Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Gold Stocks Vs Gold – Not A Good Bet - 15th Dec 19
Silver Price Remains in 'Corrective Downtrend' - 15th Dec 19
Amazon - Snow Falling Effect Christmas Lights Outdoor Projector Review - 15th Dec 19
How to FIX Dirty Disk Windows Hard Drive Volume Error 0X80071AC3 - 15th Dec 19
Raffaele Riva and AUREA Are Breaking New Ground in Financial Services Across Europe  - 15th Dec 19
Canadian Cannabis Stocks CRASH as Canopy Growth Hits a Dead End - 14th Dec 19
Retail Sector Isn’t Dead, and These 6% Dividend Paying Stocks Prove It - 14th Dec 19
Top 5 Ways to Add Value to Your Home - 14th Dec 19
Beware Gold Stocks Downside - 13th Dec 19
Fed Says No Interest Rate Hikes In 2020. What About Gold? - 13th Dec 19
The ABC’s of Fiat Money - 13th Dec 19
Why Jo Swinson and the Lib Dems LOST Seats General Election 2019 - Sheffiled Hallam Result - 13th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 BBC Exit Poll Forecast Accuracy Analysis - 12th Dec 19
Technical Analysis Update: Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) - Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) - 12th Dec 19
Silver Miners Pinpoint the Precious Metals’ Outlook - 12th Dec 19
How Google Has Become the Worlds Biggest Travel Company - 12th Dec 19
UK Election Seats Forecasts - Tories 326, Labour 241, SNP 40, Lib Dems 17 - 12th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 Final Seats Per Party Forecast - 12th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI INFLATION Forecasts for General Election Result 2019 - 11th Dec 19
Gold ETF Holdings Surge… But Do They Actually Hold Gold? - 11th Dec 19
Gold, Silver Reversals, Lower Prices and Our Precious Profits - 11th Dec 19
Opinion Pollsters, YouGov MRP General Election 2019 Result Seats Forecast - 11th Dec 19
UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 - 11th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 - Tory Seats Forecast Based on GDP Growth - 11th Dec 19
YouGov's MRP Poll Final Tory Seats Forecast Revised Down From 359 to 338, Possibly Lower? - 10th Dec 19
What UK Economy (Average Earnings) Predicts for General Election Results 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto's UK General Election Parliamentary Seats Forecast 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Lumber is about to rally and how to play it with this ETF - 10th Dec 19
Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Long-term Potential for Gold Remains Strong! - 9th Dec 19
Stock and Financial Markets Review - 9th Dec 19
Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis - 9th Dec 19
Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 - 9th Dec 19
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets - 8th Dec 19
High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal - 8th Dec 19
Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution - 8th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits - 7th Dec 19
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 - 7th Dec 19
You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now - 6th Dec 19
The End of Apple Has Begun - 6th Dec 19
How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? - 6th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast - 6th Dec 19
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? - 6th Dec 19
Precious Metals Ratio Charts - 6th Dec 19
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 6th Dec 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

UK General Election Forecast 2019

Stock Market Head Fake?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Aug 04, 2010 - 08:25 AM GMT

By: Mark_McMillan

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTrade Recommendations: Take no action.

Daily Trend Indications:


- Positions indicated as Green are Long positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

- The State of the Market is used to determine how you should trade. A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will.

- The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with a position. If the BIAS is Bullish but the market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance. The BIAS tells you to exit that trade on "weaker" signals than you might otherwise trade on as the market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

- At Risk is generally neutral represented by "-". When it is "Bullish" or "Bearish" it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

- The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Current ETF positions are:

