There was an interesting article online of Forbes discussing Billionaire predictions that I glanced through this morning. My immediate thought was..Do these Billionaires know something that we don’t? They know better than us? What I expected was they had a variance of opinions as we all do…as well as they are optimistic.. Really they are no different than us mortals…Maybe they were at the right time at the right place… worked extremely hard to earn their status as a billionaire… but they are no soothsayer…

As a commodity trading advisor… I know that No one knows the future.Articles like this make great public interest articles.. but to invest on this type of knowledge is dangerous to ones net worth. With Trend following we do not need to predict what will happen because it is impossible. What trend followers do is put themselves in a position to benefit if there will be a trend.

I laugh with clients..I tell them that trend followers are like fishermen..If the fish are out …we will catch some fish…and sometimes ( many times) as any good fisherman knows…the fish just aren’t out..

I know it is very tempting to read about John Paulson and David Einhorn who made fortunes shorting the subprime…and now are huge believers in gold. John Paulson put 40% of his fund in Gold. They are making huge bets…or predictions.. Maybe they will be right.. But what I am sure of…is every trend following commodity trading advisor will also be long gold if gold moves up. Just look at how many commodity traders are long sugar ( we are)..

With my years of experience… I truly believe it is much more prudent to let the markets tell us where they want to go…rather listen to a billionaire…I know I do not know the future…and I am humble…

Andrew Abraham
www.myinvestorsplace.com

Andrew Abraham has been in the financial arena since 1990. He is a commodity trading advisor and co manager of a Commodity Pool. Since 1993 Andrew has been a proponent of quantitative mechanical trading programs. Andrew's major concern is not only total return on investment but rather the amount of risk that one would have to tolerate in order to achieve returns He focuses on developing quant models that encompass strict risk adherence and correlation. He has been a speaker at conferences as well as an author of numerous articles. Andrew has spent years researching ideas that have the potential to outperform indices as well as maintain fewer draw downs.

Visit Angus Jackson Partners (http://www.angusjacksonpartners.com) Contact: A.Abraham@AngusJackson.com (mailto:A.Abraham@AngusJackson.com)

© 2009 Copyright Andrew Abraham - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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