Who do you believe?… Jim Rogers came out today and predicts food shortages. Jim Rogers thinks there will be food shortages because of the financial crisis. He believes the agricultural sector is low on funds and inventories are at the lowest levels in decades. An example is a recent trade that most trend followers are in is Sugar. Sugar is still 70% below it’s highs. Can you imagine the potential profits only if sugar rebounds 50%? The same can be said about gold or even coffee.

The back drop is that last year many abandoned managed futures and trend following because of lack luster returns. Actually Business week wrote an article discussing the dismal returns of the many of the leading trend following commodity traders.

So the question arises.. How does one make investments on conflicting stories? Who says it has to be simple. That answer is, it is useless to predict…rather it is most prudent to trend follow. When trend following you open yourself up to any potential outcome regardless of direction. Trend Followers stand to make money in any situation. Granted in an inflationary context, trend following commodity trading advisors stand the chance to make a fortune if there are trends.

I am convinced no one knows the future and the most prudent measure is to let the markets let you know what to do.

Andrew Abraham
www.myinvestorsplace.com

Andrew Abraham has been in the financial arena since 1990. He is a commodity trading advisor and co manager of a Commodity Pool. Since 1993 Andrew has been a proponent of quantitative mechanical trading programs. Andrew's major concern is not only total return on investment but rather the amount of risk that one would have to tolerate in order to achieve returns He focuses on developing quant models that encompass strict risk adherence and correlation. He has been a speaker at conferences as well as an author of numerous articles. Andrew has spent years researching ideas that have the potential to outperform indices as well as maintain fewer draw downs.

Visit Angus Jackson Partners (http://www.angusjacksonpartners.com) Contact: A.Abraham@AngusJackson.com (mailto:A.Abraham@AngusJackson.com)

© 2010 Copyright Andrew Abraham - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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