DIA: Long at $105.26

QQQQ: Long at $46.44

SPY: Long at $111.56

Daily Trading Action

The major index ETFs opened lower and the bears had their way for the first forty-five minutes of trading as the direction was clearly downward after initial indecision in the opening minutes. After the descent, which saw the major indexes sell off nearly one percent, the rest of the day was spent making up for the early session losses. The direction was mostly upward with a countermove that began shortly before noon and that ended halfway through the lunch hour. Gains after that were modest with selling pressure in the final hour causing the major indexes to close with losses of half of one percent or less. All the major index remain in trading states above their 200-Day Moving Averages (DMAs) and with bullish biases. The Russell-2000 (IWM 65.62 -0.53) followed the direction of the major indexes with a loss of 0.8%. The Semiconductor Index (SOX 351.25 -3.69) lost just over one percent and remains in a downtrend state. The Bank Index (KBE 24.59 -0.32) lost more than one percent while the Regional Bank Index (KRE 24.11 -0.13) posted minor losses after having spent some time in positive territory during the session. The 20+ Yr Bonds (TLT 99.32 +0.57) moved inversely to equity indexes but remains below its 20-DMA. NYSE volume was light with just 1.000B shares traded on the NYSE. NASDAQ share volume was also light with just 2.000B shares traded.

There were five economic reports of interest released:

  • Personal Income (Jun) was flat (+0.0%) versus an expected gain of +0.1%
  • Personal Spending (Jun) was flat (+0.0%) as expected
  • PCE Prices - Core (Jun) were flat (+0.0%) versus an expected gain of +0.1%
  • Factory Orders (Jun) fell -1.2% versus an expected fall of -0.5%
  • Pending Homes Sales (Jun) fell -2.6% versus an expected -0.5% fall

The first three reports came out an hour before the open while the latter two reports were released a half hour into the session.

The day was all about whether the bears could instill fear in the bulls. After the run up seen late last week and Monday, some profit taking was in order. The economic reports were nothing particularly stirring but weren't enough to breed pessimism with the Pending Homes Sales report actually beating expectations, even though it was a decrease overall.

Implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 22.63 +0.62) rose most of three percent but remains clearly below its 200-DMA. The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 23.61 +0.13) rose fractionally but remains just under its 200-DMA.

The yield for the 10-year note fell seven basis points to close at 2.89. The price of the near term futures contract for a barrel of crude oil gained $1.21 to close at $82.55.

Market internals were negative with decliners leading advancers 3:2 on the NYSE and by nearly 2:1 on the NASDAQ. Down volume led up volume 2:1 on the NYSE and by 3:1 on the NASDAQ. The index put/call ratio fell 0.20 to close at 1.42. The equity put/call ratio rose three basis points to close at 0.60.

Commentary:

Tuesday's trading action continued on light volume. The bears tried to cause a break down and will still get another chance on Wednesday as the bulls cling tenaciously to all the major indexes closing above their 200-DMAs and actually establishing higher closing highs than seen since the latest move higher began at the beginning of July. We believe there is a reasonable chance that the move lower on Tuesday was just a head-fake as the major indexes look to challenge various resistance levels.

Money flow is now a mixed bag with the Dow ETF (DIA) seeing inflows, the S&P-500 ETF (SPY) in neutral and the NASDAQ-100 ETF (QQQQ) still seeing outflows on a daily basis. This can all snap in the same direction which will likely determine short term trading in the near future.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio. You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com.

If you are receiving these alerts on a free trial, you have access to all of our previous articles and recommendations by clicking here. If you do not recall your username and/or password, please email us at customersupport@stockbarometer.com.

By Mark McMillan

Important Disclosure
Futures, Options, Mutual Fund, ETF and Equity trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy/sell Futures, Options, Mutual Funds or Equities. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this Web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Performance results are hypothetical. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as a lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Investment Research Group and all individuals affiliated with Investment Research Group assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results.
Investment Research Group (IRG), as a publisher of a financial newsletter of general and regular circulation, cannot tender individual investment advice. Only a registered broker or investment adviser may advise you individually on the suitability and performance of your portfolio or specific investments.
In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and examination of the fact and records relating to such investments. Past performance of our recommendations is not an indication of future performance. The publisher shall have no liability of whatever nature in respect of any claims, damages, loss, or expense arising out of or in connection with the reliance by you on the contents of our Web site, any promotion, published material, alert, or update.
For a complete understanding of the risks associated with trading, see our Risk Disclosure.

© 2010 Copyright Mark McMillan - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules