Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Iran's Option In Case Of Attack On Its Nuclear Facilities

Politics / Iran Sep 27, 2010 - 12:23 PM GMT

By: Global_Intel_Report

Politics

INCIDENT: Sources in the Gulf region report that Iran is preparing for a possible attack by Israel and/or the United States on one or more of its nuclear production units by stockpiling arms and munitions with its proxy militias in Kuwait and Bahrain. This comes as Bahrain arrests 23 opposition leaders accused of terrorism offences and hints that Iran is behind an alleged plot to overthrow the government.


SIGNIFICANCE: Bahrain's attempted coup reports should be taken seriously, as Iran knows that its best chance of fighting the US and/or Israel is by proxy. Hitting Bahrain hard would greatly upset the overall security situation in the Middle East and Gulf region.

BACKGROUND ANALYSIS: Earlier this month, the tiny Kingdom of Bahrain announced the arrest of 23 men whom it accused of wanting to commit acts of terrorism and plotting to overthrow the government. Bahrain may well be the smallest of Arab countries yet it contributes greatly to the overall security of the Gulf region and the Middle East. Among other things Bahrain serves as the regional headquarters to the US Navy fleet operating in the Persian Gulf. Strategically located at about halfway up the important sea lanes in the Gulf and through which most of the world's oil is carried from extraction sites to refineries aboard super tankers, the island nation of Bahrain is linked to the Saudi Arabian mainland by a 15-mile (24 km) causeway over the azure waters of the Persian Gulf. The causeway takes one into Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province, where the largest Saudi oil fields are located.

Saudi's Eastern Province is largely Shiite. Bahrain's population of 729,000 is composed of 70% of Shiites and the rest are Sunni. The Sunnis hold all the top positions of power in the country, from the king on down to every major office. The Shiites, who generally feel they are treated as second-rate citizens, relate to their coreligionists in the nearby Islamic Republic. Iran periodically likes to remind the Bahrainis that their island used to belong to Iran and that the Iranians have not forgotten that. This is a part of the world where tensions run high and conflicts can easily ignite, particularly given that all the ingredients for an explosive situation are present: oil, religion and politics.

BOTTOM LINE:

Sounding the Alarm in Bahrain: The events that unfolded in recent days in Bahrain could represent a very real and present danger to the security of the region. The men arrested in Bahrain were said to be working for "outside forces", the term usually meant to indicate Iran. Pointing the finger directly at the Islamic Republic can prove to be a dangerous gamble. Yet that language remains clear. The report of an attempted coup in Bahrain is something that must be taken very seriously and should send alarm sirens wailing all the way from Manama, the capital of the tiny kingdom to the corridors of power in Washington.

Iran's Choices: Tehran realizes two very important facts in case of attack against its nuclear facilities. First is that if attacked by Israel and/or the United States it will be incapable of striking back directly seeing the US' domination of the skies and Israel's quasi-impregnable air defense system (with US contribution). And second, Iran also knows that it must retaliate at all costs or lose all credibility. The solution? Fight them (the US and/or Israel) by proxy. And hit them hard. And make it hurt.

How do they go about this? Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite paramilitary movement, is in a perfect position to hit Israeli towns and cities from the north and could target large centers of population as far south as Hadera and possible further. Hezbollah's arsenal includes long-range field artillery and Iranian-supplied medium-range rockets. From the south, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement, can target Israeli locations, including the suburbs of Tel Aviv. Hamas' artillery is more crude and their Qasam rockets are home made and inaccurate, though they can still cause damage and casualties.

In the Gulf, Iran supports, arms, and trains Kuwait's very own Hezbollah, who in turn is believed to have been supplying training and weapons to the Bahraini Shiites, such as the 23 men who were recently arrested in Bahrain. And, of course, one must not forget the influence Tehran carries in Iraq, where the US still has some 50,000 troops deployed and where Iranian-backed militias would very likely go on a shooting spree.

How seriously should one take the accusations? Iran has periodically reminded Bahrain that the island is/was part of Iran. And if attacked by Israel and/or the US, Iran might decide to push the envelope - especially if they feel they have popular support on the island.

Source: http://www.globalintelligencereport.com/...

By www.GlobalintelligenceReport.com. For Breaking Geopolitical Intelligence, economic forecasting, trends and World News visit the Global Intelligence Report.

© 2010 Copyright Global Intelligence Report - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in