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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, May 06, 2021

Vaccine Economic Boom and Bust / Economics / US Economy

By: Stephen_McBride

By the numbers, the US looks much better than it did than a few months ago. Jobless claims dropped to their lowest levels of the pandemic; COVID-19 vaccine shots went into arms at a record rate.

But we’ve seen how this goes. The virus spreads in waves that recede and then return, often stronger. Some areas of the US are experiencing their fourth wave of coronavirus cases.

Vaccinations are supposed to break this cycle. And maybe they will. Unfortunately, that looks less likely as vaccine demand shows signs of peaking.

That means some establishments have, or will soon, close their doors … to mass vaccinations.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, May 05, 2021

Global Economic Recovery 2021 and the Dark Legacies of Smoot-Hawley / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

In 2021, China’s economic momentum will drive global economic prospects. But new trade wars could derail global recovery, again.

In the 1st quarter of the ongoing year, China’s GDP rose to a record 18.3% year-on-year. Despite the base effect, due to the pandemic plunge a year ago, the performance reflects strong momentum. In April, China’s economy continued to boom, with strong exports and rising business confidence supporting the recovery.

U.S. economic growth accelerated in the 1st quarter, thanks to a rush of consumer spending. The GDP expanded at a 6.4% annualized rate; the second-largest since 2003. But it missed the estimates by 0.3 percent. Moreover, it was fueled by two rounds of huge stimulus payments, ultra-low interest rates and historical debt-taking.
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Economics

Monday, May 03, 2021

MMT: Medieval Monetary Theory / Economics / Economic Theory

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth of Gold Resource Investor provides his take on MMT and explains why he believes its effects will drive precious metals and commodities much higher.

Modern Monetary Theory or MMT, as it's better known, is a recurring theme that's not likely to go away. However, there's nothing modern about it, it's not about money (it's about currency), and it's no longer a theory.

We've certainly not heard much about it in mainstream economics or investment publications. But I do think it's gaining traction.

In my view, MMT is a very big deal because of its massive implications to our economic future. And so, I think it's worthwhile having at least a basic understanding of the concept.

In fact, if you're reading this, odds are good you've at least heard of MMT and you may have some idea of what it's about. If that's the case, you probably understand better than most the importance of investing in hard assets that can't be inflated at the whim of central planners.

And right now, the two most undervalued hard assets remain gold and silver.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, May 02, 2021

Inflation or Deflation? (Not a silly question…) / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Dear reader,

The question in the subject line of this email is not an idle one.

It has everything to do with how you should position your portfolio for in the months -- and maybe even years -- ahead.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Biden’s Green New Deal / Economics / Renewable Energy

By: Richard_Mills

Joe Biden came to power as the 46th US president expecting to spend more on green energy and clean technology. Just how much more is starting to be revealed.

Doubles down on emissions

This week Biden fulfilled a campaign promise in convening a “global climate summit” within his first 100 days in office. The two-day virtual meeting, attended by the leaders of a number of US allies and two of its adversaries — China and Russia — appears like many of these gatherings to be mostly a talking shop.

But a decision on Thursday is substantive, and therefore bears examination. The president committed the US to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52% below its 2005 emissions levels by 2030, without revealing any details as to how this would be achieved.

The announcement also brings GHG reduction targets 20 years forward from what is set out in Biden’s $2.3 trillion infrastructure/ clean energy proposal unveiled in March. That plan commits to net-zero emissions by 2050 (net-zero refers to balancing the amount of emitted greenhouse gases with the equivalent emissions that are either offset or sequestered).

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Economics

Saturday, April 24, 2021

No Fear Of Inflation; Threat Of Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Kelsey_Williams

The Fed wants to have their cake and eat it too, but the cake is stale. Jerome Powell’s remarks in testimony before the Senate recently provoked considerable attention.

Responses, interpretation, and analysis by observers were many and varied. Unfortunately, no one learned anything different from what they thought they knew before Powell’s testimony.

The Fed is well aware of the problem. It is systemic in nature and goes far beyond corporate due diligence, bank liquidity, and the safety of your broker.

Most everyone else (with the exception of Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, and Alan Greenspan) thinks they understand the problem, but their limited understanding doesn’t allow for the subtleties of Fed Chair behavior.

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Economics

Thursday, April 22, 2021

China's record first quarter fuels strong expansion in 2021 / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

China’s 1st quarter record performance will accelerate momentum in China and support recovery in the US and global economic prospects – as long as unwarranted geopolitical tensions remain in check.

A year ago, China’s first quarter plunge was -6.8 percent, due to the pandemic effect. In the West, it was widely seen as the “end of China's growth story.”

