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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

U.S. Recession Watch: The Six-Cycle Forecast / Economics / Economic Theory

By: F_F_Wiley

It’s usually a bad idea to stand too close to something—whether an object, a problem you’d like to solve or any number of other things—which could mean seeing all of the pixels but none of the patterns. That’s why we populate albums, frames and holiday cards with bird’s eye views and sweeping vistas. It’s why every city that aspires to “destination” status advertises this or that Tower, Arch, Needle or Eye.

But if we look from too far away, we run a different risk of missing important information. That’s why we send probes, ships and occasionally scientists into outer space. It’s why we don’t Facetime our doctors, we hop on the examination table and show them exactly what’s bothering us.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. / Economics / US Economy

By: EWI

Don't listen to the naysayers -- there IS a way to forecast the general health of the economy. This method has repeatedly proven itself.

Yes, you can anticipate the likelihood of a recession, even a depression -- or, conversely, when major economic measures -- like jobs -- will be robust.

That surefire way is the performance of the stock market.

That's right, despite the widespread belief that the economy drives the stock market, it's the stock market which leads the economy. Why not the other way around? Because the economy is a slow boat.

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Economics

Sunday, July 14, 2019

Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold / Economics / Recession 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

How likely is a recession in the United States? Predicting a recession is difficult, but one can make some nice money with a good forecast. Consequently, we invite you to read our today’s article, which discusses the most important recessionary models developed by the Fed, and find out what do they imply for the gold market.

How likely is a recession in the United States? Predicting a recession is difficult, but one can make some nice money with a good forecast. So let’s focus on the most important recessionary models developed by the Fed.

The first model is the smoothed recession probabilities for the United States developed by Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger based on the research published in the International Economic Review and Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. The odds are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.

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Economics

Sunday, July 14, 2019

The Problem with Keynesian Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

In The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, John Maynard Keynes wrote:

“The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.”

I think Lord Keynes himself would appreciate the irony that he has become the defunct economist under whose influence the academic and bureaucratic classes now toil, slaves to what has become as much a religious belief system as an economic theory.

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Economics

Monday, July 08, 2019

Slowing Western economies will force new QE: Trading Setups and Deep analysis / Economics / Global Economy

By: QUANTO

The world is slowing down dramatically. At the same time, the largest economy is hurtling towards an election. Al governments who go to election will try to massage the numbers and pump the stock markets. So while the economy slows, the governmment is buzy pumping markets higher with his tweets.

The slowing down economy can be seen in numerous metrics and we believe central banks will be forced to begin a new round of QE. This time they will need to face up to inflation even as they pump in money.

Key metrics and charts shown below.

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Economics

Friday, July 05, 2019

Modern Monetary Theory – Applications in the 21st Century / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andy_Sutton

Perhaps one of the biggest frauds perpetrated on the citizens of the world in the 20th century was Keynesianism. For those of you who are new to the discourse, Keynesianism was essentially the ramblings of a well-respected (at the time) economist named John Maynard Keynes and it dealt with deficit spending at the level of the federal government. It was a justification for something governments around the world were beginning to do anyway. The point of Keynes’ work was to give this very dangerous and ill-advised practice legitimacy. Sadly, it worked, and 85 years later, the developed nations of the world are mired in debt the likes of which the world has never before seen and may well never see again.

Before we get to the true purpose of this paper: an analysis of MMT, we must lay some foundational work. Please bear with us. If you have been an active reader of our previous articles and research, feel free to proceed directly to the portion where MMT is addressed.

Interestingly enough, the topic of this paper; (another consequence of treating economics as a debating society instead of a science) the foundations of modern monetary theory (hereafter MMT) actually originated long before Keynes wrote his seminal work in 1936. MMT as it is being rehashed today was actually first described by a German economist name Georg Friedrich Knapp in 1905. Originally coined ‘chartalism’ by Knapp, this perversion of economics was pushed in Knapp’s 1905 ‘State Theory of Money’. The term comes from the Latin root charta, which means ‘token’ or ‘ticket’.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 03, 2019

Freight Slowdown Is a Terrible Sign for the Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Patrick_Watson

Just as an army moves on its stomach, an economy moves on ships, trucks, and planes. They carry the goods whose purchase adds up to growth.

Nowadays many goods are digital, delivered electronically. But we still need lots of physical stuff which must travel to the customer.

Fewer goods in motion mean lower growth… and that’s exactly what is happening.

