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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

We Are in for Decades of Ultra-Loose Monetary Policy / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Jared_Dillian

President Trump recently nominated Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She is the United States director for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which I had never heard of until her nomination.

Shelton is a Republican and believes in the adoption of a gold standard. She currently believes in lowering interest rates, after spending the Obama years criticizing the Fed for lowering interest rates.

You may wonder how a person can be in favor of a gold standard and also for lowering interest rates at the same time.

I am wondering that, too.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 22, 2019

What the World Doesn’t Need Now is Lower Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: Michael_Pento

The Q2 earnings season is upon us and the risks to the rally that started after the worst December on record at the close of last year is in serious jeopardy. We received a glimpse of this with some of the current companies that have reported. For example, to understand how dangerous this earnings reporting season can be, take a look at what one of the largest US multinational firms had to say recently after it reported earnings. The Minnesota-based Fastenal, which is the largest fastener distributor in North America, reported worse-than-expected second-quarter earnings and revenue. Shares of Fastenal promptly tanked more than 4%. But what the management said about the quarter was very interesting. The company said in its press release that its strategy to raise prices to offset tariffs placed to date on products sourced from China were not sufficient to also counter general inflation in the marketplace.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Federal Debt Ceiling Reached as Federal Spending Rages / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

The federal government will soon run up against its self-imposed borrowing cap once again.

Current estimates are for the government to max out its credit limit at a little over $22 trillion in early September. Congress goes on recess in August, so there is some pressure to address the cap right now.

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has been fulfilling what seems to be the most sacred responsibility of his position: borrowing money. It’s one that each of his predecessors has also undertaken, without fail and without regard to party affiliation, in recent decades.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Boost your Trading Results - FREE eBook / Interest-Rates / Learn to Trade

By: Submissions

Dear Reader,

Whether you’re just starting out in trading or you’ve been at it a while, it’s best to keep things simple.

Like our award-winning trading strategy and it's two easy to use indicators.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 12, 2019

The Hidden Reason Why Fed and "Systemically Important" Banks Oppose a Gold Standard / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

Chairman Powell’s testimony this week was closely scrutinized not just for its economic implications but also for its political overtones. Powell cited “trade tensions” as cause for concern about the strength of the global economy. He clearly seemed to be blaming President Trump’s tariffs.

But if the tariffs are what ultimately move the Fed to cut rates, Trump will have finally gotten what he wants out of Powell. In recent weeks, Trump has stepped up his attacks on the central bank, calling it the biggest problem facing the economy, floating the idea of firing Powell, and suggesting his administration would match China’s and Europe’s "currency manipulation game."

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Government-Pumped Student Loan Bubble Sets Up Next Financial Crisis / Interest-Rates / Student Finances

By: MoneyMetals

Presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are promising as much as $1.6 trillion in student debt forgiveness for millions of borrowers. Critics smell a cynical campaign ploy to try to buy the youth vote.

How is it either realistic or fair to declare an entire category of debt to be assumed by taxpayers?

Regardless, pie-in-the-sky proposals to cancel student debt shed light on a very down-to-earth problem for not only college students and recent graduates – but also for the economy and financial markets.

Student loans now rank as the second largest category of American consumer debt – bigger than credit cards, bigger than auto loans, and behind only mortgages.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 05, 2019

The Fed May Give Trump His Interest Rate Cut, but It Won’t Help / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Patrick_Watson

Investors are in a buying mood despite many economic warning signs. Why?

For some, it’s because they expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and otherwise “stimulate” the economy. They believe (correctly) it would drive stock and real estate prices higher.

At the risk of stating the obvious… higher asset prices mainly benefit those who own the assets. Which, in the stock market’s case, is not most Americans.
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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Elliott Wave: Market Signaling Fed to Cut Interest Rates Soon / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: EWI

We have tracked the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions for years. This week, the Fed once again decided to keep the funds rate unchanged. We expect the Fed to change course soon.

We have tracked the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions for years.

