Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Squid Game Stock Market 2025 - 5th Jan 25
Stock Market Bubble Drivers, Crypto Exit Strategy During Musk Presidency - 27th Dec 24
Gold Stocks’ Remain Exceptionally Weak Even as Stocks Rise - 27th Dec 24
Gold’s Remarkable Year - 27th Dec 24
Stock Market Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally! - 22nd Dec 24
STOP LOSSES - 22nd Dec 24
Fed Tests Gold Price Upleg - 22nd Dec 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Why Do We Rely On News - 22nd Dec 24
Never Buy an IPO - 22nd Dec 24
THEY DON'T RING THE BELL AT THE CRPTO MARKET TOP! - 20th Dec 24
CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER? - 18th Dec 24
Nvidia Stock 5X to 30X - 18th Dec 24
LRCX Stock Split - 18th Dec 24
Stock Market Expected Trend Forecast - 18th Dec 24
Silver’s Evolving Market: Bright Prospects and Lingering Challenges - 18th Dec 24
Extreme Levels of Work-for-Gold Ratio - 18th Dec 24
Tesla $460, Bitcoin $107k, S&P 6080 - The Pump Continues! - 16th Dec 24
Stock Market Risk to the Upside! S&P 7000 Forecast 2025 - 15th Dec 24
Stock Market 2025 Mid Decade Year - 15th Dec 24
Sheffield Christmas Market 2024 Is a Building Site - 15th Dec 24
Got Copper or Gold Miners? Watch Out - 15th Dec 24
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market - 13th Dec 24
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months - 13th Dec 24
What Does a Strong Sept Mean for the Stock Market? - 13th Dec 24
Is Trump the Most Pro-Stock Market President Ever? - 13th Dec 24
Interest Rates, Unemployment and the SPX - 13th Dec 24
Fed Balance Sheet Continues To Decline - 13th Dec 24
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Monster Upleg Lives - 8th Dec 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Positive European Bank Stress Tests Sending Markets Higher

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Jul 25, 2010 - 06:47 AM GMT

By: Gregor_Horva

Stock-Markets

Hello Traders!!

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEquity market was higher this week with S&P 500 up around 3.55%, and finished the week above resistance line connected from May 11th, 2010. At the same time the prices moved and closed above the 50 day SMA, for the first time since early May when S&P was falling from its highs. Technically the stocks market is now headed higher, towards the 1140 region, as we also pointed out in our past newsletter (U.S. Dollar And Stocks: “Market Psychology and Wave Structure").


In fact, markets now have a reason to move higher as the European Street tests results were positive, and only 7 of 91 banks failed the test, less than analysts expected. But the next question is how high can the market go and how investors see the European Stress tests results. Was the stress test too easy, and markets may react negatively?! Well, I am not fundamental analyst, so all I can say that time will tell if banks have enough of capital or not. Anyway, let’s see what the Elliott Waves are telling us.

Technical and “psychological” turning point on the stock market is still on my radar as I count five waves down from 1220 top to 1010 lows, followed by an upward bounce, which I believe it’s only a correction, black wave II in our case. Recently the sub-wave (C) of wave II got underway, which is now trading towards the 61.8% retracement level of a previous decline and also 100% projective level of wave (A), measured from wave (B) 1056 low. The upward target and also the significant resistance zone at the same time is around 1030-1040 region, around wave (4) top. If wave count is correct, then a turning point from there should send the S&P 500 back down, towards the 1010 region and even lower, while the 1220 top is in place.

S&P daily chart :


So, with S&P moving towards the 1030-1040 region, then Aud/Usd, which is one of the most correlated pairs with the U.S stocks market, should also move higher in the next week or two. Upside region that I will pay attention on is 125 pip range, 0.9050-0.9175 region, where upward price action shown from 0.8065 may find a top, since the structure looks clearly corrective, double zig-zag pattern.

Aud/Usd daily chart:


Euro is also showing a significant up-trend from 1.1875 low, and it looks that bulls are not done yet, either the upward structure is unfinished impulse wave or double zig-zag pattern. Move above the 1.3030 is expected considering to Aud/Usd and S&P wave counts, but the question is if wave (B) has already bottomed at 1.2730 region or not! On the one hour chart (shown a little bit lower) you will see that the price action suggests more upside to come, if you count a decline from 1.3028 as a three wave move. We will wait till Monday, before we send any signal to our subscribers, because firstly we need to see how European markets will react to stress tests results…test was for European banks, remember?! See you soon, Grega H.

Eur/Usd 4h chart :


Eur/Usd chart 1h:


By Gregor Horvat

http://www.ew-forecast.com

Gregor Horvat is based in Slovenia, Central Europe, and has been in Forex market since 2003. He is technical analyst and individual trader who writes a lot of articles and trade plans based on the Fibonacci and Elliot Wave principle. He was working for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. His feature articles have been published in: Thestreet.com, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory, Fxtraders.eu, ForexPros,... He mostly focuses on currencies, oil, gold, and the U.S. stock market.

© 2010 Copyright Gregor Horvat - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in