The Market Oracle Newsletter Issue #13 Vol. 1

Dear Registered Member,

Welcome to the current issue of the Market Oracle Financial Markets Forecasting and Analysis Newsletter featuring a selection of the Editor's choice of the best of recent articles.

1. Gold and Silver Marketwatch- This Time It's For Real...
2. The State of the Credit Markets
3. Energy Stocks Due for a Correction, Which Would Present a Buying Opportunity
4. Who Do We Owe and How Much?
5. The Financial Markets Big Picture - The Crack-up Boom Series Part VI
6. How High Can Crude Oil Fly?
7. US Bond Market and Interest Rates Quarterly Review and Outlook - Second Quarter 2007
8. Cyclical Stock Market Highs – Secular Trends – And The Sinking Of The USS Titanic
9. US Dollar Expected to Grinds Its Way Towards a Bottom
10. What's New
    

By: Clive_Maund

The powerful rally by large Precious Metals (PM) stocks over the past couple of weeks is believed to be the start of a "breakout drive" that will vault the sector indices out of the large holding patterns that they have been stuck in for past 18 months, for these patterns date back further than the actual highs to the start of last year, ushering in a period of rapid and substantial advance.

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By: John_Mauldin

In this issue:
Hot Fun In The Summertime
Collateralized Loan Obligations
The Economic Outlook for Leveraged Credits
The New Mickey Mouse Club
Planes, Trains and Automobiles

This week I am already in Maine and getting ready for a weekend of fishing with my son Trey, so I am going to take off a week from writing the letter. I spoke this morning to the Maine chapter of the Chartered Financial Analysts in Portland. The question of the day was about the subprime markets, private equity and the debt markets in general. And these are the right questions, as this is the part of our economic world with the most risk.

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By: Zeal_LLC

In a rapidly developing world starved for energy, the powerful surge in energy stocks in recent months certainly has a strong fundamental foundation. With decades left to go in the massive industrialization of Asia , global energy demand is going to continue relentlessly growing for many years to come.

And as long as worldwide demand growth exceeds supply growth, energy prices have no economic choice but to continue to rise on balance. This is why energy stocks are probably the best long-term investment in the world today. I started speculating in them in 2001 and have laid up big investments in elite energy producers in the years since. In the specific case of oil stocks, their valuations remain so low that they are also true value plays in addition to being highly leveraged to the structural energy deficits.

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By: Mike_Hewitt

This essay takes an in-depth look at the magnitude and consequences of the large debt levels within the United States. Topics discussed include: composition of foreign and domestic holders of U.S. debt, consequences of the government borrowing from the Federal Reserve, and a look at the current U.S. housing market.

The National Debt

The national debt (also known as public debt) is money owed by the federal government. As the government represents the people, government debt can be seen as an indirect debt of the taxpayers. The U.S. government incurs debt by issuing treasuries (bills, notes and bonds).

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By: Ty_Andros

In This Issue
1. The Crack-up Boom Series Part VI Introduction
2. Smoke Signals, aka The “BIG” Picture
3. Years Ending in 7 and What Comes After! Nice, Very Nice .

1. The Crack Up Boom series is exploring the unfolding “Indirect Exchange” (as detailed by Ludvig Von Mises), that dollar holders will be using to exit their holdings now and eventually is will be followed by all holders of fiat currency holdings no matter which country is perpetrating the “fraud” of confiscation of wealth through the printing and credit creation process that all such monetary schemes evolve into. The “Crack Up Boom” will drive an inflationary global expansion to inconceivable heights over the coming years. Asset prices will skyrocket as people do what they always do when threatened they will modify their behavior and do the things necessary for “SELF PRESERVATION” of their families, countries, economies and their wealth. Let's take a look at Von Mises description of the CRACK UP BOOM once again:

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By: Gary_Dorsch

In London, the price of North Sea Brent, the benchmark for two-thirds of the world's oil, touched an all-time high of $78.40 per barrel this week, with no sense of alarm at the world's top central banks. Regarded as a key indicator of global inflation, central bankers are sitting in stone faced silence about the surge in crude oil, and that's been good news for bullish speculators in gold and energy shares.

After all, higher interest rates won't produce one extra barrel of oil. When asked about the high price of crude oil on July 10th, Federal Reserve chief Ben “helicopter” Bernanke replied, “Inflation is less responsive than it used to be to changes in oil prices and other supply shocks. If inflation expectations are well anchored, changes in energy and food prices should have relatively little influence on “core” inflation.”

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By: John_Mauldin

This week in Outside the Box, we take a closer look at the bond market and its underlying drivers. HMIC's Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt anticipate lower inflationary pressures on account of faltering consumer spending and further deterioration in the housing market.

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By: Captain_Hook

A great deal has already been written on this subject as it pertains to both stocks and commodities, with Michael Alexander's work a shining example in this regard. Of course if you were to compare how the markets are behaving in relation to how conventional analysis along these lines was foretelling what we should expect back at millennium's turn, one might be quite surprised today.
 

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By: David_Petch

Hope everyone is having a better day than the US dollar is having. I expected the USD to remain within a wedge structure, but that pattern was invalidated as will be shown in the charts below. The USD is still developing a terminal impulse, but it is going to take on the appearance of a channel or an expanding wedge (if the USD goes below 79.5).

There is too much to lose if the USD is let to decline below 80.0 for an extended period of time, but I do expect 79.5, maybe even 79.0 to be briefly tested before starting the next move up in wave [C].x of the non-limiting triangle.

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