With technology, businesses have grown adept at managing inventory. Goods don’t typically sit on store shelves very long. Retailers stop ordering quickly when demand falls.

Lower freight volume is a symptom of a disease that’s getting worse.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 03, 2019

New US-Sino Trade Truce: Tougher Talks, More Economic Damage / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

During the G20 summit, China and US agreed to re-start the trade talks. As the US trade war is slowing China’s growth, the collateral damage is now spreading in the US economy, while undermining global prospects.

Despite the White House’s efforts to lobby other countries against Huawei, President Trump also said that US companies can supply the technology giant, which the US, Department of Commerce blacklisted last month.

After Osaka, the negotiators face challenging obstacles, despite still another temporary timeout. Deep bilateral disagreements prevail about major structural issues.

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Economics

Monday, July 01, 2019

Zimbabwe's Inflation is Still Surging / Economics / Inflation

By: Steve_H_Hanke

The most important price in an economy is the exchange rate between the local currency and the world’s reserve currency — the U.S. dollar. As long as there is an active black‐market (read: free market) for currency and the data are available, changes in the black‐market exchange rate can be reliably transformed into accurate estimates of countrywide inflation rates—if the annual inflation rates exceed 25%. The economic principle of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) allows for this transformation.

I compute the implied annual inflation rates with high‐frequency data and report them on a daily basis. PPP is used to translate changes in the black‐market exchange rates into annual inflation rates. For the countries that I follow each day, the table below shows the annual rates for the five countries with the highest inflation rates.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Today’s Pets.com and NINJA Loan Economy / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2019

By: Michael_Pento

The NASDAQ bubble that existed two decades ago contained a plethora of internet companies, such as Pets.com, that proved in the end to having a non-viable business model. Yet, because they enjoyed access to cheap credit, it allowed them to exist for a long time without generating positive cash flow. This, in turn, created artificial and temporary demand for all kinds of capital goods investments such as, fiber optic cable and routing equipment, which in turn served to provide a significant boost to economic growth. The consumption derived from equity prices that generated huge capital gains also proved to be a temporary and artificial support for GDP.

The same dynamic was true for the Real Estate bubble circa 2008. Subprime home buyers purchased multiple properties with no income, no job, and no assets behind their loans. This caused home prices to soar and propelled owners to extract a massive amount of equity from elevated property values that proved to be fictitious. This employed an army of lawyers, real estate brokers, and construction workers; and at the same time was a boon for the basic materials industry, home furnishing stores, etc.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

The Next Great Depression in the Making / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Harry_Dent

They lie, cheat, and steal? No way!

With all eyes focused on Facebook’s cryptocurrency reveal tomorrow, what the Fed will do this Wednesday, and Slack’s IPO on Thursday, all of which we’ll address in the coming days, let’s turn our attention to another major issue that is silently unfolding: the great baby bust. More than any of the current hot events, it will have a significant impact on the future of our economy and the success of your investments…

Decades before births peaked in 2007, I was projecting it would happen. But how could I know that? Easy. Because births fall when the economy slows, especially in the Economic Winter Season, which we’re in the latter part now.


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Economics

Monday, June 24, 2019

The Bad News About Record-Low Unemployment / Economics / US Economy

By: Robert_Ross

Unemployment is the lowest it’s been in 50 years.

That means most people who want to work can find a job. It also means people are making more money and buying more stuff.

All good. More people working is always positive. But a low unemployment rate is a double-edged sword.

See, the unemployment rate is cyclical. It’s always moving up or down. And at this point—3.6%—there’s almost no room for it to drop more.

That’s where the trouble starts: When the unemployment rate bottoms out, like it’s doing now, it means the economy has peaked. And a recession is probably coming…

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Economics

Monday, June 24, 2019

Trump’s Trade War Is Paralyzing Business / Economics / Protectionism

By: Patrick_Watson

Last week the Business Roundtable, an organization of large company leaders, released its quarterly CEO Economic Outlook Index.

The index tracks what executives expect for sales, capital spending, and hiring over the next six months.

The good news is the index has been above its historic average for 10 consecutive quarters. The bad news is, it fell the last five of those quarters.

CEO optimism peaked in Q1 2018, following a climb that began in Q4 2016. Now in Q2 2019, much of the confidence is gone.

