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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, July 13, 2021

How Will Remote Work Impact the U.K. economy? / Economics / UK Economy

By: Sumeet_Manhas

When the pandemic hit the U.K., millions of knowledge and office workers were forced to work from home. Regarding productivity and work/life balance, remote work has proved to be a success in many instances. The consequences for the overall economy may not be so favourable if remote working becomes a permanent arrangement.

Historically, national-scale crises have a tendency to revolutionise societies and the way that we work. In the fourteenth century, for example, the Black Death plagued (literally) Europe. Approximately one-third of Europe’s population died from the plague. As a result, many historians believe that labour-saving devices such as the printing press were developed to adapt to the lack of workers. Some historians have also theorised that the Black Death led to the expeditions into “new lands” that occurred in the decades that followed. Perhaps travelling on a boat to parts unknown seemed relatively safe following a pandemic that killed around 25 million people. 

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Economics

Monday, July 05, 2021

China's xiaokang prosperity source of global hope / Economics / China Economy

By: MoneyMetals

Amid the centenary festivities, China’s success in development shows how peace and stability can foster sustained development, prosperity - and hope.

At the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party of China (CPC), Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, declared the completion of the goal of building China into “a moderately prosperous society in all respects.”

The achievement of this quest for xiaokang, which ensures basic security and welfare, is predicated on four decades of reforms and opening-up policies.
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Economics

Saturday, July 03, 2021

Central Banks RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION BIG PICTURE! US Trending Towards Hyperinflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

I know it can get a bit tiring to hear me bang on with the mantra of rampant money printing inflation, BUT one can tend to get lost in the detail i.e. looking at individual stocks and assets and forget the BIG PICTURE which really is one of RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION!

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Economics

Friday, July 02, 2021

US Labor Shortage May Be Permanent / Economics / Employment

By: Patrick_Watson

According to some business owners and Wall Street pundits, US employers can’t hire enough people because unemployment benefits are too high. We’re paying people not to work, they say.

Certainly, some people who could work are milking the system. That’s sad, but is it the only reason all those jobs are unfilled? Probably not.

Nonetheless, several governors have decided to end the federally funded enhanced benefits. Instead of the planned September expiration, they will now disappear as soon as next week in some states.

If, in fact, benefits are what’s keeping people from working, labor shortages should ease in the states that end them. I think there’s more to the story, though. This problem was already there before those extra benefits. It’s more the result of larger trends that aren’t stopping. If anything, they are getting worse.
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Economics

Wednesday, June 30, 2021

The “Long COVID” Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Patrick_Watson

According to some analysts, higher inflation is on its way. Americans will spend like crazy and drive prices higher as the pandemic recedes.

That’s the theory. It may be right, for a while, but we also have other problems. For one, the pandemic hasn’t ended; it’s simply become optional.

Most US adults can now “opt out” by getting vaccinated. The shots, while not perfect, are proving highly effective. Unfortunately, many are opting to stay vulnerable. We also can’t yet vaccinate children under 12.

This may be an economically significant problem soon. But even if the virus disappears, we are going to spend years repairing the economic damage already done… and more may be coming.
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Economics

Tuesday, June 29, 2021

Demand-Driven Price Hikes Are Underway / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, thinks most of the near-term inflation he foresees will be demand-driven. The fact that a lot of people have a lot of spending money will push prices even higher.

At Mauldin Economics' 2021 Strategic Investment Conference, he posed the question: Where did this cash come from? Check out this chart...
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Economics

Sunday, June 27, 2021

Two Reasons Hyperinflation Is Unlikely / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Kelsey_Williams

The correct definition of inflation is “the debasement of money by government and central banks“.  

The effects of inflation show up in the form of higher prices for all goods and services.

Hyperinflation is defined as “out-of-control general price increases in an economy, …typically measuring more than 50% per month.”  (source)

There are two specific reasons why hyperinflation re: out of control general price increases for all goods and services, possible US dollar collapse, etc., is unlikely.

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Economics

Monday, June 21, 2021

Feel the Inflationary Heartbeat / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

Not all inflation is created equal. Peter Boockvar, CIO at Bleakley Advisory Group, has his finger on the economy’s pulse. And for the last year or so, he’s felt an inflationary heartbeat.

Peter, who is the author of The Boock Report, in which he flash-analyzes the latest economic data in handy bite-size multiple emails per day, makes an important distinction between goods inflation and services inflation.

At Mauldin Economics' 2021 Strategic Investment Conference in May, Peter explained that they have been behaving differently. Looking at services inflation (ex-energy) within the Consumer Price Index, he showed that it averaged around 2.8% in the 20-year period leading up to the pandemic.
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Economics

Saturday, June 19, 2021

Hyperinflationary Expectations: Reflections on Cryptocurrency and the Markets / Economics / HyperInflation

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger offers insights from bear markets of the past to illuminate the "business of money." How quickly we forget.