In December, we wrote an article titled "Interest Rates Win Again as Fed Follows the Market," where we observed that although most pundits believe that central banks set interest rates, central banks actually follow the freely traded bond market in their rates decisions.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Testing the Fed’s Narrative with the Fed’s Data: QT Edition / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: F_F_Wiley

“The fact that financial markets responded in very similar ways … lends credence to the view that these actions had the expected effects on markets and are thereby providing significant support to job creation and the economy.” —Ben Bernanke defends the idea that markets and the economy respond significantly to quantitative easing

“… it will be like watching paint dry, that this will just be something that runs quietly in the background.” —Janet Yellen refutes the idea that markets and the economy respond significantly to quantitative tightening

It doesn’t take much calculation to see that the Fed’s position on quantitative tightening (QT) is blatantly inconsistent with its position on quantitative easing (QE). You only need to notice that the excerpts above, taken together, violate the following pair of postulates:

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Why Bond Investors MUST Be Paying Attention to Puerto Rico / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Rodney_Johnson

They lie, cheat, and steal? No way!

In 2014, Puerto Rico issued $3.5 billion in bonds backed by the full faith and credit of the Commonwealth. Now the island’s fiscal managers, a group known as the PROMESA board, an entity that Congress created, claims those bonds are worthless.

While investors put down their hard-earned cash to buy the bonds, the board members have claimed in court that, because the debt issuance put the island over its legal debt limit, the debt should be canceled.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Interest Rates Square Minus Zero / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I intentionally start writing this mere minutes away from Fed chair Jay Powell’s latest comments. Intentionally, because the importance ascribed to those comments only means we have gotten so far removed from what capitalism and free markets are supposed to be about, that it’s pathetic. The comments mean something for rich socialists, but nothing for the man in the street. Or, rather, they mean that the man in the street will get screwed worse for longer.

And it’s not just the Fed, all central banks have it and do it. They play around with rates and definitions and semantics until the cows can never come home again. And they have such levels of control over their respective societies and economies that the mere use of the word “markets” should result in loud and unending ridicule. There are no markets, because there is no price discovery, the Fed and ECB and BOJ got it all covered. Any downside risks, that is.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Most Income Investors Are Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: Jared_Dillian

Income investing is hard.

Let’s say you buy 20 bonds. Each of them yields 5%. Nineteen out of 20 mature at par and you get your money back, with interest.

One of them defaults. You are back where you started!

It is said that income investing is a negative art. Your goal isn’t to pick the winners—it’s to avoid the losers. You want to pick winners, invest in stocks. Have you seen a chart of Beyond Meat? Bonds generally don’t do that.

It is also said that income investing is like picking up nickels in front of a steamroller. You’re earning a 4–5% coupon, and you could get whacked pretty much any day, just like what happened at Toys “R” Us. It is a bit like selling puts.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 17, 2019

Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve

By: Robert_Ross

The markets are in the middle of a once-in-a-decade event.

And it says a lot about what you should do with your money right now.

I’m talking about a critical recession indicator called the yield curve inversion—or the Diamond Cross.

As you may recall, a Diamond Cross happens when the difference between the yield on the 10-year Treasury note and the 3-month Treasury bill is negative. This is a telltale sign that the economy is slowing.

The Diamond Cross popped up briefly in March, only to return on May 15. Last week, it was the steepest, or most severe it’s been since April 2007.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Fed Running Out of Time and Conventional Weapons / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

The buy and hold mantra from Wall Street Carnival Barkers should have died decades ago. After all, just buying stocks has gotten you absolutely crushed in China for more than a decade. And in Japan, you have been buried under an avalanche of losses for the last three decades. And even in the good old USA, you wouldn’t want to just own stocks if the economy was about to enter another deflationary recession/depression like 2008. Likewise, you wouldn’t want to own any bonds at all in a high-inflation environment as we had during the ’70s.

The truth is that the mainstream financial media is, for the most part, clueless and our Fed is blatantly feckless.

