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Stock Market 1131 S&P 500 Getting Closer...

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Aug 03, 2010 - 03:41 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


close today at S&P 500 1125 has the bulls feeling good about things, and why not. Just a few days ago they were feeling the heat as the market closed in on losing 1080, or critical down trend line support. Think about it folks. Weren't most of you who are bullish feeling pretty badly late last week? Didn't things seem dire? You know they did! Now, we can all go sleep tonight with the S&P 500 just 6 points away from getting back to the last highs at 1131. Things certainly do change fast in this crazy insane game.

We gapped up from the opening bell today and never really looked back. Good economic news 15 minutes in to the trading day took the market up even further than the opening gap up. We spent the rest of the day slowly grinding higher. Back and forth, but with most of the action occurring at the high end of the days trading range. The internals tell us that today's action was for real. Nearly 6 to 1, advancers to decliners, on the New York Stock Exchange, and over 2 to 1 on the Nasdaq. The bulls are snorting, but can claim anything yet. Today gives them a chance to take a breath, and get ready for the charge at S&P 500 1131.

Something took place today that was extremely interesting and important. The Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF), or financial ETF, made a quadruple top breakout at the close. It finished at 15.08, or basically the highs for the day. 15 flat had been a triple top for the past two months. Attempt after attempt failed, which caused decent pullback's each time. Today there was no failure. It opens the door to the large gap at 15.54 to 15.72.

That's big for this very slow moving ETF. 15.54 is nearly 3% away, and that's plenty for the financial bulls. If we get that 3%, then you'll see some strong moves in that group, which has been lagging the overall market quite badly. When the final laggard makes the move, this makes the job, from the perspective of the bears, quite difficult. It opens the door to getting the market over 1131 on the S&P 500. The market has not been able to make a big thrust forward, but now it really has no excuses left not to take out 1131. With the financials set-up to move higher, I think we will get above 1131 in the not distant future.

The commodity stocks are rolling again. Some strong earnings have come out of that sector in the past few days, and this is important as it tells the world things aren't as bad as many are saying it is. I don't know if that's actually true. Maybe these CEO's are judging future gains on what was. They may get sorely disappointed by what may be coming, but for now, they're reporting good things, and the street is buying it. That's all we care about. It's about the market's response, and not what we may think is appropriate. If the commodity stocks keep rocking, and if the financials carry through here, I can't see the bears successfully defending 1131 S&P 500 too much longer.

So we're close to the breakout. If we clear 1131 S&P 500 with force, there's no real resistance until the old highs prior at 1173. You can never be sure we'll get that high, but that's what's available technically should resistance at 1131 get taken out. The breakout has not been made. We'll get a bit more aggressive if it does, but until it does, or until we pull back a bit to unwind, what we have now seems fine. Stay bullish for now, but keep in mind how fast things can change. Respect the bears. Staying long for now and will add when it's appropriate.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2010

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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