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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, September 19, 2020

A Greater Economic Depression For The 21st Century / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Kelsey_Williams

Some are calling it the “Greater Depression” but that still makes last century’s Depression of the 1930’s the point of reference. The Great Depression of the 1930s was bad, but what we are facing now is worse.

The Depression Of The 21st Century will likely end up being the new singular event  of discussion and comparison for all financial and economic catastrophes.  Questions of how much worse and how long it will last are difficult to answer. Predictions about the type and strength of potential recovery could be premature.

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Economics

Thursday, September 17, 2020

Peak Financialism And Post-Capitalist Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Steven_Vincent

Summary

The protracted malaise of the 1970s, with high price inflation and GDP recession, signaled the advent of Peak Industrial Capitalism.

The maturation of the industrial sector of the economy and the onset of demographic growth challenges required the offsetting growth of the financial sector.

The standard of living has declined under Financialism, but the technology revolution has offset some of the negative associated trends.

Financialization has increasingly skimmed Economic Value out of the economic system into the pockets of a smaller and smaller group of elites as larger and larger percentages of the population have become more and more dependent on government programs.

What comes after Peak Financialization? Where do we go from here? As I have said in previous segments in this series, an Information-Based Economic System, Technocracy, Structural Unemployment and Universal Basic Income are some of the likely outcomes we can expect.

This article is part of an ongoing related series that explores an ongoing long-term secular systemic shift in markets, economics, politics and society. Readers might also like to read:

The protracted malaise of the 1970s, with high price inflation and GDP recession, signaled the advent of Peak Industrial Capitalism. The creation of Economic Value from the transformational processes of industrial production (manufacturing, mining, utilities) began to reach its limits of expansion and growth.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Warns of 10% Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Over the past month, gold has traded in a range with support around $1,900. Bulls have made a couple unsuccessful attempts to retake and hold above the $2,000 level following the sharp plunge below it on August 11th.

But we are likely to see a more decisive move in the gold market one way or the other in the days ahead.

The near-term outlook for precious metals markets may be determined by where the U.S. Dollar Index heads next. It has been basing out since August after trending lower earlier in the summer.

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Economics

Sunday, September 13, 2020

Is this the End of Capitalism? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Nadeem_Walayat

If one looks at the facts of rampant government money printing to monetize government debt, permanent deficit spending on an epic scale, debt to GDP north of 100% all to finance social projects such as the UK government paying 80% of furloughed employee salaries, with similar or even greater government interventions in nations such as Germany. We'll this begs the question, how can our economies still be labeled as capitalist?

We are not living in capitalist nations, the slogans might be all about free market economies, capitalism, and theories preached of the boom bust cycle in the financial press and taught at universities, instead we tend to have the booms without the busts! Because we are NOT really living in capitalist economies!

Then what are we living in?

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Economics

Friday, September 11, 2020

The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

QE4EVER!

Virtually everything that cannot be easily printed is rocketing higher which includes GOLD! It's not hard to see why as a consequence of rampant money printing by governments across the world in the wake of the Coronavirus Pandemic economic depression. For instance the UK alone looks set to print about £550 billion this year most of which will be monetized by the Bank of England so that the government can pay the wages of about 1/3rd of Britains workforce for a good 6 months with likely many more economic stimulus measures to follow over the next 6 months towards fighting the Pandemics dire economic consequences.

Whilst the United States has printed $2.2 trillion of stimulus dollars to date with at least another $1.3 trillion to come, that's $3.5 trillion which dwarfs the 2008 financial crisis bailout of $720 billion. Funneling stimulus checks on an epic scale into the back pockets of every working age citizen. Printing money has REAL consequences which is REAL inflation hence what we have been witnessing in markets across the spectrum, and whist I have yet to take a peak at the housing markets, I would not be surprised if the UK housing market at least will start to experience a money printing inflationary boom over the coming year, this despite the fact that people have less disposable income to buy housing, but more on that in a future article.

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Economics

Thursday, September 10, 2020

Inflation by Fiat / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

The Fed has now officially changed its inflation target from 2%, to one that averages above 2% in order to compensate for the years where inflation was below its target. First off, the Fed has a horrific track record with meeting its first and primary mandate of stable prices. Then, in the wake of the Great Recession, it redefined stable prices as 2% inflation—even though that means the dollar’s purchasing power gets cut in half in 36 years. Now, following his latest Jackson Hole speech, Chair Powell has adopted a new definition of stable prices; one where its new mandate will be to bring inflation above 2% with the same degree and duration in which it has fallen short of its 2% target.