Instead, in early February 2020 I predicted a turnaround in the increase of new virus cases in China, with the beginning of the economic rebound in the second quarter. Following the 6.5 percent expansion in the fourth quarter of 2020, the GDP rose to a record 18.3 percent year-on-year in the past quarter.

Obviously, the performance benefited from the base effect, due to the pandemic plunge a year ago. Nonetheless, it reflects a strong impetus for normalization.
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Economics

Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Inflation: First the Gain, Then the Pain… / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Gold and silver markets are exhibiting more signs of breaking out into a rally.

On Thursday, bond yields pulled back sharply. That helped fuel a new record in the Dow Jones Industrials. But the precious metals sector was an outperformer on the day, with mining stocks leading gold prices to a fresh multi-week high.

With the exception of palladium, precious metals markets have lagged behind other asset classes in 2021. That may be in the process of changing here in the second quarter.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Biggest Inflation Threat in 40 Years Looms over Markets / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

William Watts with MarketWatch sees the “biggest Inflation scare in 40 years” on its way. He expects massive amounts of stimulus coupled with a boom associated with easing COVID restrictions to generate a surge in prices like the nation hasn’t seen since the late 1970s to early 1980s.

The signs say Watts may be right. Commodities, with the exception of closely managed gold and silver prices, have been screaming higher in recent months. Wheat, corn, lumber, copper, steel, and a host of other key inputs have all spiked higher.

The jump is already being felt in consumer goods and construction, but the bulk of the price hikes may still lie ahead.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 06, 2021

Inflation Fears Rise on Biden’s $3.9 TRILLION in Deficit Spending / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Gold and silver markets sprung higher on Thursday as April and second quarter trading kicked off. After suffering losses in the first quarter, precious metals may now be due for a spring rally.

The U.S. Dollar Index was up slightly this week. Regardless of how the dollar fares against other fiat currencies, investors can expect massive depreciation ahead in real terms. There is no end in sight to the inflationary cycle of spending, borrowing, and printing in Washington.

This week, President Joe Biden promoted a so-called infrastructure package that comes in at more than $2 trillion.  That’s on top of $1.9 trillion in bailouts and giveaways finalized last month.

Much of the proposed “infrastructure” spending has nothing to do with paving roads, building bridges, or expanding ports. These sorts of transportation upgrades are slated to only get $115 billion. Meanwhile, Biden would spend $174 billion on electric vehicle subsidies and hundreds of billions more on various “green” and racial leveling programs.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

INFLATION - Wage Slaves vs Gold Owners / Economics / Inflation

By: Richard_Mills

Inflation is the rate at which prices within a basket of goods or services (called the consumer price index or CPI) rise or fall. When a currency falls, the ability of that unit of money to purchase goods and services weakens, ie., it takes more units of currency to buy the same basket of goods as before it weakened. The more a currency falls, the less you can buy with it because its purchasing power decreases. We call this devaluation/ loss of purchasing power.

Casey Research founder Doug Casey believes we often put the cart before the horse when thinking about inflation. The renowned investor, author, and speaker states,

“Inflation” occurs when the creation of currency outruns the creation of real wealth it can bid for… It isn’t caused by price increases; rather, it causes price increases.

Inflation is not caused by the butcher, the baker, or the auto maker, although they usually get blamed. Inflation is the work of government alone since government alone controls the creation of currency.

Indeed, governments in fiat economies can literally print paper money “out of thin air,” something impossible to do with a gold-backed currency. When the United States and most of the world was on the gold standard, dollars could be converted to gold at the US Treasury’s “gold window” @ 1 oz=US$35. However, the US government was only allowed to create as much money as could be backed by the gold in its faults. (it is often said, “the Fed can’t print gold” (or silver).

When gold goes up or down it is not inherently losing value; what has changed is the value of paper money, the fiat dollar. When you buy gold to resist inflation, ie., rising prices that eat away your savings by reducing your purchasing power, it is called a hedge against inflation.

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Economics

Friday, March 19, 2021

What the "Sudden, Dramatic" Surge in Googling "Inflation" Tells You / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

It likely "typifies the end of an old economic trend and the beginning of a new one"

In the news, you hear that the big monetary fear these days is the prospect for a jump in inflation.

Here are some headlines since the start of the year:

  • Inflation Is Coming. That Might Even Be a Problem. (Bloomberg, Jan. 13)
  • Inflation concerns put Biden, Fed on defensive (TheHill.com, Feb. 23)
  • Stocks tumble as Powell signals inflation is ahead (CNN Business, March 5)
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, March 16, 2021

We Need Infrastructure Spending to Avoid Another Texas-Sized Mess / Economics / Infrastructure

By: John_Mauldin

I just talked with one of the most successful hedge fund managers in the country (in terms of returns over the last four years). He will not allow me to use his name. But I can tell you he is a raging bull.

