' willingness to embrace his supposed influence on the futures markets: "Trump Set to Supercharge Options Boom by Retail Investors."
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Interest Rates, Unemployment and the SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Donald_W_Dony
December's Federal Reserve meeting next week suggests a 25bps rate reduction. Traders are consolidating bets on a 90% chance of a cut by year-end. Still, there are concerns that price expansion will be sticky to lower. Core inflation remains unchanged at 3.30%. In addition, upside tariff threats and tax cuts magnified inflation risks. Both policies result in expansionary pressures.
The bond market and the US dollar illustrate the balancing act of persistent inflationary pressure and keeping interest rates low to support the economy (Chart 1).
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Sunday, December 08, 2024
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
S&P is up 27.5% YTD! This after a 24% gain for 2023, this is NOT NORMAL, we are in early stage FOMO MANIA! Further evidence for which one only need look at crypto's as BTC up 130% YTD broke above $100k trading to $104k before the exchanges FLASH CRASHED leveraged longs out of their positions and now trading back over $100k.
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Monday, December 02, 2024
Stock & Crypto Markets Going into December 2024 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my most recent market brief -
Stock & Crypto's Market Brief 1st Dec 2024 - (6pm UK Time)
Folk keep messaging me that Bitcoins down, Solana's down, Doge is down and if they are now a good buy, I reply "dude you're a year late to the party!"
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Friday, November 29, 2024
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So far the election year seasonal trend has had 4 misses out of 9 months, so on it's own as is the case with most individual pieces of analysis has been a coin flip as to whether any particular month will follow the seasonal pattern or not.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2024
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Folk keep messaging me that Bitcoins down, Solana's down, Doge is down and if they are now a good buy, I reply "dude you're a year late to the party!"
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Thursday, November 21, 2024
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Donald Trump election win sends bitcoin, crypto and stock markets into a euphoric high on prospects for the forthcoming money printing binge. We may all be getting high on the pump right now but you all know it's not going to end well for most, those who FOMO into the highs, no matter how much we try game this, it's going to be a tough balancing act between how much we manage to take off the casino tables before the music stops and the SHTF!
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