Best Financial Markets Analysis Article After deep losses in the CRB Index in 2008, 2009 was marked by a recovery attempt – and to date it has fallen short of the 38.2% retracement. This has been accompanied by certain bear signs that herald a medium term pullback phase now.

The Commodity Specialist view

MONTHLY CHART:

Following a brief push through the 284.61 Jan-07 low the market has struggled.

In fact the sell-off in Jan produced a negative Key Reversal Month, its impact perhaps aided by the fact that the trading month was made up of four complete weeks.

WEEKLY CHART:

On the Weekly chart note how the recovery from 2009 low failed ahead of the 38.2% retracement level.

There was a well-defined uptrend line which has been clearly broken, implying a deeper pullback phase has got underway.

DAILY CHART – MAR-10:

After the earlier drop below the 280.00 area the bear argument strengthened following the break of the s/term bull channel base projection, and then 271.66 23.6% pullback (of whole 2009 recovery).

This was our cue to adopt a bear stance in the Commodity Specialist Guide, supported by that key reversal month, above.

Any bounce should prove short-lived, ahead of a further downleg, possible resistance around 280.00.

Look out for s/term support centring on 260 (larger channel base projection just above, 38.2% just below). But the Index should push lower in due course.

Mark Sturdy
John Lewis

Seven Days Ahead
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Mark Sturdy, John Lewis & Philip Allwright, write exclusively for Seven Days Ahead a regulated financial advisor selling professional-level technical and macro analysis and high-performing trade recommendations with detailed risk control for banks, hedge funds, and expert private investors around the world. Check out our subscriptions.

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