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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, May 10, 2024

Biden's Bureau of Labor Statistics is Cooking Jobs Reports / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: MoneyMetals

Last Friday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report showed that U.S. employers added some 175,000 jobs in April.

But while April’s numbers captured most of the headlines, the same jobs report also contained downward revisions for earlier this year, with the BLS admitting that “employment in February and March combined is 22,000 lower than previously reported.”

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Economics

Monday, April 08, 2024

Media Elite Belittle Inflation Struggles of Ordinary Americans / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

A top writer for the Wall Street Journal thinks Americans who complain about the economy just aren't aware of how good things are.

Chief Economics Commentator Greg Ip wrote a gaslighting article last week with the headline, "What's Wrong With the Economy? It's You, Not the Data."

The article begins with the claim that Americans just don't have the facts on inflation.

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Economics

Monday, March 18, 2024

US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Economics / US Presidential Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis posted in January 2023 that despite MSM hysteria strongly suggested that there would be NO recession during 2023, as there had never been a recession during a pre-election year. Whilst the highest risk is that the recession materialises during 2025, though both 2024 and 2026 are equally high recession risk years.

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Economics

Monday, March 18, 2024

US Recession Already Happened in 2022! / Economics / Recession 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Yes it is a a big fat con because the US has already posted 2 quarters of negative GDP in 2022 Q1 and Q2 , what can you do? This is the world we inhabit of fake economic data, the Fed does not like CPI, lets run with the much lower PCE, 5% instead of 8% inflation! What a con!

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Economics

Thursday, February 29, 2024

US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic / Economics / Unemployment

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst everyone focuses on the unemployment rate as a gauge for economic activity, however the statistic has been engineered to the extent to become meaningless as shadow stats illustrates.

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Economics

Saturday, February 17, 2024

Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation / Economics / Global Economy

By: MoneyMetals

Defining inflation as "rising prices" creates all kinds of confusion.

As I explained in-depth, historically, inflation meant an increase in the amount of money and credit in the economy, or more succinctly, an expansion in the money supply. Rising consumer prices - price inflation - is one symptom of this monetary inflation. 

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Economics

Friday, January 19, 2024

Toward China's Soft Economic Rebound / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

Last year, international observers charged China for global inflation, deflation and economic collapse. In reality, Chinese economy is inching toward a soft rebound, despite the dire global landscape.
As global business and political leaders swarmed to Davos for the World Economic Forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang took the podium. Chinese economy has rebounded and moved upward, Li noted, and was estimated to have grown around 5.2% in 2023. That’s slightly better than the official target of around 5%.
No matter how the world’s situation changes, Li added. China will adhere to its fundamental national policy of opening up, and its door will only get wider and wider.” he said.
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Economics

Saturday, November 04, 2023

A Recession is Brewing / Economics / Recession 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A reminder that a recession is brewing as illustrated by the US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions analysis (Stock Market Gasping to Reach 4000 Ahead of Earnings Season, Dow New All Time High 2023?)

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Economics

Friday, November 03, 2023

FED Loads of Money! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

S&P Measuring Move

Rally from 4333 to 4540 is 207 points, 4333 - 207 points = 4126. Not a forecast rather another piece of the puzzle eyeballing sub 4200, and my long standing objective of 4150 as being probable.

So stock market eyes sub 4200, and eying achieving 4150 with possibility of overshoot to just under 4100 over the next 4 to 6 weeks. Therefore the market is primed to snap back inline with my trend forecast by means of taking a significant tumble over the coming weeks where we can all look for catalysts for but the forecast remains blind to all that has transpired since it was posted 10 months ago!

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Economics

Friday, September 22, 2023

The Full Employment Lie / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Today's narrative is that the Fed needs to force unemployment higher to cause demand destruction to bring inflation under control. Only one problem is that just as CPI is a FAKE inflation measure so is the Unemployment rate. They have fiddled the stats to such an extent that today's 3.6% unemployment is more like 10% for your grandfathers unemployment as shadow stats once more illustrates, Just look at the spread between REAL unemployment and fake UNEMPLIE 25% vs 3.6%! Seriously they are taking the piss, treating the masses like idiots! Unfortunately the Econofools perpetuate this LIE across MSM, so there you have it US unemployment rate is a lot closer to 25% than 3.65%

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Economics

Thursday, September 07, 2023

Why US Annual Budget Deficits Are Getting Worse / Economics / US Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The pandemic a once in a 100 year event sparked rampant deficit spending to bailout the economy, that was 2020, whilst 2021 was nearly as bad! And 2022 did show an improvement by reverting back to pre-pandemic deficit era extremes. However the 2023 deficit is once more ramping up and running at twice the pre-pandemic extreme rate.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 06, 2023

US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As my analysis of Jan 2023 pointed out (Stock Market Gasping to Reach 4000 Ahead of Earnings Season, Dow New All Time High 2023?)

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Economics

Monday, September 04, 2023

Yield Curve Inversion and Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Apparently the yield curve inversion has a 100% hit rate, whenever a yield curve inverts it has always resulted in a recession.