In each of the last five bear markets since the 1970s, I have etched into my neural storage unit memories as strong and clear as if they happened yesterday. Each one of those nasty declines were accompanied with events that marked the tops and bottoms, consistently found in errant behaviors, and whether they originate from greed, fear or desperation, they were memorable.

Some of those events were the irrational decisions of the investment industry, which always increases staff at the tops and reduces staff at major bottoms. It is found in the emotion-charged decisions of clients who would write letters of complaint because I would not them buy shares in the Hot Stock of the Month, usually some dilly named "Underground Airlines" or "Rectal Gas."

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Economics

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION BIG PICTURE! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

I know it can get a bit tiring to hear me bang on with the mantra of rampant money printing inflation, BUT one can tend to get lost in the detail i.e. looking at individual stocks and assets and forget the BIG PICTURE which really is one of RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION!

For instance the stimulus that all nations have implemented is far in excess of the temporary loss of GDP due to Covid i.e. the US suffered a 10% drop from peak to trough in GDP, about $2 trillion's worth but has printed $5 trillion in response to which is about 25% of GDP!

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Economics

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

The Federal Reserve and Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Handbury

The Federal Reserve a$$holes puckered up when the April CPI/PPI figures came in, and probably puckered up even more when the May figures came in.  These Fed nerds (who never got the girl/guy in high school), are dictating the monetary policy for the world.  They are providing immense stimulation to the economy, yet have decided that any inflation arising from it is “transitory”.  These stimuli include the following major impacts on supply and demand of goods that can lead to inflation of prices:

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Economics

Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Transitory Inflation Debate / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

Inflation is running white-hot right now, and the reason is clear. It is because the Treasury poured $6 trillion into the economy between March of 2020 to March of 2021. That amounts to nearly $50,000 per US family in the name of pandemic relief. According to David Stockman, the government's largess was equal to 7.5 times the $800 billion of economic growth lost due to the various lockdowns and restrictions—both self-imposed or mandated. This time around the money wasn't just sent to Wall Street, as it was in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Covid-19 was a perfect excuse to deploy Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) directly to state and local governments, consumers, and businesses as well.

In other words, the government didn't just re-liquefy the banking system and then maybe hope consumers would receive some of the monetary crumbs as an ancillary consequence. The various virus-related rescue packages circumvented banks and pushed funds directly to the mass population. Paying people to lay fallow while at the same time giving them money to actually increase their consumption habits is a perfect recipe for rapidly rising Consumer Price Inflation. However, such a feat cannot be duplicated anytime soon without destroying the US dollar and the full faith and credit in our sovereign bond market.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 02, 2021

Biden’s Alternate Inflation Universe / Economics / Inflation

By: Gary_Tanashian

As Biden Speaks, remember the economy is run by the Fed and it is run by inflation

Of course, a career politician will be adept at framing the narrative just right, adding to it, tweaking it and layering on fancy words and concepts in order to veil the true and unbelievably simple fact that the inflation started under a very different presidential administration and continues to this day. The only difference is that the party that won the election gets to take a bow for the broad results that have little or nothing to do with them.

Biden goes on offensive against economic critics, argues rising wages show his agenda is working

Well, his agenda was to push rising employment costs into the economy with the inflation the Fed created out of thin air. So that is true. I am not against raising minimum wages under this vile inflationary system because low income people cannot keep up with the pace of the inflation the Fed has created. Under an inflationary regime, an inflationary (Keynesian) system, you can’t go with the old conservative method of letting each earn his or her way based on merit. At some point – due to inflation – the goalpost has been moved too far away.

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Economics

Monday, May 31, 2021

Fed Offers No Holiday from Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Heading into Memorial Day weekend, American motorists will see the highest prices at the pump since 2014, according to AAA. Gas prices now average $3.04 a gallon nationally – reflecting a jump of more than $1.00 compared to the same time last year.

A rising gasoline price is just one of many emerging symptoms of a larger inflation problem:

  • A lack of housing inventory, low interest rates, and surging costs for building materials are pushing home prices through the roof.
  • Billionaire Warren Buffett recently complained that he is seeing significant inflation pressures throughout the supply chains of businesses he owns.
  • Beef is becoming increasingly unaffordable for many grocery shoppers, and rising food costs are forcing already beleaguered restaurants to hike menu prices.
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Economics

Thursday, May 27, 2021

The Shifting US Economy: AI and Automation Lead the Way / Economics / AI

By: Submissions

The Biden administration is 125 days old, and things certainly feel different. What strategies are you employing to take advantage of the shift?

Things often change temporarily before reverting to a mean. Just like market instruments, changing political ideals can, do, and will change, before ultimately reverting back to a mean, or an average state.

