In the final week of the year we saw the market continue to break to new (recent) highs above the former range highs, but volume was very light. Thursday, the final trading day of 2009 for stocks, saw aggressive selling into the close with the S&P falling 7 points in the final 25 minutes of trading after another very sedate afternoon. The S&P closed back within the old range.

On the hourly charts we see something interesting. Despite finishing within the old range which has been with us since mid November, we do see a possible uptrend emerging; we failed to reach the range lows but made higher highs. Short-term trend line support comes in at 1104. Respect, and a bounce off that level and a move back towards the recent highs indicates this market is likely to experience a legitimate upside breakout and the reemergence of a bull rally in early 2010.

On the other hand, a move below 1104 and then 1094 indicates a retest of the range lows between 1086-1084. Penetration of that level indicates the breakout higher was false and that this market is highly likely to head lower in early 2010.

Starting in 2010 I expect volume to increase. If this market is to move into a renewed bull rally, volume will need to increase. If volume stays light or even decreases (!?) this market will stay range bound and decreasing volume is likely to sink it towards the range lows mentioned above.

Written by Cory Mitchell, CMT for www.cfdspros.com

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