Only problem is that it can take anywhere from 6 months to 3 years for the recession to materialise! Thus is another one of those nothing burgers that most analysts obsess over. For instance take the current inversion as of March 2022, those who swallowed the recession is coming mantra have been sat in money market accounts for the last 9 months whilst stocks such as META first doubled, then tripled and look set to quadruple, what kind of *****-A-Doodle-Doo indicator is the yield curve inversion? Which is why I don't tend to pay it much attention, given that it is pretty much useless in terms of investing.

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Economics

Saturday, September 02, 2023

CPI Smoke and Mirrors Hides Decade Long REAL Inflation PAIN! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

INFLATION

Firstly understand that inflation is by DESIGN, the last thing your masters want is for the slaves to stop working so one of the primary mechanisms used to keep the slaves working is inflation because it destroys the purchasing power of earnings and savings so that most folks are kept running on the work hamster wheel into their graves where their lifetime of savings have been eroded away by INFLATION, or stolen by the banking crime syndicate, financial con men and through a myriad of modern day scam artists, run a mile from fund managers! They are all scam artists! If you think UK and US inflation is high take a look at the poor souls in Turkey (where I will soon be taking a trip, Istanbul), 58% inflation against which the depositors are thrown scraps of a 15% TAXED interest! Yes that's right, you get TAXED on the interest that FAILS to keep pace with inflation! Same in the UK, fake inflation of 7.2%, savings rates typically of 4.5% to 5.5% and the lemmings appear on broadcast news happy that they are in receipt of a sub inflation pittance, this after TEN YEARS of STEALTH theft of the purchasing power of their savings! At least the risky stock market gives ordinary folks a good chance to avoid the stealth theft, money in the bank is guaranteed to be systematically STOLEN! Yes we can play the fixed rate game which can temporarily work, but money in the bank in the UK over 10 years will lose between 1/5th and 1/3rd of it's value!

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Economics

Saturday, August 19, 2023

Talking Heads Predict No Recession While Shrinkflation Clips Consumers / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets are extending their losing streak as the U.S. dollar pushes higher. The Dollar Index rose for a fifth straight week through Thursday's close.
Although the downward momentum in metals markets has been fairly steady for over a month, the total amount of price retracement has been modest. Volatility in gold and silver markets has actually been coming down.

When volatility gets compressed, that tends to precede a big move – often in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend, which has been down.

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Economics

Sunday, July 09, 2023

Uk Inflation in 2023: The Current Situation / Economics / Inflation

By: Umer_Mahmood

The April index falls less than expected to 8.7%. And the core figure has been at its best since 1992. After the IMF's good estimates on the economy, markets see a hawkish BoE

Difficult day for the stock markets of the  Continent, which has been affected by a long series of bad news. Starting with the cold shower that came from British inflation, to which are added the fears of the failed agreement on the US debt ceiling and those about the damage that the Chinese economy could suffer from the new wave of Covid together with the ban on Micron chips. But, if on the impasse in Washington there is the belief that an agreement will arrive before 'date X', the race in prices in the United Kingdom gives us a glimpse of a dark future on the interest rate front.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 20, 2023

How Germany's Economy is Turning Ugly / Economics / China Economy

By: EWI

This economic gauge "dipped back below zero in less than a year"

In November 2020, when fears were rampant over a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, the president of the European Central Bank called for economic stimulus (Reuters):

Facing gloomy outlook, Lagarde calls for unlocking EU aid

In December of 2020, what is known as the Next Generation EU package became operational. This economic aid was massive, amounting to more than €2 trillion at current prices.

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Economics

Saturday, April 01, 2023

THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The primary driver for stock prices is Not Innovation, Disruption or even GDP growth (though it is part of the soup), No the Primary driver for stock prices is INFLATION! It's why Turkish stocks (before this weeks killer Quake) were racing ahead despite persistently high Turkish inflation rates of as much as 85% during 2022 as they experienced their own version of the Crack up BOOM!

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Economics

Friday, March 24, 2023

U.S. Money Supply Deflates 2% Annually (What That Means) / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

The debt bomb implodes: Expect recession and deflation;

Many pundits have expressed worry about the ramifications of global debt -- and rightly so. As the Wall Street Journal noted toward the end of 2022:

The world has amassed $290 trillion of debt and it's getting more expensive to pay for it.

In the U.S. alone, the cost of servicing the national debt is expected to skyrocket over the next decade (Fox News, Feb. 27):

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Economics

Thursday, March 16, 2023

I Walked into the Mercedes Dealership… / Economics / Motoring

By: Submissions

By Chris Wood : I couldn’t believe what I saw at the Mercedes dealership… 5% is the magic number… The simplest way to profit from the EV boom…
  1. I walked into a Mercedes shop in New Orleans the other day and was shocked…

All I saw were electric vehicles (EVs). Rows and rows of them.

I had to walk all the way to the back of the store to check out the “old school” gas-powered models.

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