Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Gold & Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase - 6th May 21
Vaccine Economic Boom and Bust - 6th May 21
USDX, Gold Miners: The Lion and the Jackals - 6th May 21
What If You Turn Off Your PC During Windows Update? Stuck on Automatic Repair Nightmare! - 6th May 21
4 Insurance Policies You Should Consider Buying - 6th May 21
Fed Taper Smoke and Mirrors - 5th May 21
Global Economic Recovery 2021 and the Dark Legacies of Smoot-Hawley - 5th May 21
Utility Stocks Continue To Rally – Sending A Warning Signal Yet? - 5th May 21
ROIMAX Trading Platform Review - 5th May 21
Gas and Electricity Price Trends so far in 2021 for the United Kingdom - 5th May 21
Crypto Bubble Mania Free Money GPU Mining With NiceHash Continues... - 4th May 21
Stock Market SPX Short-term Correction - 4th May 21
Gold & Silver Wait Their Turn to Ride the Inflationary Wave - 4th May 21
Gold Can’t Wait to Fall – Even Without USDX’s Help - 4th May 21
Stock Market Investor Psychology: Here are 2 Rare Traits Now on Display - 4th May 21
Sheffield Peoples Referendum May 6th Local Elections 2021 - Vote for Committee Decision's or Dictatorship - 4th May 21
AlphaLive Brings Out Latest Trading App for Android - 4th May 21
India Covid-19 Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan & Bangladesh, Covid in Italy August 2019! - 3rd May 21
Why Ryzen PBO Overclock is Better than ALL Core Under Volting - 5950x, 5900x, 5800x, 5600x Despite Benchmarks - 3rd May 21
MMT: Medieval Monetary Theory - 3rd May 21
Magical Flowering Budgies Bird of Paradise Indoor Grape Vine Flying Fun in VR 3D 180 UK - 3rd May 21
Last Chance to GET FREE Money Crypto Mining with Your Desktop PC - 2nd May 21
Will Powell Lull Gold Bulls to Sweet Sleep? - 2nd May 21
Stock Market Enough Consolidation Already! - 2nd May 21
Inflation or Deflation? (Not a silly question…) - 2nd May 21
What Are The Requirements For Applying For A Payday Loan Online? - 2nd May 21
How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part1 - 1st May 21
INDIA COVID APOCALYPSE - 1st May 21
Are Technicals Pointing to New Gold Price Rally? - 1st May 21
US Dollar Index: Subtle Changes, Remarkable Outcomes - 1st May 21
Stock Market Correction Time Window - 30th Apr 21
Stock Market "Fastest Jump Since 2007": How Leveraged Investors are Courting "Doom" - 30th Apr 21
Three Reasons Why Waiting for "Cheaper Silver" Doesn't Make Cents - 30th Apr 21
Want To Invest In US Real Estate Market But Don’t Have The Down Payment? - 30th Apr 21
King Zuckerberg Tech Companies to Set up their own Governments! - 29th Apr 21
Silver Price Enters Acceleration Phase - 29th Apr 21
Financial Stocks Sector Appears Ready To Run Higher - 29th Apr 21
Stock Market Leverage Reaches New All-Time Highs As The Excess Phase Rally Continues - 29th Apr 21
Get Ready for the Fourth U.S. Central Bank - 29th Apr 21
Gold Mining Stock: Were Upswings Just an Exhausting Sprint? - 29th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Lead the Bull Market Charge - 28th Apr 21
AMD Ryzen Overclocking Guide - 5900x, 5950x, 5600x PPT, TDC, EDC, How to Best Settings Beyond PBO - 28th Apr 21
Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator - 28th Apr 21
No Upsetting the Apple Cart in Stocks or Gold - 28th Apr 21
Is The Covaids Insanity Actually Getting Worse? - 28th Apr 21
Dogecoin to the Moon! The Signs are Everywhere, but few will Heed them - 28th Apr 21
SPX Indicators Flashing Stock Market Caution - 28th Apr 21
Gold Prices – Don’t Get Too Excited - 28th Apr 21
6 Challenges Contract Managers Face When Handling Contractual Agreements - 28th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

The Summer Pause That Refreshes the Stock Market

Stock-Markets / Technical Analysis Jul 09, 2007 - 05:33 PM GMT

By: Hans_Wagner

Stock-Markets There is a Wall Street phrase that “Sell in May and go Away” that means that most of the money tends to be made between November and May. There are actual studies that have shown if one were fully invested in the market from November to May and then moved their money into safe interest bearing instruments like CDs, they make more money than staying invested in the market throughout the year. Now that we are entering the heart of summer, we need to consider if 2007 will follow a similar pattern.


The chart below from Chart of the Day , illustrates the average monthly gain of the S&P 500 (the largest companies) and the Russell 2000 (the smaller companies). As shown all stocks tend to under perform during the summer. If we are following this pattern, then the market is entering the weakest months of July and August.

The chart below shows the S&P 500 (dotted line) and the Russell 2000 (solid line). What is interesting about these two charts is in May of 2005, it was a time to buy, not sell. However, in May of 2006 the rule was correct with July being the bottom. So far in 2007 we have experienced a flat summer market that began in May. In addition both indexes are performing almost the same during May and June 2007.

So the first question is will history repeat itself or will the market surprise us again? The major influences in the summer are corporate earnings that begin in July and last until the middle of August, weather and global events. For the S&P 500 analysts are expecting earnings to be in the 5.0 to 5.3% area for this quarter.

Remember that last quarter companies surprised dramatically to the upside as executives learned to under promise and over deliver. I doubt we will see as big a difference as last quarter, but I believe actual earnings will be above current expectations. Earnings growth of 6% will not be enough to cause the market to overcome the summer blahs. It will take more like 8 to 10%, I believe, which is not likely. So I do not expect earnings to cause the market to change its normal summer pull back. 

What about the weather, actually hurricanes. Well, the forecast is for several severe hurricanes this summer, but they said that last year. In any case it is definitely a possibility and something to be monitored.

Then there are any serious global events that would impact the current situation. Again, these are hard to predict. The best strategy is to be ready when they happen to take action. However, the markets tend to be quite resilient in these cases, so investors should not be too concerned. After all, the markets barely blinked with the most recent car bomb threats in London and Glasgow.

So what should investors do now? The most likely case is we will see a slight pull back (probably in the 5% area) during July and into August. Actually this would be good for investors, especially those with cash on hand to invest once prices pull back further to new support levels. Use the time wisely to find quality companies with good earnings growth and are at strong support levels.

By Hans Wagner
tradingonlinemarkets.com

My Name is Hans Wagner and as a long time investor, I was fortunate to retire at 55. I believe you can employ simple investment principles to find and evaluate companies before committing one's hard earned money. Recently, after my children and their friends graduated from college, I found my self helping them to learn about the stock market and investing in stocks. As a result I created a website that provides a growing set of information on many investing topics along with sample portfolios that consistently beat the market at http://www.tradingonlinemarkets.com/

Hans Wagner Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in