Labor force configurations have changed drastically, partially due to the pandemic. What was once everyone’s dream “to work from home”, went from a wish to a potentially harsh reality and has stayed there for many people.

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Economics

Thursday, May 27, 2021

Are US Inflation Fears Destabilising the Global Markets? / Economics / Inflation

By: Sumeet_Manhas

The US dollar has enjoyed renewed highs of late, with this trend at least partially the result of forex positioning and a pronounced increase in net short positions as investors brace themselves for a depreciation in the value of the greenback.

However, this also betrays rising rates of US inflation, which recently peaked at 2.6% and pushed the dollar even higher against both the pound and the Euro.

But are rising inflation fears beginning to destabilise the global markets, and what does this tell us about the influence of inflation on stocks and shares throughout the world?

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Economics

Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Inflation Easing, Now What? / Economics / Inflation

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 refused to keep early gains, and reversed back into no man‘s land – on little convincing volume. For now, we remain chopping below my 4,180s level, conquering which on a closing basis would a bullish achievement. Until that happens on convincing internals, fake moves in both directions would remain with us.

The Fed telegraphing the talk about talking taper is a first step in preparing the markets not to get surprised by the actual deed, but how far is that one really? Stocks, bonds and currencies aren‘t reacting much – it‘s only commodities that are in consolidation mode, but this can be chalked down to inflation expectations calming down over the prior three trading days. Until the Fed truly moves or makes its forward guidance as unequivocal as can be in this respect, the markets would be in a doubting attitude (or at a minimum, a wait and see one):

(…) The market simply isn‘t convinced the Fed is serious about taking on inflation through (gradual) removal of the punch bowl – or about shaping its forward guidance credibly this way (yet). Inflation expectations are cooling down a little, and the Treasury market is tracking them closely. But this doesn‘t mean that bonds are taking the central bank seriously – this move is part and parcel of the transitory vs. getting (practically permanently unless a Fed game changer arrives – still unlikely) elevated inflation readings debate.

While I think that the red hot CPI inflation would die down a little (i.e. not keep rising ever as steeply as was the case with Wednesday‘s data) once the year on year base to compare it against normalizes, a permanently elevated plateau of high and rising inflation would be a reality for more than foreseeable future simply because the Fed would be as behind as Arthur Burns was in fighting the 1970s inflation, and upward price pressures in the job market pressures would kick in.

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Economics

Friday, May 21, 2021

How the Pandemic Is Changing the Labor Market / Economics / Employment

By: Patrick_Watson

When it comes to the US jobs situation, the “One of these things is not like the others” song from Sesame Street comes to mind.

We have two competing narratives. Official data says millions are unemployed and seeking work. At the same time, businesses say they can’t find enough workers.

A skills mismatch between the workers who need jobs and the job openings themselves isn’t unusual. But many of today’s available jobs don’t require advanced education.
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Economics

Friday, May 21, 2021

Inflation Bunker Mentality: 'Striking' Similarities Between Now and the Inflationary 1970s / Economics / Inflation

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger examines the parallels between the present and the inflationary years of the mid-1970s, and also comments on how gold markets are responding.

For many of those following the writings of this "dithering old fool," who continues to hold an unfailing conviction in the strategic importance of gold and silver ownership in an otherwise out-of-control fiscal and monetary world, let me tell you a story about the 1970s.

I arrived in Saint Louis, Missouri, in the late summer of 1972, at the start of a magical four-year career as a student athlete at one of the top undergraduate business schools in the country. Populated largely by Jesuit educators, it also had many non-Jesuit professors in the twilight of their business careers that bestowed impressive anecdotes upon the collective psyches of the student population. In fact, it was a wonderful, coffee-sipping, Camel non-filter-chain-smoking finance professor who stood in front of the class in old De Smet Hall one morning, tripping the light fantastic about the implications of Richard Nixon abandoning the gold standard the year before and how it was going to cause massive inflation.

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Economics

Sunday, May 16, 2021

Inflation Going Stag / Economics / Stagflation

By: Gary_Tanashian

Stagflation in the offing, unless it’s not different this time…

As corporations continue to raise wages, market participants fear the Fed is wrong about supposedly “transitory” inflation, long-term Treasury bond yields resume the rally (bonds decline) manufacturers’ (ISM) costs keep rising, the Fed’s inflationary operation – a desperate monetary kick save if ever there was one – labors on.

The Fed has manipulated bonds and flooded the markets and the economy with funny munny created out of nowhere, as if by magic. As if by MMT (modern monetary theory) TMM (total market manipulation). So far, so good. Jerome Powell stands to be the first non-Bernanke winner of the Ben Bernanke Award for Heroism in the line of inflating a debt ridden economy.

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