Investor Profit and Protection From Chaos and Cartel Interventions, Forecasts 2010
Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 May 27, 2010 - 07:57 AM GMTBy: DeepCaster_LLC
“The pace and severity of financial crises has taken an ominous turn for the worse. Over the past 30 years, a crisis has occurred, on average, every three years. Yet, now, only 18 months after the meltdown of late 2008, Europe’s sovereign debt crisis has hit with full force. With one crisis seemingly begetting another, and the fuse between crises now getting shorter and shorter, the world economy is on a very treacherous course.”
Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley, May 2010
“The market game is to either get the front month price below the key strike prices before the expiry to make the options worthless, or to take the price down below the strikes the day after to run the stops of the contract holders. The market makers can see the relative levels of holdings in market in near real time, privileged information not permitted to the average investor.
Three or four banks are short more silver on the COMEX than can easily be attributed to legitimate forward sales or hedging for all the miners in the entire world, for years of production…
Goldman Sachs was able to obtain the exemptions of a hedger in the markets through contrivance, for the purpose of their proprietary speculation. But if Goldman is the vampire squid, then J. P. Morgan is the kraken of the derivatives markets, having less leverage than the squid as a percentage of assets, but significantly more reach and nominal size, positions which seem almost impossible to manage competently against value at risk in the event of a very modest market dislocation. And of course the risk which a miscalculation presents could shake a continent of counterparties. These oversized positions appear to be integral to the misprision of legitimate price discovery that is at the heart of derivatives frauds in other markets.
…J.P. Morgan alone has a total derivatives exposure that is larger than world GDP…
Here is a description of the derivatives market by (Senator) Carl Levin…
“But a synthetic instrument has no real assets. It is simply a bet on the performance of the assets it references. That means the number of synthetic instruments is limitless, and so is the risk they present to the economy...
Increasingly, synthetics became bets made by people who had no interest in the referenced assets…
These bets can be used to overwhelm the clearing price of physical bullion. Further, these bets distort markets, and those markets have an impact on the real commodity supplies and the economy, in the form of artificial oil and energy shortages for example as in the case of Enron. And given enough time these distortions can, through misallocation of resources, capital and labor, create real systemic shortages in key commodities that can take years to remedy, in addition to the short term damage and pain they inflict on countries whose economies rely on commodity exports.” (end Levin quote – ed.)
…it is natural to grow tired of it, to wish it would just go away. I know that I do.
But these things have happened, and continue to happen, and if you do not understand even now how the government and the banks are acting together in the shadows for the benefit of the monied interests, you have not been following the news. Or perhaps you have, since the mainstream media largely ignores it, and investigates little or nothing, preferring the less expensive route of chairing phony debates between vested insiders…”
“Release the Kraken: Silver Market Price Rebounds After Sharp Price Drop for Options Expiration”
Café Américain, 4/29/10
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/04/silver-market-price-rebounds-above-key.html
Reader comments on the Jesse Crossroads Café Blogspot above:
“"The Primary Dealers (largest commercial and investment banks) get free lunches from US debt (money) issuance, plus they are doing this manipulation (among many)...They are not speculators (like individual market participants); they are nearly risk free 'game fixers' who get the laws/regs written to maximize their power."
The financial regulations Bill going soon to the House-Senate Joint reconciliation committee is an example of laws written to maximize the market fixers' interests. Retiring Senator Chris Dodd [D-CT] is the bankers' boy in Congress. He will surely find a golden couch awaiting him on retirement.
The Senate version of the Bill includes laughably weak provisions to Audit the Fed. The House provisions incorporate Congressman Ron Paul's original Bill to Audit the Fed. Which version will survive the Joint Committee?
A common definition of FASCISM is that the State protects and advances the interests of particular private interests. Special privilege awarded to the private-for-profit Federal Reserve cartel and many other international banks is an example of FASCISM.”
Profiting and Protecting from Chaos and Cartel Intervention requires, first, understanding certain Essential Realities.
Essential Realities for the 2nd Half 2010 and Beyond
First Essential Reality: The Challenges faced by the Economy and Markets are Systemic and are not merely a function of any particular problem (e.g. Greece, PIIGS, China Bubble, U.S. Debt) however daunting each of these may be. It is the combination of these interrelated problems that creates The Systemic Risk Problem.
Since the Systemic Problems are generally not being adequately addressed (e.g. the Bailouts have helped the Mega-Banks, but not Main Street or the Middle Class, the financial health of both of which is essential to any durable Economic Recovery), there is more trouble ahead for the economy and Markets. But Crises also provide Opportunities, as we indicate below.
We wrote the following in early January, 2010. Indeed, subsequent events are validating the following Forecasts.