Just to be clear, the Fed has no idea what causes inflation. It also deliberately goes way out of its way to under measure it. Is it any wonder then that the Fed's historical record proves it has little ability to meet its own inflation target? As I explained in a commentary written a couple of month ago, the Fed has a tremendous amount of difficulty controlling inflation in either direction. In 7 out of the last 12 years, the Fed has been unable to achieve average annualized CPI of at least 2%. Therefore, 58% of the time the Fed has failed to reach its minimum inflation goal.  Conversely, inflation spiked to double digits by 1975 and, after a brief pause in ’76-’77, eventually soared to 14.6% by early 1980. During this process, our central bank found it necessary to raise rates from 3.75% in February 1971, all the way to 20% by the middle of 1980. That doesn’t sound like inflation is easily managed does it? But the Fed is fond of trying to convince investors that is the case.

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Economics

Thursday, September 10, 2020

Unemployment Rate Drops. Will It Drag Gold Down? / Economics / Employment

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The U.S. labor market improved in August, although headlines paint too rosy a picture. What does it all mean for the gold market?

Great news for the U.S. labor market: according to the BLS, the American economy regained 1.4 million jobs, while the unemployment rate fell below 10 percent for the first time in the pandemic era! To be more precise, the unemployment rate declined from 10.2 percent in July to 8.4 percent in August, as the chart below shows.

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Economics

Sunday, August 30, 2020

3 Truths That Will Define This 3-Part US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

The economy recovery, when it comes—and it will—is going to be uneven.

In some parts of the economy, it's already starting. Other parts will be in what can only be described as a depression for quite some time. And still others are going to take off like a rocket ship.

This three-part economy won't fit compactly into the V- or U-shaped recovery that some are predicting (read: hoping) for. More likely, it will look like a "K."

Whether it's K-shaped or some other to-be-determined letter, there are three truths that will define this economic recovery:

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Economics

Friday, August 28, 2020

The US Economy Needs More Than a Vaccine / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Michael_Pento

The hype and hope being promulgated by Wall Street and D.C. is that the imminent and well-advertised approval of vaccines will bring the economy back to what they characterize as its pre-pandemic state of health. However, even if these prophylactics are very efficient in controlling the pandemic and lead the economy back to “normal”, the state of the economy was anything but normal and healthy prior to the Wuhan outbreak.  

The year over year change in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 from the trailing 12 months was just 2.3%. Admittedly, this wasn’t indicative of a terrible economy; but it also was very far from what many have portrayed as the best economy anyone has ever seen on the planet. Most importantly, to even get to that rather pedestrian level of just trend GDP growth for the year, the Fed had to slash interest rates three times in the five months prior to the start of 2020. And, please also remember that the Fed felt it necessary to return to Quantitative Easing (QE) in order to re-liquify the entire banking system and save the markets from crashing.

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Economics

Thursday, August 27, 2020

What the Covid-19 Economic Recovery Really Looks Like / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: John_Mauldin

The media and politicians like to talk about "the economy" as a general term. These days, there is a lot of talk about it having V- or U-shaped recovery.

But within the economy right now are several different economies, and they won't see recovery at the same time or rate. So if we have to choose a letter for what the recovery will look like, maybe it should be a “K.”

That's because some will go up while others go down. This is already happening and apparent, as Heather Long illustrates for The Washington Post:

"This dichotomy is evident in many facets of the economy, especially in employment. Jobs are fully back for the highest wage earners, but fewer than half the jobs lost this spring have returned for those making less than $20 an hour, according to a new labor data analysis by John Friedman, an economics professor at Brown University and co-director of Opportunity Insights."

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Economics

Wednesday, August 26, 2020

We Have an Economic Eight-Body Problem / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: John_Mauldin

If you have three large objects that have gravitational impact on each other, you can determine where they have been in the past.

However, you cannot predict where they will be in the future. At least, not without great difficulty.

In physics, this is called the three-body problem.

In economics, we are well beyond the three-body problem. I think it is more like an eight-body problem. See if you agree:

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Economics

Wednesday, August 26, 2020

What Makes This Recession Different From the Rest / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: John_Mauldin

"It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job;
it's a depression when you lose yours."

Harry S. Truman, 33rd US President

In recent weeks, numerous commentators started to suggest the US and the world are entering a depression.

For some areas of the economy, that is clearly true. But not every area.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, August 23, 2020

CPI Goes Up in July. Will Inflation Dragon Take to the Air with Gold? / Economics / Inflation

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

CPI rises again in July. But will the inflation dragon take to the air, taking gold with it?

The U.S. CPI inflation rate rose 0.6 percent in July, for the second month in a row. The move was driven to a large extent by higher energy prices (the energy index increased 5.1 percent in June as the gasoline index rose 12.3 percent). The core CPI rose also 0.6 percent, following a 0.1 percent drop in May. It was the biggest monthly increase in the core rate since 1991.

