Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
JOHNSON & JOHNSON (JNJ) Big Pharama AI Mega-trend Investing 2020 - 25th Jan 20
Experts See Opportunity in Ratios of Gold to Silver and Platinum - 25th Jan 20
Gold/Silver Ratio, SPX, Yield Curve and a Story to Tell - 25th Jan 20
Germany Starts War on Gold  - 25th Jan 20
Gold Mining Stocks Valuations - 25th Jan 20
Three Upside and One Downside Risk for Gold - 25th Jan 20
A Lesson About Gold – How Bullish Can It Be? - 24th Jan 20
Stock Market January 2018 Repeats in 2020 – Yikes! - 24th Jan 20
Gold Report from the Two Besieged Cities - 24th Jan 20
Stock Market Elliott Waves Trend Forecast 2020 - Video - 24th Jan 20
AMD Multi-cores vs INTEL Turbo Cores - Best Gaming CPUs 2020 - 3900x, 3950x, 9900K, or 9900KS - 24th Jan 20
Choosing the Best Garage Floor Containment Mats - 23rd Jan 20
Understanding the Benefits of Cannabis Tea - 23rd Jan 20
The Next Catalyst for Gold - 23rd Jan 20
5 Cyber-security considerations for 2020 - 23rd Jan 20
Car insurance: what the latest modifications could mean for your premiums - 23rd Jan 20
Junior Gold Mining Stocks Setting Up For Another Rally - 22nd Jan 20
Debt the Only 'Bubble' That Counts, Buy Gold and Silver! - 22nd Jan 20
AMAZON (AMZN) - Primary AI Tech Stock Investing 2020 and Beyond - Video - 21st Jan 20
What Do Fresh U.S. Economic Reports Imply for Gold? - 21st Jan 20
Corporate Earnings Setup Rally To Stock Market Peak - 21st Jan 20
Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 - Part1 - 21st Jan 20
How to Write a Good Finance College Essay  - 21st Jan 20
Risks to Global Economy is Balanced: Stock Market upside limited short term - 20th Jan 20
How Digital Technology is Changing the Sports Betting Industry - 20th Jan 20
Is CEOs Reputation Management Essential? All You Must Know - 20th Jan 20
APPLE (AAPL) AI Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 20th Jan 20
FOMO or FOPA or Au? - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review - 20th Jan 20
Why Intel i7-4790k Devils Canyon CPU is STILL GOOD in 2020! - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust Review - 19th Jan 20
Gold Trade Usage & Price Effect - 19th Jan 20
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2020 - Trend Analysis - Video - 19th Jan 20
Stock Trade-of-the-Week: Dorchester Minerals (DMLP) - 19th Jan 20
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 18th Jan 20
Gold Stocks Wavering - 18th Jan 20
Best Amazon iPhone Case Fits 6s, 7, 8 by Toovren Review - 18th Jan 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Now The Stock Market Bulls Fail..For Now...

Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Dec 01, 2009 - 08:50 PM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


Yes, that's the way it has been for nearly three months now. Each side taking turns missing out on their opportunities once it's right there for the taking. There are enough bulls and enough bears at critical junctures to be sure that no one takes the other side to their demise. Oh so close the other day as the Nasdaq challenged its 50-day exponential moving average. The bulls came in and blasted things right back up.

Today we saw the S&P 500 and all of the major index charts get right to the top of their wedges only to see the bears step in and say, no way boys and girls. The market has flashed so many head fakes to both sides you really can't keep track any longer. For now, we only know that the up trend is in place, but we also know that neither side has total control and only when the bulls blow through 1113 on the S&P 500 can they say all is clear. For now it remains a desire but not a reality.

The market was flashing some good futures this morning all based on news overnight that Japan would grow faster and stronger than expected. Add in a call from Morgan Stanley (MS) that Japan's stock market would rise 29% next year and you had a double dose of froth that sent their futures flying higher. The froth virus spread to Europe which then was sent skyward to our futures. Up we went out of the gates.

It was a strong move that ran up as they went along. A Poor ISM Manufacturing Report 30-minutes in, meaning still showing expansion but lower than expected, sent the market well off the highs only to see the market come soaring back up as the morning went on. A solid showing throughout the day, especially when you consider that the financials really didn't participate. It's more bullish when a market can run higher without an important leading sector not participating. Shows good strength elsewhere, which is always necessary while a market consolidates a previous move higher. We ended up closing decently off the highs but still a positive day nonetheless. Solid action albeit shy of the necessary breakout the bulls had hoped for as the day wore on.

I am still hearing a lot of dooms day forecasts out there. I am not saying those reports can't be right. Some coming from some very popular analysts that folks pay a fortune for. They've lost a fortune paying that fortune listening to them over the past few months. They have been saying this market has to get annihilated simply because it does. The too far too fast stuff. The economic stuff. On and on. You should NEVER call for market death until you see some real evidence pointing to it as fact. Clearly, you know the rules there. Loss of 50-day exponential moving averages on all the right internals, etc. So many out there are playing with their hearts. It's understandable as the real world isn't necessarily correlating to the stock market. Can't play that way, though. So many are buried since July or thereabouts as they've been so bearish. I have said it enough times to make me cry “I'm so sick of hearing it!” in my own head. You can't short an up trend until that trend is proven to be broken. It is not broken folks. Simple as that. Please continue your trading under that assumption.

Red flags do abound as I have spoken about yesterday. It's easy to look at those and just give up the game here. I get that. The worst of which is the behavior in those financials. It really isn't very good and I am the first to recognize that. It's not great to see stocks like Apple Inc. (AAPL) struggling with bad divergences under major resistance. It's failing to keep up lately and that's not normal, but it also could simply mean it's resting after a long run. Much like the market, just consolidating. It hasn't lost major support and until it does you have to give it the benefit of the doubt. Other areas where we are losing the 50's, we are doing so at a time when those stocks or sectors are getting very oversold on their daily charts and that often leads to a capture back of those lost numbers in due time. That has been the problem for the bears. When they do get something to break down they can't hold on as oversold is not staying that way very long. So yes, red flags do exist, but this market is holding up well.

S&P 500 critical supports remains at 1072. For the Nasdaq it's 2121 and for the Dow it's 10,001. Gap support for the Nasdaq is now at 2162. Lots of good support abounds. We watch these levels day by day and we watch that 1113 S&P 500 resistance area and wonder when will something break! Who knows. Just play the game appropriately. Weakness is here, is strength there. Financials weak but semis strong today.

Market is holding just fine folks.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 30-Day Trial to!

© 2009

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules