How Far Can the Stock Market S&P Index Slide?

By: Seven_Days_Ahead

The Technical Trader’s view:

WEEKLY CHART The full drama of the sell- off is clear. And the double attempt to break down through the 767 pivot that failed which establishes a massive support beneath the market even though there is no clear Bottom formation beneath the market - yet Now look closely at the rally. We can’t help but note that if the market can find support and push back up through the diagonal joining the two highs then a massive Reversal is in prospect. But, for the moment, that is conjecture. The recent pull-back has excited the bears yet the Prior High at 872 looks important...

The Macro Trader’s view:
A solid rally which began in March and extended into June suddenly halted, and over recent weeks has corrected lower. Hopes that a stronger-than-expected June non-farm payroll report was a sign of economic recovery, gave way, to fears the Fed would tighten interest rates sooner than expected as the month progressed.

Thereafter, traders began searching for any evidence that would support their anxiety that the tentative recovery signs were no more than a false dawn rather than the start of a long march out of recession

But where is the evidence for the recent rush of pessimism?

Ok, July’s non-farm payroll was worse than expected, but the trend is clearly improving. But until the June report, payrolls had been declining at a rate of 550K – 640K per month and there is a clear deceleration over the last two months of job destruction.

Additionally, the two ISM surveys, though still below the crucial 50 level, continue to improve with the non-manufacturing survey released on Monday standing at 47.0.

In the housing market data has yet to turn, so far only pending home sales are up, where as new and existing home sales continue to decline.

So in essence the economy hasn’t lapsed back into recession, it continues to emerge from it even if a return to growth hasn’t yet actually begun. That leaves the S&P balanced on a knife edge.

As Q2 earnings data is released over the coming weeks, market direction will be dictated by the strength or otherwise of corporate profitability and with Q2 GDP due out also this month, traders may receive a clear directional steer.

We judge the jury is out as far as stocks are concerned. We continue to expect the US economy to emerge from recession during the course of this year and start growing again late Q4 2009, or early Q1 2010. As soon as traders feel convinced of that scenario, stocks could shake off their current hesitancy and resume the rally, but much depends short/medium term on the upcoming earnings reporting season.   

Mark Sturdy
John Lewis

Seven Days Ahead
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Mark Sturdy, John Lewis & Philip Allwright, write exclusively for Seven Days Ahead a regulated financial advisor selling professional-level technical and macro analysis and high-performing trade recommendations with detailed risk control for banks, hedge funds, and expert private investors around the world. Check out our subscriptions.

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