On an annual basis, the overall CPI increased 1 percent (seasonally adjusted), following 0.7 percent increase in June. Meanwhile, the core CPI rose 1.6 percent, which implies the acceleration from 1.2 percent recorded in the previous month. So, as the chart below shows, inflation remains low, but it is no longer very low.
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Economics

Thursday, August 20, 2020

Economic Data Suggests Reopening, not Recovery. Will Gold Re-Rally Now? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Retail sales growth has slowed down. What does it mean for the U.S. economy and the gold market?

Retail sales increased 1.2 percent in July. The growth was worse than expected, which hit the U.S. stock market. As the chart below shows, the number was also much weaker than in the two previous months (8.4 percent gain in June and 18.3 percent jump in May), when it seemed that the economy started to rebound.
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Economics

Sunday, August 16, 2020

Hyper-Chaotic Expectations Could Collapse US Economic Recovery Expectations / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As much as we may not want to deal with the reality of the situation, recent news from the state of California suggests it and many other states may be reaching the fiscal boundaries of the COVID-19 economic contraction.  The reality of the economic situation is that when consumers are restricted from normal activities, taxes, sales, and revenues decrease for the state exponentially.  States that depend on consumers and business activity with very large budgets are at greater risk of experiencing immediate fiscal issues the longer the COVID-19 virus event continues.  A recent Moody’s Analytics article suggested Nevada, Hawaii, New York, Washington, Florida, DC, and Connecticut would be hit the hardest by the COVID-19 virus.

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Economics

Monday, August 10, 2020

Has the Fed Let the Inflation Genie Out of the Bottle? / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

The dramatic ascent of precious metals markets this summer reflects what could be just the start of a longer-term decline and fall in the Federal Reserve Note's value and status.

With gold prices surpassing $2,000/oz recently, the monetary metal has now made new all-time highs versus all the world’s major fiat currencies. Gold is, as former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan has acknowledged, the “ultimate money.”

The Fed, by contrast, is the ultimate inflator.

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Economics

Monday, August 10, 2020

Supply & Demand For Money – The End of Inflation? / Economics / Inflation

By: Kelsey_Williams

A current headline says “fears of currency debasement drive gold price higher”. Seems reasonable; and it is.

Historically, governments have been “debasing” their currencies for centuries. The debasement leads to a loss of purchasing power in the currency in use.

Since gold is original money and has proven itself to be a true store of value, then it should not be unexpected that gold’s higher price over time reflects that currency debasement.

The debasement leads to a loss of purchasing power in the currency in use.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Protracted G7 Economic Contraction – or Multiyear Global Depression / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Dan_Steinbock

Global growth prospects are deteriorating. Instead of a V-shaped recovery in the 2nd quarter, advanced economies will face historical carnage and a prolonged contraction. But there’s still worse ahead.

Current estimates for major advanced economies remain too optimistic, due to the mismanagement of the COVID-19, belated responses and premature exits, which have now caused far-earlier-than-expected secondary virus waves. As a result, the hoped-for V-shaped recovery will not happen in the 2nd quarter.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

How to benefit from the big US Infrastructure push / Economics / Infrastructure

By: Richard_Mills

The US economy continues to flounder like an East Coast freighter bashed by a mid-winter Nor-easter. 

Fifty million claims is the latest unemployment milestone surpassed by the American workforce during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic that has drubbed the United States worse than any other country including China, where it started. 

In a stark contrast of how the two biggest economies have fared, on Wednesday China reported its gross domestic product grew by 2.5% in the second quarter, beating analysts’ expectations and rebounding from a sickly first quarter when the country was assailed by the coronavirus. (Q1 output fell by 6.5%, the first quarterly GDP decline in China since 1992 when official records started being kept)

The news came as lockdowns to contain a second wave of covid-19 eased, and Beijing rolled out stimulus measures to keep its economy growing, including fiscal spending, cutting interest rates and lowering the amount of cash that banks must hold in reserve. 

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Economics

Sunday, July 19, 2020

Help the Economy by Going Outside / Economics / US Economy

By: Patrick_Watson

COVID-19 cases are growing fast in large parts of the US. The same folks who said the virus would just go away now say not to worry because fewer people are dying.

A lower mortality rate helps, but it’s still too high. The sheer number of sick people is straining hospital capacity some places. Viruses don’t care what anyone thinks; they just spread until something stops them.

The economy can’t recover if people fear infection everywhere they go. We need to balance public health and economic necessity.

Fortunately, scientists are learning how to reduce risk with fewer economic side effects.

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