We survived the brief market pullback so thus far September looks a bit safer than in previous years. The big question hanging over this market is whether the investment-led recovery will be given legs by a revival of consumption. The jury remains out on this as consumers are clearly saving more and undergoing an interesting transformation from spendthrift bubblemeisters to far more thrifty families. The danger is that we may catch Japan’s “paradox of thrift” disease: Japanese citizens have been so paranoid about the economy that they never spend enough to restore robust growth to the Land of the Setting Economic Sun.

For a more detailed analysis of whether consumers will fail in the follow-through and lead us into an October stock market crash, I strongly urge you to view my latest video at TheStreet.com.

I do these videos in lieu of the lengthy newsletter at least partly because it’s a lot easier to add chart content to the video. I guarantee that if you view this one, you will learn a lot about how to forecast the stock market trend. Click here to view October Crash at TheStreet.com. Do let me know what you think.

Navarro on TheStreet.com
Click here to review my videos on TheStreet.com.
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Peter Navarro is the author of the best-selling The Coming China Wars, the path-breaking The Well-Timed Strategy, and the investment classic If It's Raining In Brazil, Buy Starbucks. Peter’s latest book is Always a Winner: Managing for Competitive Advantage in an Up and Down Economy.

Peter is a regular CNBC contributor and has been featured on 60 Minutes. His internationally recognized expertise lies in his "big picture" application of a highly sophisticated but easily accessible macroeconomic analysis of the business cycle and stock market cycle for corporate executives and investors. He is a Professor at the Merage School of Business, University of California-Irvine and received his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University.

Professor Navarro’s articles have appeared in a wide range of publications, from Business Week, the Los Angeles Times, New York Times and Wall Street Journal to the Harvard Business Review, the MIT Sloan Management Review, and the Journal of Business. His free weekly newsletter is published at www.PeterNavarro.com.

© 2009 Copyright Peter Navarro - All Rights Reserved
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