He believes the stimulus that we already had plus what we will get—coupled with a major infrastructure bill, plus extraordinarily easy monetary policy, combined with significant new technology innovations—adds up to a new bull market.

This is someone with 5X returns over the last four years with a very diverse portfolio. So it could pay to pay attention.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, March 14, 2021

Keys to US / Global Economic Recovery - Part 2 / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This is a continuation of our extended technical review of what my research team and I believe will be required for the US/Global markets to enter a stronger post-COVID-19 recovery phase. If you missed Part I of this research series then you can find it here: www.thetechnicaltraders.com/....

In this Part II, we will look at how potential currency shifts will prompt new trending in various economic sectors.   The past 20+ years have really changed how the markets operate from a standpoint of capital deployment and capital function.  We certainly live in interesting times from a trader and investor perspective. There is more capital floating around the globe right now than ever before… and that changes certain things.

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Economics

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Biden Stimulus And Consumers Are The Keys To Further US/Global Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

At this point in our lives, we are hoping the new COVID-19 vaccines will do their part to help move the world towards more normal consumer and economic activities.  The US Senate recently a new $1.9 Trillion stimulus package that should continue to provide assistance to various levels of consumer, state governments, and corporate enterprises.  The next question in our mind is “what will the recovery look like if/when it happens?”.  We need to look at three critical components of the global economy to help answer this question: Consumer Activity, Debt, and Supply/Demand Functions.

Consumer activity makes up more than 60% of the US GDP.  It also drives money flow as consumers engage in economic activity, create credit for new purchases and help to balance the supply/demand equilibrium functioning properly.  The participation of the consumer within an economy is essential for a healthy growing economy.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 09, 2021

Amid Uncertainty, China’s Quest for Bold Development  / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

At a historical moment of hope and uncertainty, China pledges bold economic development, despite global tensions.

China’s annual “Two Sessions” meeting has approved national priorities for 2021. Delivered by Premier Li Keqiang, the Government Work Report set a growth target of over 6 percent for Chinese economy for 2021, releasing a numeric goal after it was skipped in 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

China plans to create more than 11 million new jobs in 2021, while keeping inflation rate (CPI) at 3 percent and cutting the deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3.2 percent. The goal is to increase annual R&D spending by more than 7 percent in the next five years, including foreign-funded R&D centers in China.

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Economics

Monday, March 08, 2021

US Economy, GDP, Unemployment, Inflation Impact on House Prices Trend 2021 / Economics / US Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US economy is recovering fast from the corona crash with annualised GDP down just 2.8% for Q3, a remarkable performance and far better than most western nations.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, March 07, 2021

The Case for Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers recently pointed out that overstimulation risk will far exceed the “output gap” shown in the latest Congressional Budget Office economic projections.

What is an output gap? Gross Domestic Product measures (or at least tries to) economic growth. Economists also calculate “potential GDP,” which is how much the economy could grow, if every available worker and other resource were fully employed.

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Economics

Saturday, March 06, 2021

US & UK Head for Post Coronavirus Pandemic Lockdown Inflationary Economic BOOM / Economics / Coronavirus 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Starting Monday Britains final Coronavirus lockdown will start to come to an end, first with the opening of all of Britains schools and soon followed by outdoor sports facilities, then shops with the bulk of opening including Universities to resume teaching students after Easter so in about 2 months now, by Mid May we will be largely be living in post pandemic lockdown's world when we can all soon go on holiday at home and abroad with our vaccine passports which should mark the start of a 2 year economic boom, given pent up demand and £400 billion of money printing to date. Though with 5 million on furlough then despite the coming boom unemployment will increase as 5 million workers find out whether they still have a job or not.

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Economics

Thursday, March 04, 2021

Get Ready for Inflation Mega-trend to Surge 2021 / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So the US looks set to approve stimulus spending of $1,9 trillion for the US economy during 2021, with economists singing it's praises of how basically you get a free lunch, one of huge deficit spending at zero interest rate and no inflation. Understand $1.9 trillion is 10% of the US Economy! This for an economy that has already recovered from the covid depression and was destined to grow by about 3% in 2021. So what happens when one throws 10% of GDP at an economy that is growing by 3% per annum. No you don't get GDP growth of 13% per annum, yes it will boost US GDP for 2021 but not by 10%, perhaps by another 3%, so where does the other 7% or $1.5 trillion go? Into HIGHER PRICES, INFLATION! Some of which may be reflected in the official inflation indices.

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