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Economics

Thursday, June 20, 2019

The Longer the US Sino-Tariff Wars Go On, the Harder It Will Be to Undo the Damage / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

Compared to pre-2008 crisis levels, world economic growth has plummeted by half and is at risk of a long-term, hard-to-reverse stagnation. Returning to global integration and multilateral reconciliation could dramatically change the scenario

Since spring 2017, the US-led tariff wars have effectively undermined the global recovery. In the past years, global economy has navigated across several scenarios. Now it is approaching the edge.

I have been following four generic scenarios on the prospects of global economic growth since the U.S. 2016 election. The first two scenarios represent variants of “recoupling." In these cases, global integration prevails, despite tensions. In the next two scenarios, global integration will fail, either in part and regionally or fully and globally.
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Economics

Sunday, June 16, 2019

Why Hedge Fund Manager Ray Dalio Is Wrong on Capitalism / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

Ray Dalio is the thoughtful, somewhat controversial founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, which he started in 1975.

While much of his writing is private, I (and many others) peruse every word we can of his and the Bridgewater team’s thinking. I find it to be some of the most interesting market commentary I read.

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Economics

Saturday, June 15, 2019

Will the US Economy Fall into Recession? Or Will It Accelerate? / Economics / US Economy

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The current economic expansion has just equaled with the longest boom in the US history. Is that not suspicious? We invite you to read our today’s article, which provide you with the valuable lessons from the 1990s expansion for the gold market and find out whether the US economy will die of old age.

Lessons from the 1990s Expansion for the Economy and the Gold Market

The current economic expansion has just equaled with the longest boom in the US history. Unless the sky falls in the next few weeks, we will celebrate a new record in July. Is that not suspicious?

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Economics

Friday, June 14, 2019

The American Dream Is Alive and Well - in China / Economics / China Economy

By: Ellen_Brown

Home ownership has been called “the quintessential American dream.” Yet today less than 65% of American homes are owner occupied, and more than 50% of the equity in those homes is owned by the banks. Compare China, where, despite facing one of the most expensive real estate markets in the world, a whopping 90% of families can afford to own their homes.

Over the last decade, American wages have stagnated and U.S. productivity has consistently been outpaced by China’s. The U.S. government has responded by engaging in a trade war and imposing stiff tariffs in order to penalize China for what the White House deems unfair trade practices. China’s industries are said to be propped up by the state and to have significantly lower labor costs, allowing them to dump cheap products on the U.S. market, causing prices to fall and forcing U.S. companies out of business. The message to middle America is that Chinese labor costs are low because their workers are being exploited in slave-like conditions at poverty-level wages.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

The Privatization of US Indo-Pacific Vision - Project 2049, Armitage, Budget Ploys and Taiwan Nexus / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Dan_Steinbock

In the Shangri-La Summit, the Trump administration introduced a new, muscular Indo-Pacific strategy. It is fueled by private interests of corporations, defense contractors and foreign governments - not by the interests of the United States, China or emerging Asia.

Recently, the Pentagon and State Department informally notified Congress of a potential $2 billion deal with Taiwan, which includes the first-time sale of one of the US Army’s top tanks, drawing protests from China.

In the Shangri-La Dialogue, which took place only days before, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan pledged the United States would no longer "tiptoe" around Chinese behavior in Asia and warned about the new US “toolkit of coercion.”

Here’s the real key to the new Indo-Pacific stance, however: While emphasizing US commitment to the region, Shanahan urged US allies and partners to increase defense spending. What the Trump administration calls “burden sharing” is predicated on the idea that Asian economies should increasingly "buy American" military hardware from Pentagon contractors, even if it would split the region and undermine the promise of the Asian Century.
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Economics

Friday, June 07, 2019

US China Trade War Will Start a Recession, or Worse… / Economics / Protectionism

By: Patrick_Watson

The logic of Donald Trump’s multi-front trade war, if there is any, is increasingly obscure.

The tangled mix of policies isn’t accomplishing its stated goals and seems unlikely to ever do so. Meanwhile, it hurts the Americans it should supposedly help.

Regardless, it’s happening, and it has consequences… none of them good.

The president’s latest move to impose escalating tariffs on imports from Mexico is the trade equivalent of “going nuclear.”

Judging by his tweets, Trump thinks it will solve multiple problems: trade, drugs, immigration, and crime.

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Economics

Thursday, June 06, 2019

Trump Is Making the Same Trade Mistake That Started the Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: John_Mauldin

We all wonder if Trump’s trade actions are as random as they appear or if there is a broader strategy.

Some of my contacts argue that the relatively strong US economy allows the administration to take a harder line than would normally be advisable.

The thinking is that we can ride out a trade war better than China can.

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