The Fed has gone from claiming in late 2018 that it would hike rates another four times, to now saying that it is open to actually start cutting rates very soon.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, June 09, 2019

The Fed Stops Pretending / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

Well, it didn't take much and it didn't take long. After years of delays, a tentative start, many cautious pauses along the way, and a top speed that never really hit cruising velocity, the Fed has taken the first available off-ramp on the road towards policy "normalization." In a speech on Tuesday this week in Chicago, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delighted Wall Street by signaling that the Fed may soon deliver the gift that investors had been hoping for...the first interest rate cut in almost a decade.

While many savvy economists should have seen this coming, as late as October of last year, almost no one in the financial world thought that the Fed would so easily abandon its long-held bias without a gale force recession blowing them off course. But, in reality, all it took was a light breeze to force a 180-degree turnaround.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Bond Market Shows Us The Power Of The Dark Side / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

First, I want to begin this article by thanking all those who read my articles for the amazing outpouring of support and prayers for my wife who is recovering from a freak accident. So, with her sleeping right now, I thought I would pen another article to at least keep myself somewhat busy.

Over the years, I have published many price trend change expectations which have hit quite well. Some examples include the top to gold in 2011 at 1915 (with gold topping at 1921), the bottom in the dollar in 2011 (with an expectation of a multi-year rally to within pennies of our target struck six years later), many major turning points in the S&P500, and many other calls throughout the last 8 years I have been publishing my market calls.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Warning… Sub-Prime 2.0 Is About to Blow Up / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2019

By: Graham_Summers

For those how pay attention, the Fed has already broadcast what the next crisis will be…

Corporate bonds…

When the Fed cut interest rates to zero in 2008… and held them there for even years straight… it gave the “green light” to corporations to go on massive borrowing spree.

After all… if you’re the CEO of a company… and taking on debt suddenly costs NOTHING… why wouldn’t you start borrowing?

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

US Yield Curve Inverted Again. Will Gold Shine Now? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The U.S. yield curve has inverted again, and it has done so to the widest level since 2007. How much of a reason to worry is that actually? A sky-is-falling moment lurking ahead? If so, what chance of saving us does gold have?

Another Yield Curve Inversion Occurs

It’s really getting more serious. Another yield curve inversion… And a much deeper one – that’s frightening!

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, June 02, 2019

Gold Standard, Federal Reserve, Economic Law / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Kelsey_Williams

In a recent opinion by Sebastian Mallaby, published in the Washington Post, the author and columnist says the following:

Money is an abstraction, a political confection, a set of castles built on air. No wonder it makes people feel queasy. Gold is tangible, immutable, somehow reliable and real; there will always be people who believe in it. But the truth is that modern central banking is one of those elite inventions that generally works. The gold standard has given way to the PhD standard, and we are all the better for it.”

In his article, Mr Mallaby presents his arguments as to the reason and logic that a gold standard will not work and that it is an idea which is out of date and inferior to the current system, i.e., “modern central banking”.

The opinions are a response to statements made by Judy Shelton,  currently under consideration for appointment as one of the seven governors on the Federal Reserve Board.

Mr. Mallaby refers to former President Reagan’s “nostalgia” abut the gold standard as being “curious” and says that “survival of this sentiment in 2019 is even more baffling”.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 01, 2019

Finding Record Investor Profits Hidden In The Fed Minutes / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Dan_Amerman

Sifting through the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to look for signals of changes in policy is a fixation for the financial media and the investment industry. Because both the stock and bond markets can reverse directions based upon the Fed's intentions for the direction of Fed Funds rates, there is an intense focus on finding signals for those intentions and whether the signals are changing.

However, like generals preparing for the last war - there is a strong case to be made that most analysis of the FOMC minutes is focusing on the details, while missing the big picture for the next recession (which could be growing more imminent).

As explored herein, the Fed itself is as much focused on how to change the "SOMA" to enable the strongest form of "MEP" in the event of another recession, as it is on Fed Funds rates.

When we get past the jargon, what the Fed is debating in plain sight are the specifics for how to give as much money as possible to some investors in the event of another recession, in the shortest time possible.

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