“As to the premise: “the Equities Markets will likely fall 2010…” we wholeheartedly agree (see below).
But as to another writer’s conclusion “…thus we must look elsewhere for profits…” we (still) emphatically disagree.
Yes, profits will be found “elsewhere” in select Sectors other than the Equities Markets.
But it will be most important to generate Profits on the “short side”. Indeed, failure to “find Profits” on the “short side” in the Equities Markets and other Sectors will result in a considerable limiting of Profit Opportunities. That is because (we forecast) many Profit Opportunities in many Sectors other than Equities will be on the “short side” as well.
Indeed, those who cling to a ‘Buy and Hold’ investment philosophy in 2010 are likely to find it extremely damaging to their portfolios.
That ‘Buy and Hold’ philosophy has not worked for the last decade. The Dow is about where it was ten years ago, and, adjusted for Official Inflation, that means that the typical “Buy and Hold” portfolio has suffered over a 30% loss in the past Decade (and even more if one uses Real rather than Official Inflation numbers – see below).”
Another Essential Reality: The challenges we face will only intensify because the Structural Problems we face are not being resolved. Case in Point: The single largest Toxic Asset Threats to the U.S., Fannie and Freddie, are not being addressed in the pending U.S. Financial “Reform” legislation.
Indeed, the legislation further Empowers the private for-profit Fed, the Main Cause of the U.S.A.’s Economic and Financial Woes (see “Surmounting The Armageddon Scenario & Cartel ‘End Game’” 2/26/10 in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ Cache, and the quotations above).
And in the Eurozone, about $635 billion of the One Trillion Dollar Euro-TARP Bailout was used to bail out French and German Banks who lent to the PIIGS and $67 billion of that Trillion Dollars came from U.S. Taxpayers via the U.S. Constitution to the IMF. We wonder which of those Mega-banks own shares in the private for-profit U.S. Fed. Meanwhile smaller Regional and State banks continue to fail – 70 in the U.S. this year already – and their performing assets are typically scarfed up by the Mega-Banks.
And these observations lead to another Essential Reality – a basic Problem worldwide is not primarily “Not Enough Liquidity” (though Small Business has largely been cut off from credit), but rather, too Much Debt, owed largely to the Mega-Bankers, whether Sovereign Debt or otherwise.
Looking forward, The Fed-led Cartel’s* years-long Policy of Monetary and Credit Inflation and increasing Sovereign Debt and Deficit bubbles around the world has and will continue not only to damage investors and economies around the world, but will also result in a flight to Quality in the Traditional Safe Havens of Gold and Silver.
But that also means Cartel* attacks on Gold, Silver and Crude Oil (and other Strategic Commodities) prices (for reasons described in last week’s Deepcaster Alert) will be somewhat less effective, but nonetheless will likely intensify in the second half of 2010.
*We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2009 Letter entitled "A Strategy For Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions & Evolving Techniques - II" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.
BUT none of these attacks will proceed linearly, not merely because Markets do not move in Straight lines, but more importantly because it is in The Cartel’s interest that they not move linearly.
For example, The Cartel typically acts to attempt to inflict maximum damage on Precious Metals Bulls. Indeed in the past few months increased Buying Pressure has impelled The Cartel to allow Gold to move up three fourths of the way, i.e. to $1,237/oz from $1000/oz base toward the next technical plateau between $1300/oz and 1350/oz.
But when Gold hit $1,237/oz, and when all the key Fundamentals and Technicals signaled that Gold would likely surmount $1300/oz before pausing, Gold was viciously taken down $60/oz. The foregoing Scenario is Typical of The Cartel’s Modus Operandi. Conclusion: though weakened, The Cartel is still a potent force in The Gold (and Silver) Market.
- Opportunity: One very Gold and Silver Price Positive Development is the past 6 Months is that the Cartel’s Capacity to intervene in the Precious Metals markets has been considerably weaked for reasons we explain in last week’s Article. Among these reasons are the revelations that a number of the Major Gold (and Silver) repositories around the World likely do not have the actual Physical Gold and Silver they say they do. This is resulting in an increasing demand for and possession of physical. This will likely provide a higher “floor” for prices AFTER a Takedown, and thus a Buying Opportunity. For likely timing, see our Latest Letter and Alerts at www.deepcaster.com.
- Observation: “Paper Gold” (e.g. Miners Shares, Gold “Certificates” etc.) will remain more vulnerable to Price Takedowns than Physical Gold kept in ones’ personal possession. That is because the prices of this “paper” are more easily manipulable by The Cartel than prices for “physical”. On the Other Hand, purchasing such Shares near the bottoms of Cartel Takedown can be quite lucrative.
Another Reality is the Dismal Long-Term Prospects for the U.S. Dollar. Still-increasing U.S. National Debt (now approaching $13 Trillion) plus downstream unfunded liabilities ($60 to $70 Trillion and rising depending on whose figures ultimately prove to be most accurate) will eventually be the primary cause likely resulting in the U.S. Dollar’s demise as the World’s Reserve Currency. It will result in that demise, unless the U.S. Dollar is linked to Gold and Silver. In that event the U.S. Dollar’s demise could be avoided, although at such time its value would likely be even more debased (than now) in Purchasing Power terms.
But while the Fate of the U.S. Dollar will likely be determined over the next very few years, our focus here is, primarily, the Fate of the U.S. Dollar over the next 6 months. That is a different story.
As we also earlier Forecast, the U.S. Dollar has continued its Bounce which has taken it to the 85 to 87 range over the past few weeks.
And that strength will likely continue for so long as the congeries of problems referenced above result in a weak Euro and Tight Credit Markets.
For many of the same reasons, and as we earlier forecast, long-dated U.S. Treasuries have strengthened over the past few weeks, and their strength should continue to track U.S. Dollar strength.
As well, the Crude Oil Price Takedown which we earlier Forecast has begun. BUT that, like U.S. Dollar and U.S. Treasury strength cannot last much longer. To see our latest Forecasts for the U.S. Dollar, Crude Oil, and U.S. T-Notes and T-Bonds, read our June, 2010 Letter at www.deepcaster.com.
We do not rejoice in reporting other Essential Realities
- U.S. Foreclosures are at a Record high and Housing loan demand is at a 13 year low
- 775 U.S. Regional and State banks are on the FDIC’s problem list, but Mega-bank profits continue to be high
Indeed another Essential Reality which must be taken account of, is the Bogus Official Statistics. Consider the Real Numbers as provided by Shadowstats.com. Shadowstats.com calculates the Real Numbers for the U.S. the way they were calculated in the 1980’s and 1990’s before Interventions began in earnest. See chart below.
Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)
Annual Consumer Price Inflation reported May 19, 2010
2.24% 9.46% (annualized May 2010 Rate)
U.S. Unemployment reported May 7, 2010
9.9% 22.0%
U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported April 30, 2010
2.55% -1.48%
Given all the foregoing, over the Next six Months, U.S. Equities and Major Nations’ Equities Markets will encounter progressively heavier Headwinds. For specific Major Nations’ forecasts see Deepcaster’s June, 2010 Letter posted in the ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com.
So to cope with the foregoing requires a Strategy.
The Strategy – Guidelines for Identifying Opportunities for Profit and Protection
Indeed with Economic Hyperinflation and Equities Markets Deflation in our Future, most Equities Market Opportunities will be on the short side through the rest of 2010 and into 2011, as we earlier forecasted.
But the Equities Markets Take-downs should provide Magnificent Buying Opportunities in Key Sectors.
As well, superb Opportunities will continue to exist in Gold and Silver and we urge Gold and Silver and Mining Shares Purchases. However, unfortunately, Protection and Profit in the Precious Metals does not reliably lie in Straight-out Precious Metals Purchases or Mining Shares Purchases (i.e. without regard to Timing or Asset Form). Indeed maximizing Profit and Protection via Precious Metals purchases, or indeed in the general Equities Markets, requires a Strategy.
- Invest in Gold and Silver (and key Strategic Commodities), BUT, according to a Strategy designed to minimize the Effects of periodic Cartel Price Suppressions of Gold and Silver (and key Equities Sectors and Commodities), and, indeed, to Profit. Deepcaster has designed such a Strategy described in the following articles: “Defeating the Cartel... With Profit, Part 2” (6/19/2009) and “Defeating the Cartel... With Profit, Part 1” (3/28/2008) in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ cache at www.deepcaster.com. And Deepcaster recently recommended two Precious Metals investments, both of which are resistant to Cartel Price Takedowns.
- Take Account of overt and covert Cartel* Interventions; that is take account of The Interventionals as well as the Fundamentals and Technicals. See Deepcaster's articles: “Profit & Protection from Cartel Intervention” (12/25/2009) and “Gain from the Cartel Game Plan” (9/04/2009) in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ cache at www.deepcaster.com. IMPORTANT NOTE: As indicated in the referenced Articles, much of the post-March 9, 2009 Equities Rally has been Cartel-generated.
- Make decisions based on Real Data, such as that provided by shadowstats.com (see above), gata.org and deepcaster.com, not on bogus Official Statistics. See Deepcaster's articles: "Opportunities to Profitably Escape Paper "Wealth" in 2010" (3/12/10) and “Surmounting Deception, Distortion & Intervention” (7/17/2009) in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ cache at www.deepcaster.com.
- Implement an Investment and Personal Protection Strategy designed to cope with, surmount, and profit from The Cartel’s ‘End Game’. See Deepcaster's articles: “Surmounting The Armageddon Scenario & Cartel ‘End Game’” (2/26/2010), “Crunch Time for the Cartel“ (11/25/2009), “Surmounting the Cartels' 'End Game' Juggernaut“ (9/25/2009), and “Coping with Power Moves in the Cartel's 'End Game'” (4/24/2009) in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ cache at www.deepcaster.com.
- Implement a Strategy Designed to Profitably Escape Paper ‘Wealth’. Deepcaster’s Strategy is described in “Opportunities to Profitably Escape Paper "Wealth" in 2010” (3/12/2010) in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ cache at www.deepcaster.com.
- Become involved in Political action designed to blunt the Cartel’s Superpower-Threat and derail the Cartel’s ‘End Game’. See Deepcaster's articles: “Surmounting Cartel Advantages” (5/08/2009) and “Coping with the Superpower-Cartel Threat!” (1/30/2009) in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ cache at www.deepcaster.com. Work to defeat The Cartel ‘End Game.’ Deepcaster has laid out the evidence regarding the Ominous Cartel “End Game” in “Coping with Power Moves in the Cartel's 'End Game'” (04/24/2009) in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ cache at www.deepcaster.com. Clearly (and the recent U.S. Dollar bounce) The Cartel is sacrificing the U.S. Dollar over the long-term to prop up Favored International Financial Institutions and to maintain its power. But this sacrifice cannot continue forever. See Deepcaster’s July 2008 Letter in the ‘Latest Letter’ Archives at www.deepcaster.com.
- Become involved in Political Action to Audit the Fed (see below) and stop the Amnesty of 25 to 30 million Aliens now illegally in the U.S. A. When this Amnesty was proposed in 2007, Robert Rector of the Heritage Foundation calculated it would cost $100 billion annually (net of Taxes paid by the Illegals) for Health Care, Education, Infrastructure, and Support Services. The cost now would be higher due to increased Alien population growth and entitlements in the new Health Care Bill. Carrying Capacity Network (www.carryingcapacity.org) is a nonprofit organization which actively supports Auditing the Fed and opposes the Illegal Alien Amnesty. With 125,000 work visas being issued to Legal Immigrants each month American Taxpayers should not have to suffer the additional burden of supporting Illegals. Hard Assets Partisans have the opportunity to become involved in Political Action to diminish the power of The Fed-Cartel. It is truly outrageous that the average unsuspecting citizen, and prospective retiree, can and does put his hard won assets in Tangible Assets and/or Retirement Accounts only to have those assets effectively de-valued by Cartel Takedowns, U.S. Dollar Devaluation and other Cartel actions. This is extremely injurious to many average citizens in many countries who are saving for the rainy day or retirement and have their retirement and/or reserves effectively taken from them. In order to help prevent this and similar outrages, we recommend taking two steps:
- Become involved in the movement to Audit and then abolish the private-for-profit U.S. Federal Reserve as Deepcaster, former Presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul, and legendary investor Jim Rogers, all have advocated. The ‘Audit The Fed’ Bill is H.R. 1207 (and has over 280 co-sponsors) and S604 in the Senate; and The Abolish The Fed Bill is H.R. 2755.Unfortunately these bills have been watered down in this session of Congress. But the battle is not yet over. Insist on a stand-alone vote on these bills.
- Join the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee, which works to eliminate the manipulation of the Gold and Silver markets (www.gata.org). GATA is a nonprofit organization, which makes a great contribution by gathering evidence regarding the suppression of prices of Gold, Silver and other commodities.
- Develop an Investment and Trading Strategy designed to address all of the above. See Deepcaster's articles: “Avoiding Wealth Confiscation... With Profit!” (2/05/2010), “Profiting in "the whipsaw year" 2010” (1/08/2010), “Middle Class Outrage, Solutions, & The Markets” (12/11/2009), and “Protect and Profit Before the Coming Storm” (11/13/2009) in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ cache at www.deepcaster.com.
In sum, the Key to Profit and Protection is a Strategy: Successful Investors must become Long-Term Position Traders, with their trading choices informed by the Interventionals, as well as the Fundamentals and Technicals. Moreover, engaging in the Actions suggested above can help prevent The Cartel’s obtaining Superpower status, and aid in achieving wealth protection and profits as well.
Best Regards,
By DEEPCASTER LLC
www.deepcaster.com
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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.
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