Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Fiat Paper Covers Gold Rock

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Aug 10, 2010 - 12:36 PM GMT

By: Captain_Hook


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEvidenced by Tuesday’s drubbing of gold and silver into COMEX (paper market) options expiry for the metals, which is an all too common occurrence that goes unchecked by regulators, it’s apparent the banking cartel’s resolve regarding suppressing metal’s prices is particularly strong at present, with the tell sign here being generous numbers of put owners got paid – paid big time. If cartel members were the writers of these put contracts, such an outcome would be expensive, so it must be concluded the writers were likely hair-brained hedge fund managers, possibly goaded into these positions by cartel members. Then, it was easy for cartel members to sell gold down Tuesday as lower volumes associated with summer doldrums left few obstacles to overcome.

The following is commentary that originally appeared at Treasure Chests for the benefit of subscribers on Thursday, July 29th, 2010.

And the really good part of it from their perspective is the demoralization of gold bugs gaming a trade back up to options related equilibrium pricing, somewhere north of $1200. Undoubtedly Tuesday’s price action did not compute to these types at all, meaning they will be slow to return to the market. This is where the title of this piece comes from, paper (COMEX) covers rock (physical gold); as the continued irony associated with precious metals prices, given physical supply constraints, gets more profound with each passing day. What’s more, irony also lies in the observation not only does the cartel routinely drive gold lower at options expiry when paper pricing (COMEX) put / call ratios are low, but now, apparently this will also happen when they are high as well; leaving the question, exactly when does a technicals / internals trader buy / own the stuff. (i.e. clearly Tuesday’s attack on gold and silver was designed to discourage.)

By the third week of August volumes should be picking up again however, as vacationers will be returning to prepare for September at that time, with this putting a different slant on things afterwards. That is to say, the bureaucracy’s price managers will not be able to push the markets around quite so easily anymore, so what happened in gold on Tuesday should not happen again. This of course does not mean gold and silver would escape liquidity issues if they develop going into the fall, which is what we expect considering stocks continue to follow the seasonal pattern closely. That being said, with seasonals for both gold and silver strong from now until year end, although prices might need to go lower, don’t expect an all out collapse. Remember, we are only correcting 1 of C and then it’s off to the races again.

That being said, let’s take this opportunity to check gold’s count and technicals for clues as to what we can expect, and attempt to match them with our expectations for the general equity complex, currencies, etc. First, I should make it clear my expectation for stocks is the seasonal pattern will continued to be followed closely, with this characterization provided by John Taylor (attached above) likely not far off the mark, as follows:

“Although it is more likely that the equity and credit markets will not begin their major decline until the last week of August, the odds favor an unimpressive month ahead which means that we are at the end of the exciting part of the rally of the past two months. By the end of next month, equities will be headed lower, credit spreads will widen sharply, and government bonds will begin a rally to new all time highs. Our completely technical cyclical work implies that there will be a return to dark times in September and October, with a sharp decline driven by liquidity and solvency issues likely to set the world back on a recessionary course.”

In returning to the near-term, and in checking the seasonal chart for the S&P 500 (SPX) attached above, stocks should cycle down next week (in fear of a bad Employment Report), but then recover into options expiry in the third week of August, which is consistent with John Taylor’s views, and my own. What does this mean for gold? If stocks do in fact trace out the aforementioned pattern, then the dollar ($) should get a lift next week, pause for weeks two and three in August, and then rally hard into October as equities are hit. And it just so happens this thinking is confirmed in the gold chart(s), where an interim low is close at hand, but where an ultimate low, the one fully correcting 1 of C, is not put in until the fall. (i.e. in October ahead of stocks.) (See Figure 1)

Figure 1

I see gold is climbing overnight, as expected, from the oversold condition pictured above. As per the count however, don’t be surprised if gold has one more minor degree wave lower next week if the $ bounces (and liquidity dries up temporarily), in order to complete the count. Then, gold should enjoy a stronger rally to trace out the Minor Degree b wave also indicted above, this being the move anticipated during August, consistent with the larger equity complex, currencies, etc. It will be informative to see what kind of volume we get out of this rally in August. If it does not break above the trend-line indicated on the chart below measuring the ratio between the DB Gold Double Long and DB Gold Double Short ETN's, then the anticipated declines in precious metals prices into the fall could be worse than we are envisioning at this point. (See Figure 2)

Figure 2

Unfortunately we cannot carry on past this point, as the remainder of this analysis is reserved for our subscribers. Of course if the above is the kind of analysis you are looking for this is easily remedied by visiting our web site to discover more about how our service can help you in not only this regard, but also in achieving your financial goals. As you will find, our recently reconstructed site includes such improvements as automated subscriptions, improvements to trend identifying / professionally annotated charts, to the more detailed quote pages exclusively designed for independent investors who like to stay on top of things. Here, in addition to improving our advisory service, our aim is to also provide a resource center, one where you have access to well presented 'key' information concerning the markets we cover.

And if you are interested in finding out more about how our advisory service would have kept you on the right side of the equity and precious metals markets these past years, please take some time to review a publicly available and extensive archive located here, where you will find our track record speaks for itself.

Naturally if you have any questions, comments, or criticisms regarding the above, please feel free to drop us a line. We very much enjoy hearing from you on these matters.

Good investing all.

By Captain Hook

Treasure Chests is a market timing service specializing in value-based position trading in the precious metals and equity markets with an orientation geared to identifying intermediate-term swing trading opportunities. Specific opportunities are identified utilizing a combination of fundamental, technical, and inter-market analysis. This style of investing has proven very successful for wealthy and sophisticated investors, as it reduces risk and enhances returns when the methodology is applied effectively. Those interested in discovering more about how the strategies described above can enhance your wealth should visit our web site at Treasure Chests

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Comments within the text should not be construed as specific recommendations to buy or sell securities. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, as we are not registered brokers or advisors. Certain statements included herein may constitute "forward-looking statements" with the meaning of certain securities legislative measures. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the above mentioned companies, and / or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Do your own due diligence.

Copyright © 2010 Inc. All rights reserved.

Unless otherwise indicated, all materials on these pages are copyrighted by Inc. No part of these pages, either text or image may be used for any purpose other than personal use. Therefore, reproduction, modification, storage in a retrieval system or retransmission, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or otherwise, for reasons other than personal use, is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.

Captain Hook Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in