Friday was an eventful day in the stock market: Stocks Tumble as Banks, GE Trail Revenue Estimates. Markets hate uncertainty and disappointment, and Friday the stock market took a Hay Maker to the kisser, POW.

U.S. stocks slid, wiping out a weekly advance, as revenue at Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and General Electric Co. missed analyst estimates and a gauge of consumer confidence slid to the lowest in a year.

Bank of America tumbled 9.2 percent, the most since June 2009, while Citigroup retreated 6.3 percent and GE lost 4.6 percent. Google Inc. sank 7 percent after earnings trailed the average analyst estimate following a surge in spending. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the most profitable firm in Wall Street history, rallied 0.7 percent after agreeing to pay $550 million and change its business practices to settle federal government claims it misled investors.

The S&P 500 climbed 7.2 percent from July 2 through yesterday amid optimism that corporate earnings would signal the economic recovery is sustainable. S&P 500 companies are projected to increase profits by 34 percent in 2010 and 18 percent in 2011, the fastest two-year gain since 1995, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Of the 23 companies in the S&P 500 that reported since July 12, all but three have topped forecasts for earnings-per-share, Bloomberg data show.

Revenue for the group that has reported so far has increased 2.6 percent, with 17 of 23 companies beating analyst estimates, according to the data.

I'll take the under on that bet, 34% growth in 2010 and 18% growth in 2011. I think those estimates will be revamped lower all year.

2.6% revenue growth is abysmal. Net profits are only increasing because of aggressive inventory management and layoffs. Those waiting for an inventory rebuild to support earnings growth will be sadly disappointed.

The best of 2010 might be behind us. The head winds for 2011 will begin to be discounted in the stock market in the back half of 2010. Some of the head wins for 2011 include:

1. Aging baby boomers spending demographics.
2. A spike in residential foreclosures pushing real estate lower by year end.
3. Commercial real estate continues to slide into year end.
4. Massive layoffs coming from municipalities.
5. Unemployment staying high or even increasing do to municipalities.
6. And, lets not forget the 5 Little PIIGieS and their implosion.

I had made a recommendation in January 2010 and April 2010 to take the chips off the table and use gain protection strategies when the market made tops. If the market continues lower and breaks the recent 2010 low, you should run, not walk, from the stock market. Your buy and hold investments will get hammered.

By J.D. Rosendahl

www.roseysoutlook.blogspot.com

J.D. Rosendahl was a former stock broker/investment consultant (currently not licensed) before becoming a Commercial Banker for the past 14 years. He manages his family's wealth, helping them avoid the high tech bubble and the real estate bubble melt downs and preserving wealth.

© 2010 Copyright J.D. Rosendahl - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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